Eagle Farm // 4th June

Queensland racing takes us to Eagle Farm this weekend, for the running of the $500,000 Queensland Oaks. Weather looks a disaster for Saturday, indicating the track will more than likely be heavy. Look for strong Heavy form.

R1 Bracken Ridge Tav. The Phoenix 1400m

Archives won well last start in a fairly big race at Doomben. McDonald retains the ride and looks the one to beat here. Jericho ran a close second to Archives last start. No weight turnaround but will be better for the run. Drawn in the carpark the only query. Redouble wasn’t too far off those two last start. Was drawn towards the inside last time but out wide here. Will have to improve a fair bit to win. One that could cause an upset is Two Shoes. Ran well behind Sacred Elixir last time and actually loses 2kgs on that run. The each way odds look good here.

One To Watch: Two Shoes

Race Prediction: 1-3-12-4

R2 Amgrow Lightning Hcp 1000m

Very open race this. Furnaces has shown what he’s capable of before. Drawn the widest of the bunch here which won’t help his cause. Disappointing last start but has the quality. Felines absolutely loves it first up. Bowman on board is a huge tick and rarely runs a bad race. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Shamalia run competitively, however she won a recent trial by 4.5 lengths! Wide barrier won’t help. but good to see her back here. Keep very handy. Hardline won a huge race in NZ over a year ago, and won 2/3 since then. Yet to lose first up in a short career, and this will be a challenge, but will be giving it all. Into The Red won well just over a month ago, and will be flashing home late from a wide barrier. Not hopeless. Another who will give this a crack at decent odds is Espiritu. Won 4/4 first up and been running in some decent races. Down in the weights and drawn inside will help.

One To Watch: Shamalia

Race Prediction: 4-3-8-5

R3 Pages Event Eagle Farm Cup 2200m

Maurus was super in the Doomben cup last start. Is a horse that hardly ever runs a poor race. Blake Shinn picks up the ride in a fairly small field. Unbeaten on a heavy track and think it’s the best bet here. Mighty Lucky scored well last time out to win the Lord Mayors Cup. Same weight as the faves and only 1 third from two starts on a heavy track, however showed its quality last time; keep handy. Volkstok’n’barrell is yet to race on a heavy track, however has the quality to win here. Think the unknown form on this sort of track is a bit risky, but he will run well.

One To Watch: Mighty Lucky

Race Prediction: 4-1-5-2

R4 Landfill Daybreak Lover 1400m

Kimberley Star was very good last start, finishing 1.4lengths 3rd in a big race at Scone. McDonald on board is a big tick and she has gone 3:2-0-1 on heavy tracks. She’ll be the one to beat. Sold For Song has had a very promising start to her career. Two good wins at Doomben last prep and two close seconds this prep. Untried on a heavy track which may be the only query here. Perfect Dare hasn’t had any wet track form to date. If he can handle the track well, he’ll be right in this. The Virginian went from a 3.3length win on debut to only a few lengths back in the GC Guineas. Certainly has potential for this but yet to race on wet track.

One To Watch: The Virginian

Race Prediction: 12-11-9-6

R5 Designline Graphics Juanmo 1200m

Just about every horse in this race has a claim. Get the dartboard out. Miss Cover Girl is a good horse who has shown what she’s capable of in the past. 1 start for 1 win on heavy track, but drawn wide. Serenade faces a similar race to her last race, and no reason she can’t win here. Sultry Feeling is a good horse who can run a nice race here from barrier 2. Fairly consistent and raced 13 times over this distance, in with a shot. Adorabubble does run well over a wet track and finished off very nicely last start. Very good each way chance. Alucinari is a good second up horse who can run a race here too.

One To Watch: Adorabubble

Race Prediction: 2-18-1-9

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 6 9 18

R6 Mirvac Qtc Cup 1300m

Spill The Beans has been very impressive in last two runs. Very low in weights and looks as though it’ll be very tough to beat here. Untried on heavy but has won on a soft track. Eloping looks a good bet here too. Down in the weights and blitzed the field last time out to score impressive victory. Has the quality but hasn’t won on heavy track. We all know that Kaepernick is a good horse, however due to the weather conditions, is a likely scratching. Snippets Land scored a huge victory last time in the BRC Sprint at very nice odds. Strung together some very good performances and wouldn’t surprise many here. Target In Sight was behind Malaguerra in the BTC Cup last start. Handles the wet well and is a good chance.

One To Watch: Snippets Land

Race Prediction: 11-4-9-3

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 9 11

R7 Treasury Casino/hotel Qld Oaks 2400m

Another dartboard needed for this Group 1 contest. Kebede beat home a few of these horses last start. No change in weight and should be up towards the end once again. Imposing Lass is a horse with great quality. Shown us how good she is this prep going 3 from 4 starts. Falkenberg is an up and coming horse who ran very well once he got clear last start. If he can avoid trouble in traffic here he’ll have his chance. Provocative is yet to run on a heavy track, but if the start of her career is anything to go by, she’ll be competitive here. I think Mount Omei is overs here. Now with Waller and won nicely last start. Will be tough but do like place odds of $11. Sebring Sally ran a huge race last time, and if that’s anything to go by she’s not without a chance here.

