The Box Seat gets it’s first crack at Headquarters on Anzac Day. Flemington is a fantastic track where every horse generally gets it’s chance which makes for great betting. Not all horses handle the straight racing that takes place between 1000-1200 metres, resulting in many long priced winners. It pays to take note of which side of the track is the winning side on the day. Flemington form is usually a big tick when studying up. The track is rated a Soft 5 but with the good weather between now and then the condition is most likely to be upgraded to the Good 4 – Good 3 range on Monday.
The headline races for Monday at Flemington are the $200,000 VRC St Leger (Race 5) and the $120,000 Anzac Day Stakes (Race 2). A race by race analysis including one for exotics, best bets of the card and quadrella selections are provided below.
Race 1 3YO Fillies Benchmark 70 1000m
Hard to tip against Miss Vista here. She was well backed on debut and smashed the clock being eased up on the line in a reasonable Ballarat maiden. This is obviously tougher but this isn’t the greatest field. She should be winning but I won’t be taking the odds on first time up the Flemington straight. Dance With Fontein looks over the odds at $13. Beat home Bella Capri (subsequent winner Saturday) over this trip and grade last start. Also has a claiming apprentice, the move from country to metro the query. Fleur Fatale is first up off a year long break. She was scratched on Saturday for this event and isn’t without claims. 58 kilos is no easy task but she looks one of the major players. Maddie Moo Moo is another Weir runner with good fresh form. Blinkers on; she can run well here. Concede chances to Georgie’s Luce, Scandimania and World of Hope in an open race to kick off proceedings.
One for exotics: Dance With Fontein ($13)
Race prediction: 6-2-1-10
Race 2 Anzac Day Stakes 1400m
Smart As You Think ran a nice race on debut. He has a two kilo swing on the winner for a 2.5 length defeat. The race fitness and experience are big ticks; top pick on an each way basis. Pyx Chamber was well backed and won pretty easily last time out at Sandown. He meets many of these worse off at the weights but will be very hard to beat again as the step up in trip looks ideal. October Tutu certainly isn’t without claims. He was run down by Pyx Chamber but just kept on fighting to go down by just over a length. $10 looks over the odds. Mr Markou has the winkers first time and hasn’t been far away in some stronger races. Throssell next best. Biased Witness looks unders at $4 off a strong win in Pakenham maiden class.
One for exotics: October Tutu ($10)
Race prediction: 10-1-6-2
Race 3 Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1610m
Loveitt showed an impressive turn of foot in Wednesday class last start on the soft track coming from last to score impressively. This is tougher but she was a mile back and the step up in distance looks ideal. Craig Williams jumps on and clearly the one to beat for mine. Testability is the danger. She was well backed in this class at Caulfield and ran well. 51 after the claim, the mile looks her go and I like the Tears of Joy form. Hijack Hussy was pretty poor last start. She had a cruisy run and was entitled to do more in the straight. If she shows the turn of foot she did the two starts prior she can win. 60 kilos is no easy task. Long Face Grace runs well second up and her one crack at 1600 was an impressive win. Could be worth a bet at $16. Marli Magic should be kept safe. John Sadler has two in the race including the favourite yet Tom Sadler jumps on the $21 shot.
One for exotics: Long Face Grace ($16)
Race prediction: 9-12-1-6
Race 4 3YO Handicap 1400m
The trick to Sir Sagamore seems to be a good track. He was desperately unlucky having his run blocked last start and should’ve finished much closer. Well weighted, now gains a start and looks a good each way bet at $12. Barrier 11 the only query. Un de Sceaux ran okay behind some classy horses last time. Looks well poised in this class and 17$ looks overs. Turbo Miss has drawn wide but her form is too good to ignore. Would be top pick if a senior rider was on board. Iron Boss wasn’t far away first up last prep in a maiden. He went on beat Tally next start and if he runs to that effort he can challenge here. Air Apparent was scratched on Saturday for this race. She likes Flemington and might be ready to show her best from last preparation.
One for exotics: Un de Sceaux ($17)
Race prediction: 19-12-2-13
Race 5 VRC St Leger 2800m
Cool Chap was no match for the winner last start but he still ran through the line strongly. 2800 seems as though it will suit based on how his preparation has gone so far. I can’t see anything from behind him in that race turning the tables. Theres no doubt Etymology is well placed in this grade and distance. If he runs up to his Vic Derby run at Flemington he’ll be very hard to beat. $2 is unders for a horse who has only won once. Joueur looks like he’ll get the distance which is a big tick. Huge class jump but Oliver jumps on board and could be a nice each way bet at 13$. $26 when markets opened. These look the three but Hardern ran well behind Cool Chap at 2000 two starts ago. Hasn’t drawn the carpark today and well weighted. Distance the obvious query.
One for exotics: Joueur ($13)
Race prediction: 3-1-7-2
Quaddie selections: 1, 3
Race 6 Anzac Cup 4YO+ 2530m
Big Memory just keeps finding a way to get beaten. The Red Bomber and Nevis form looks super and think he’ll be rock hard fit after a great performance over 2400 last start. The step up in 800 metres may have taken its toll over the latter stages of the Mornington Cup. The old battler Tuscan Fire can put in an improved performance here after finally drawng well. He does his best work at Flemington and wasn’t too far away in the Mornington Cup before having to burn to lead at Terang last start. Could give a sight at $21. Tintaglia was simply dominant and Sandown on the heavy track. This is a huge class jump but if she runs anything like last start she can be in the finish. Swacadelic beat Real Love and Signoff over this distance. His best is good enough but needs to lift. High Church just held on after leading last start in an easier race at Morphettville. Down in the weights and with the good barrier, if he decides to lead he might prove hard to run down.
One for exotics: Tuscan Fire ($21)
Race prediction: 1-4-12-2
Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 4, 12
Race 7 Open Handicap 1700m
Nevis was fantastic last start. He jumped well to take the lead, railed well and never looked out of second gear with some quality gallopers unable to make ground. Drawn wide today and up in the weights, should be very hard to beat. Atlantis Dream looks the danger coming from well back last time. Goes well at the track and has a good third up record; I don’t think the 2.5kg swing is enough to turn the tables. Also drawn wide. Petrology is getting better with every run this prep. Drawn perfectly, if he shows his best he could blow them away. Turnitaround ran well first up. Suited out to this distance and loves the track, poor second up record the query. Inspector closed well last start and has drawn wide again. He’ll be a long way back. Hans Holbein is a big watch first up for the Hickmott stable.
One for exotics: Turnaround ($21)
Race prediction: 1-4-7-15
Quaddie selections: 1
Race 8 Benchmark 84 1200m
Very open race. We’ve Got This thrives down the Flemington straight. He was scratched from the Bel Esprit on Saturday for this and despite the big weight looks a great chance here. Good fresh stats as well. Supido runs very well fresh and loves the straight track. Won his last 4 and is clearly the one to beat. This is tougher, 2.20 looks unders. Zupacharged really got going late in an on pace dominated race last start. Crossed the line with Saturdays listed winner Sheidel, could be the blowout at 26$. Duibio loves the straight and does his best work kept fresh. Illustrious Lad was dominant in Adelaide in a weak race. He is also proven down the straight and must be considered despite the form being poor out of his last race. Chivalry is first up for the Weir stable. Face Forward can bounce back.
One for exotics: Zupacharged ($26)
Race prediction: 2-7-8-15
Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 15, 18
Best Bets of the Card
Race 4: Sir Sagamore E.W@10:3.40
Race 6: Big Memory W@3.60
Race 7: Nevis W@3.80
Side note: we recommend taking advantage of Ladbrokes Odds Boost when placing bets