Race 2 Port Adelaide Cup 2500m
Zanteca is edging towards a win. His effort over this distance in the Lexus was fantastic. Wasn’t disgraced in this race last year as a short favourite. Drops 8.5kg here and gets the gun jock in the saddle. Master Zephyr was nominated for a race at Flemington and i think he’s much more suited here. Probably wasn’t in the best ground at Warrnambool and he did make his move earlier than the three that finished ahead of him. Has won at 2500 before which is a big tick. Snow Secret had a nice Australian debut. Easily beat Zanteca on that occasion but is a lot worse off at the weights. Dont discount Falago at big odds. He tends to mix his form but his best is good enough and ran a nice race in the Mornington Cup. Tunes always runs well at Morphettville. If you put a line through his mornington cup failure he can run into the placings here.
Verdict: Think Zanteca can figure here. Zanteca W@5.50
Race 4 Centaurea Stakes 2015m
It’s hard to line up Gabella’s form but she does seem to be getting better with every run this preparation. Might want it further now but her effort from the back at Caulfield 3 weeks ago was an eye-catcher. Blinkers first time is a tick. Into the Mist beat a similar field a fortnight ago and seemed to do it with a bit in hand. She’s way up in the weights and the 2000 is a query. No doubting she’s in career best form. Inclined to put Loveitt in the mix here at huge odds. Always finishes hard. Felicienne might appreciate the step up in trip. Drawn very wide and loomed to win but couldn’t finish it off last start. Might be able to turn the tables with the 3.5kg swing on the winner. Metaphorical next best.
Verdict: Gabella looks well weighted to win here, might have something small on Loveitt too. $12 was a steal at market open for the former. Gabella W@6.00
Race 5 R.A Lee Stakes 1600m
Alpine Eagle could be the next best thing. He has a devastating turn of foot on his day but has been hindered with injuries. If he’s right he just wins this race. Atlantis Dream is the horse with race fitness here and looks ready to break through. Down in the weights here and it would be a surprise to not see her in the finish. Prince of Penzance looks over the odds here. He ran a cracker first up in the Memsie last prep over 1400 and a 2L defeat to Boban looks pretty good form for this (Not to mention a Melbourne Cup winner). The rest of these look a class below but Tonopah his claims as does Qadir.
Verdict: Will be watching the betting. If theres any money for Alpine Eagle load up. $3.40 looks a steal.
Race 6 Proud Miss Stakes 1200m
Looks a good betting race. Taking a punt on Runway Star at nice odds here. She’s drawn a better barrier today and really hit her straps late to motor home. Stokes and Tourneur always fire in the big races. I Love It was first up after a spell and just faded late in a hot Robert Sangster stakes behind Precious Gem. She loves it over 1200 and has a very good second up record. Looks the one to beat from the good gate. Tuscan Sling loomed to win in the same race but just couldn’t finish it off. Gets the 1kg swing for 0.2L margin on the top-weight and on mathematics should probably be winning. Kayjay’s Joy ran a cracker first up as well. Was backed off the map on that occasion. What did she beat though? My Poppette chose Adelaide over Melbourne today and was an eye catcher first up. The form has been franked but this is significantly harder and she’s drawn off the track. Private Secretary is another with claims.
Verdict: Open race but think Runway Star can take it out. Runway Star W@8.50.
Race 7 Goodwood Stakes 1200m
This ones as open as they come. Stack of chances. The Quarterback had it all to do against the track bias last time and still ran very well. Beat home the favourite over this distance a few starts ago and not entirely sure why he’s at $21. Overs. Miss Promiscuity looked to be travelling well in the Sangster before the fall. In career best form and looks a very big threat with just 54 on her back from the good gate. Flamberge won this race last year. If you put a line through his soft failure in the TJ Smith he would be a lot shorter odds here. Carries a stack of weight and has drawn wide but you’d be a fool to dismiss him. Black Heart Bart started favourite last year in this race and motored home but didn’t figure in the finish. Despite his stats i think he’s better over 1400. He can definitely win but looks a bit short in this field. Under the Lourve is forever running on and can run some slick late sectionals. Looks a danger here but he’s a non winner at this level. Admiral and Supido next best. Can Super One measures up? I don’t think so.
Verdict: Another open race but i’ll be having bets on The Quarterback@$21 and Miss Promiscuity@$34.