Caulfield // 26th March

Caulfield is a unique course where form is critical. Inside barriers are better for the shorter distance range due to the medium to small home straight; those in a prominent position at the bend in a slowly run race will usually kick on to win. Its always handy to note any significant late money for a horse, late money is generally good money at Caulfield.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the $150,000 Victoria Handicap (Race 7) and the $150,000 Easter Cup (Race 8). Below there can be seen a detailed analysis of all 9 races.

Race 1 2YO Handicap 1100m

These 2YO races are always a challenge, never smart to bet unless you’ve got inside knowledge or you follow the money trail. Without a lot of confidence have settled on O’Sheas Wazamba. Started a short priced favourite on debut after winning a few trials, with the weight swing i think she can turn the tables on Gretna. In for third is Highland Beat. Boasts a second behind Extreme Choice but is a bit hit and miss it seems. Can see no value about the favourite Najmaat at the short price, the form from that race hasn’t been strong, although Nick Hall on first up from the stable may be a good indication of how she’s going.

Best at odds: Tokelau can run a nice race at 17$, has previously beaten home the favourite Najmaat.

Race 2 Benchmark 78 2400m

Winter Palace looks ready to win after his effort last start. With no weight after the claim, he just needs to slot into a nice position from barrier 10 to run over the top of them. High Church is jumping from 1600 to 2400, fitness may be an issue but most of Lloyd Williams horses seem to thrive over further. Adirondack’s a query to run a solid 2400, but has been progressing nicely; check the results of Moonee Valley on thursday to see if the form holds up. Loving Home isn’t without claims on the quick backup, but the odds are a turn off.

Best at odds: Aggregator could be worth putting in some exotics, rarely wins but has run well in tougher races in the past.

Race 3 Benchmark 84 2000m

Many of these runners are coming through the same formline. Pindan Pearl overraced last start and is primed for a win this prep after three solid runs, has the weight turnaround on Tears of Joy. Tears of Joy was given every chance last start and won well, the rise in weight while going up in class is the concern. Testability is just too short for a horse thats never won further than 1600, down in the weights but up in class. Not confident she’s worth the $3.

Best at odds: Winta Chiller missed the start last time and might be ready to show her best, each way seems the safe play.

Race 4 3YO Fillies Handicap 1100m

If she’s right, Petits Filous should be far too good for this lot. Her trials have indicated she’s back in good order, her only failure thus far is a 3.8L 10th behind the star Buffering where she started a short priced favourite! Jalan Jalan is another talented type who with a good run in transit may be able to turn the tables on the favourite from their previous clash. The winner should come from the two above but one for exotics might be Snitzel Music. Performed well after the huge jump in class last preparation, monitor the betting first up.

Best at odds: (Asides from Snitzel Music) Billabong Babe second up will lead the way, down in the weights might prove hard to catch. 41$ is appealing.

Race 5 Mares Handicap 1100m

Miss Promiscuity has never won second up but her first up run behind Malaguerra was very promising, looks well placed here. Am a very big fan of Sabatini, ticks all the form boxes and will by flying home with the 3 kilo claim, Miss Promiscuity’s race fitness makes her the pick of the two. Tycoon Tara’s best is good enough, but pretty confident the winner comes from the top two in this one. Enquare has been below par for a long time now, first up for the new stable might pay dividends to follow any market moves.

Best at odds: Kansas Sunflower is a talented horse that might be looking for further, could sneak into the placings first up at $21.

Race 6 Benchmark 84 1800m

Ungrateful Ellen has a good second up record, she ran against much better horses last preparation and if right should be winning this. Gingerboy ran well first up, his last run at Caulfield he beat home the Adelaide Cup winner Purple Smile. Master Zephyr was well backed first up but just found the trip a bit short, out to 1800 should run well. Houdini The Great can run well with no weight on his back after coming from last at his previous run.

Best at odds: none

Quaddie numbers: Not a high degree of confidence in this one so will be going wide in the first leg.

1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 13

Race 7 Victoria Handicap 1400m

Tough race. Red Bomber loves caulfield, unbeaten third up and has over a 50% winning strike rate. At double figures looks a good bet each way. Black Heart Bart was huge fresh and must be included, the odds are the only thing making him second pick. Charmed Harmony ran well by himself on the far side of the flemington track last start, this is his pet distance and if he can find the form from last prep he can win. Tried and Tired was back to winning ways last start, winning form is good form, must be included.

Best at odds: Coronation Shallan ran well first up, not sure if she can turn around the margin on tried and tired but with race fitness could box seat and run a good race at odds.

Quaddie numbers: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13

Race 8 Easter Cup 2000m

Awesome Rock was very unlucky not to take out the Australian Cup last start, a similar performance here sees him go very close. Leebaz hasn’t won for a while but always runs an honest race, the drop in class looks ideal. Lidari is a very talented horse but can’t see him turning the tables on Awesome Rock based on their Peter Young stakes matchup. The Hickmott pair Observational and Doumaran can run well out to 2000m.

Best at odds: Observational might be ready to fire with the rise in distance, each way at $21 appeals.

Quaddie numbers: 1, 2, 7

Update: the scratchings have taken a major toll on this race, for quaddie punters:
Extra Zero always runs his honest self but cant win one, i’ll be leaving him out. Puccini is too inconsistent. The one i’m putting in is Guardini, he has some strong overseas form and if he turns up could give this race a real shake.

Quaddie numbers: 2, 5, 7

Race 9 3YO Handicap 2000m

Not an easy finish for quaddie punters. If the back markers get their chance Chabaud looks a live hope after her stellar performance in the Tasmanian Oaks. Hardern ran a nice race behind some good horses last start, a repeat of that performance and he wins here, the wide draw demotes him to second pick. Cool Chap should get the dream run from the barrier, if he can stay the trip he’s a chance.

Best at odds: Last Typhoon will get the trip and can be in a winning position on the corner from a good barrier, 13$ is a decent price.

Quaddie numbers: 1, 2, 6

Best Bets of the Card

Race 5 Miss Promiscuity W@4.00

Race 2: Winter Palace E.W@9.00:2.90

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s