One To Watch: Mount Omei

Race Prediction: 3-4-12-19

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 6 12 18 19

R8 Fkg Group Spear Chief Hcp 1500m

Federal is a super horse who rarely runs a bad race. Handles all track conditions and will start favourite here. Form behind Music Magnate looks good. Religify has been oh so consistent lately. Has shown what he’s made of and isn’t out of this. Only query is the extra 100m, might be at full stretch. Hi World is a horse who had a lot of potential a while back, however hasn’t really fulfilled that to date. 2 from 2 on a heavy track which will help him if he is to cause an upset here. Think these three will be tough to beat.

One To Watch: Hi World

Race Prediction: 6-1-2-13

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 6

 

Best Bets:

R2 – #4 Shamalia EW $8.00/$2.50

R3 – #4 Maurus W @ $3.50

R4 – #12 Kimberley Star W @ $3.30

 

Sandown-Hillside // 4th June

We’re going for 4 winning weekends on the trot at Sandown-Hillside on Saturday. This Saturday sees some better weather forecasted than the previous two weeks. The track is currently rated a Good 4 at the time of publication; if anything we may see improvement to a Good 3 by the weekend provided the showers stay away. This should make for exciting racing, giving every horse it’s chance.

The headline races for a pretty average Saturday at Sandown-Hillside are the $90,000 Ladbrokes Bet Better Handicap (Race 4) and the $80,000 Ladbrokes Cash In Handicap (Race 8). All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 2YO Fillies Handicap 1300m

Small field to open the card in what looks an unattractive 2 year old affair. With little confidence i’m putting Cat Woman on top. She raced on the lakeside course last week behind a few handy types and gets the senior rider on board today. The handicaps are of much higher quality than the maidens and Sadler backs her up. Montoya’s Secret probably deserves favouritism after hitting the front and beating all bar the well tried Sebring Dream at Flemington. Probably hasn’t shown enough the justify the sub $3 quote on offer. Kenedna led all the way at Geelong over 1200 two weeks ago and has plenty of upside. Bay Harmony and Inspired Estelle next.

One for exotics: Bay Harmony ($15)

Race prediction: 4-2-1-3

Verdict: Saving my money for later races. No bets.

Race 2 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1500m

Yellen resumed with a solid effort from the rear of the field at Cranbourne and should be peaking here second up. Looks perfectly suited with the good track and $8 looks a nice bet each way if the back markers get their chance. Holy Cow ran a huge race in Adelaide two weeks ago coming from the tail. She does look the one to beat but I’m not sure how I feel about the drop in distance. Ma Jones is looking for her fourth win this prep in only 6 starts. She’s never run in this class but is well weighted to figure in the finish. Niminypiminy is testing my patience but isn’t without claims on the quick backup. This is about as far as she wants. Testability has no weight and can run well.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 3-2-4-5

Verdict: Holy Cow the one to beat, Yellen the value. Yellen E.W @8.00:2.60

Race 3 3YO Open Handicap 1600m

Going for another with value here in War Legend. His last effort over 1600 was a narrow victory in an average race at Pakenham. Moroney then sent him to the Allister Clark Stakes where he wasn’t disgraced behind superior horses and he followed it up with a 1.2L 3rd behind Howard Be Thy Name; thats good form! Month between runs the query but does look suited back in distance. Divine Mr Artie cost me the quaddie last week after being out-bobbed on the line. Theres no doubt he’s flying at the moment but he’s never run at the mile before and is on the quick backup. $3 though? Atlantic City looks ready to run a bold race now fourth in after a spell. The track pattern was against last time and he’s drawn to get all the favours here. Lake Jackson was a bit stiff last time behind Rezak and i think he can turn the tables here.

One for exotics: Lake Jackson ($10)

Race prediction: 4-2-7-11

Verdict: Hoping War Legend is ready to go after a month off. War Legend E.W @7.50:2.50

Race 4 Open Handicap 1800m

Impossible to tip against the flying Turnitaround here. Should be 4 from 4 this prep and isn’t hindered by the drop in 200 metres. Ben Thompson gets a handy 3 kilo claim and he looks primed to chalk up 4 in a row. Sysmo looks the biggest danger. The rising 7 year old got better with racing and further distance last preparation and his final 400 metres behind Petrology last start looked encouraging. Longeron may not have handled the soft track last week. He does his best racing around this distance range and is known to throw in the odd shocker. Sandhill Chief will go straight to the front and should give you a sight for your money at $17. Don’t think the Casterton Cup form will measure up though.

