Moonee Valley is a precarious track with its tight final corner and very short straight; often advantageous to be up on the pace. It pays to keep tabs on the race day pattern whether it be a leaders bias, jockeys avoiding the rail or a swoopers paradise. With barriers often playing an important role, there always seems to be a couple of long priced winners throughout the day.
The weight-for-age $500,000 William Reid Stakes is the feature Thursday night at the Valley; a thorough analysis of the 9 race card is as follows.
Race 1 Benchmark 78 1500m
Hard race, not much confidence but leaning to Abohar. Ran well last start in the Tressady Stakes behind a good mare, the dry track form is a concern. Although he has plenty of upside, willing to risk Clemency if short odds are about. The import Raw Impulse is a big watch first up for the Weir stable, keep safe.
Best at odds: the rank outsider, Extra Noble has a stack of weight and may be looking for further but has run well against much better horses in the past.
Race 2 Benchmark 78 2040m
Word of Mouth loves Moonee Valley and can bounce back returning from Sydney. Zahspeed is working up in distance, rock hard fit after 3 runs this prep looks like one of the dangers. Think Firehouse Rock presents a bit of value with the good second up and distance record. Concede chances to Warrior of Fire, Tenacitus and Scelto in another very tricky race.
Best at odds: Scelto led all the way to beat the flying Pemberley last start, worth a crack each way at $21.
Race 3 3YO Plate 1200m
Although Sooboog beat him home last start, leaning towards Stellar Collision to turn the tables away from the Flemington straight; not much between them. With form around Mahuta, Palentino and Holler, Demonstrate must go in wider exotics first up. Albeit in harder races, Keen Array has been horrible this preparation, with the rise of 9.5kg I can’t see any value at the 2-3$ quote.
Best at odds: none
Race 4 Alexandra Stakes 1600m
Not much went right for Jacqui’s Joy last start in the Kewney Stakes, had some backing and good form prior, should be hard to hold out with race fitness under her belt. Labdien ticks all the boxes with her strong run last start. Lazumba also with a chance to keep the winning streak going. Sweet Redemption is hard to line up through it’s interstate form but with early money it would pay to keep safe.
Best at odds: Ballybrit can run a cheeky race at good odds down in the weights.
Race 5 Open Handicap 955m
Bullpit’s second infront of the quarterback two starts ago makes him top pick. Sheidel brings strong Ascot form and should not be risked first up. Grane has been up forever but his second behind Malaguerra last start puts him right in this. Beau Rada grows a fifth leg at moonee valley and must be included.
Rose of Falvelon best of the rest. Update: after the scratching, throw unanimously into your quaddie instead.
Best at odds: Fab Fevola will give you a run for your money out infront. If the leaders are winning he’s definitely worth a ticket each way, problem is he never wins. Maybe 10$ for the place is more appealing.
Quaddie numbers: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9,
Race 6 William Reid Stakes 1200m
Think that Lucky Hussler will be far too good for this field, very unlucky to not win the C.F ORR stakes of the freshen up last start. The Quarterback beat the superstar in Chautauqua last start with no weight, clearly good enough but not sure if i like him as much around Moonee Valley. Flamberge was huge first up, his second up record is not as good but he loves the 1200. Place preferred for the super consistent Gregers. The 3 year olds are all fancied in the market but unsure if they will measure up here; Holler the pick of them.
Best at odds: Flamberge is forever underrated and always pops up at big odds, $12 is definitely worth consideration each way.
Quaddie numbers: Its all or nothing, Lucky Hussler wins with luck in transit. Throw a blanket over the rest.
either 1, or 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 12
Race 7 Sunlike Stakes 1600m
Wawail was never in doubt last time, box seats from the barrier and looks the testing material. Felicienne was very good sneaking up on the inside of the track last start, should run well again. Fenway dropping back in distance is a query, but her form must be respected. Anaphora can bounce back after a shocker last start. Have lost patience with Noble Protector and am willing to risk.
Best at odds: Anfitriona ran well fresh behind Rough Justice, has form second up and at the track. Certainly isn’t hopeless at $51.
Quaddie numbers: 1, 3, 9, 12
Race 8 Benchmark 70 1200m
Horror race to finish the card with all the top picks drawing wide, leaning towards Cosmic Lights. Needs a bit of luck from the barrier but with plenty of upside he’s the top pick. Caprese stormed home to finish close up at this track and distance last start. Heza Ripper has run well in a recent jumpout, should go well first up. Jetello won well here last prep, not sure he’s going as well this time around. Update: throw the 9 in your quaddie after the late scratching of Cosmic Lights
Best at odds: Corcovado has put a few good runs together, 34$ looks an attractive price.
4, 6, 9
Best Bets of the Card
Race 6 No.1 Lucky Hussler W@3.50
Race 7 No.3 Wawail E.W@7.50:2.50