One for exotics: Sandhill Chief ($17)

Race prediction: 1-2-4-7

Verdict: Turnitaround should be winning again. Turnitaround W@2.90

Race 5 Benchmark 78 1000m

Putting San Amaro on top here. He’s run against much better quality in the past and although he might want it a bit further, he’s drawn well in 5 and his trials have indicated he’s ready to put in a bold performance first up. Secret Blend will certainly have admirers. 2 of his 3 career wins have come over the 1000m dash but he has drawn very wide and will have to do it tough. Hoping Magnagem shows her best after putting in a below average performance last month. Has a good record over 1000m and does appreciate a good track. Stingray was once a highly regarded galloper. A few disappointing runs later and he’s huge odds in a fairly average Benchmark 78. Look for him to be running on. Kievann is more than capable of pulling out a run fresh. Gold Heist is flying!

One for exotics: San Amaro ($12)

Race prediction: 10-8-16-5

Verdict: Chances galore. No bets.

Race 6 Benchmark 84 1600m

I was quite impressed with Schersozo’s effort first up after he absolutely flew in the last 100 metres. Looks well suited at the mile and if he’s progressed at all he should go very close to winning again. Second up effort the big query. Although he has a stack of weight, Royal Rapture hasn’t run in 84 class for a while now. His effort two weeks ago was promising and after the 3kg claim he looks to play a major part in this race. Nozomi looks to have come back in good order this preparation and is well suited up in distance. Wasn’t disgraced last start but its clear he wants further. The lightly raced Leonforte is another who looks suited over this distance. The form from his first up second looks good and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him winning up in grade. Aurum Spirit pulled off some slick sectionals behind Mihany last start. This is tougher.
Update: Putting Master Reset in the quaddie after the scratching of the favourite. Been average this prep but his best is good enough.

One for exotics: Royal Rapture ($11)

Race prediction: 6-3-1-13

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 6, 8, 13, 4

Verdict: If Schersozo had more reliable second up form I’d be all over him. No bets.

Race 7 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1300m

A Lotta Love had absolutely no luck at Caulfield two back and put in a solid effort at Group level last start in Adelaide. She has a terrific overall strike rate and looks the one to beat here. Enquare has had a minor form slump since performing admirably in much tougher races earlier in her preparation. I think she’ll appreciate the drop back in distance and the drop to mares grade. Certainly isn’t hopeless at $12. Forgeress is the weight horse here with just 52 on her back. She does look better suited with the step up in distance off her 6th in a Group 3 race. Suspect there isn’t that much between her and the top pick asides from the odds. Exclusive Lass is another must for exotics. If you rule a line through her Manihi failure she has put in 3 very good runs this preparation. She has drawn very wide though. Danestroem is better than her first up effort and i’m willing to forgive.
Update: Khutulun goes in the quaddie after Liten Prinsessa’s scratching.

One for exotics: Enquare ($11)

Race prediction: 5-2-8-3

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11, 6

Verdict: Don’t usually like betting in these mares races. No bets.

Race 8 3YO Open Handicap 1300m

Going for class again here by putting Sooboog on top. He’s impossible to catch as a punter but his 5.7L 10th last start was better than it looks on paper. He must be going alright for Weir to line him up in a strong Group 1. Odyssey Moon finds it pretty hard to win but is rarely far away. His effort from the back in the Straight Six was admirable but it was a rather weak edition of the race. Up in the weights here. Jalan Jalan finished strongly in the Euclase and looks to appreciate the step up to 1300 metres. Hard to see any value about the current $4 on offer. Nat’s the Boss overcame a wide barrier to salute at nice odds last start. Step up in distance looks ideal and he has no weight on his back. This is a different class of race though. Have to respect Dwayne Dunn’s decision to pilot the lightly raced Battlecamp here.

One for exotics: Nat’s The Boss ($19)

Race prediction: 2-1-3-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11

Verdict: This race is by no means a Group 1; Sooboog looks the goods. Sooboog W@5.00.

Race 9 Benchmark 84 1300m

Think the favourites have a stranglehold on this one. Duke of Brunswick was clearly the best of the on pacers first up at Morphettville. He had a tough run and stuck on very well; looks fitter second up. The query for him is he might have to do it tough again from the wide barrier. Belesron is 1 from 1 at the track and gets Oliver on board today. He ran well first up and has a great second up record. Note that Spreadeagled came out of that race a solid winner last week. Ruettiger gets the blinkers back on today and finished well from the back (was entitled to) in the same race as Duke of Brunswick. Also drawn wide but it shouldn’t bother him. Not sure he’s as good as the top two but a live winning chance. Mr Backchat ran quite well last month beating home the flying The New Boy. Drawn wide but isn’t without a chance. Coram mixes his form whilst Raposo and Magnus Lad the blowout chances.

One for exotics: Mr Backchat ($13)

Race prediction: 5-6-12-2

Quaddie selections: 5, 6

Verdict: Duke of Brunswick to bounce back. Duke of Brunswick W@3.80

Summary

Yellen E.W@8.00:2.40
War Legend E.W @7.50:2.50
Turnitaround W@2.90
Sooboog W@5.00
Duke of Brunswick W@3.80

Quaddie numbers $30 for 10%
R6: 1, 3, 6, 8, 13
R7: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 11
R8: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11
R9: 5, 6