Caulfield // August 27th

The track is currently rated a Soft 5. With clear weather between now (Thursday) and Saturday we should be running in the Good range. Huge day at Caulfield with the first group 1 of the season.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the $150,000 Resimax Stakes (Race 5), the $150,000 McNeil Stakes (Race 6), the $500,000 Memsie Stakes (Race 7) and the $150,000 Cockram Stakes (Race 9).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO Fillies  Benchmark 78 1400m

Leotie looks a smart filly. Made the jump from maiden grade last start and seems as though 1400 will suit. Perfectly Safe is a winning chance but does look under the current odds available. Might get an easy lead and be hard to run down. Sebrikka does her best when her runs are well spaced. Come into this off a 7 week break and rates highly. Think her latest effort wasn’t as strong as the top pick. Hot Dipped didn’t do enough first up whereas Smart As You Think might need the run first up over 1400.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($10)

Race prediction: 3-4-2-1

Verdict: Leotie clearly the one to beat, even money looks a bit short.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1400m

Jungle Edge would be top pick had he not run yesterday. Damien Oliver gave Prince of Brooklyn a peach of a ride last start settling him much closer to the speed from the wide barrier. Most of these horses are resuming whilst he has race fitness. Should be very hard to hold out on the weight minimum. Tarquin looks a big threat first up with just 52.5 kilos. Wary this may be just a tune up . He’s Our Rokkii found his best form on the rain affected tracks last prep over further. He should be doing his best work late. Maurus creates plenty of interest, place looks best?

One for exotics: Maurus ($17)

Race prediction: 9-6-4-1

Verdict: Prince of Brooklyn to go back to back. Prince of Brooklyn W@2.70

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1400m

My Sister Lil was a bit stiff last start. Kaniana has come out of that race a winner but others have also flopped. 4:0-0-0 at the track and 8:0-2-0 at the distance are big queries but has to be included on her last two. Majestic Lass stormed home last start behind two that held their ground in city class last week. Will be better on the firmer track and up in distance. Takeover looks the best roughie at 81$. Keeps getting sent out at huge odds and is rarely far away. Wide barrier hurts but could run into a place. Gabella will be one to watch over further this spring. Antelucan is more than capable, will be watching her first up though.

One for exotics: Takeover ($81)

Race prediction: 5-11-15-2

Verdict: Will be keeping a keen eye on a few of these mares for later in spring, not keen to bet though.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1200m

Spirit or Lager looks over the odds at 26$. He has a good record second up and won well on the synthetic first up. His form around Duke of Brunswick and Fast Cash puts him right in this. Badajoz has drawn in and gets a nice weight swing on Camdus for a half length margin last start. Today looks to be his best chance for a win. Our Harmony is well placed after the 3kg claim. Has a great record at 1200. Heza Ripper should get an easy lead from barrier 1. Prefer him on wetter though. Will be risking Camdus from the wide barrier, two solid efforts at 1200 this prep though. Eager to see the return of Bon Aurum. He looked a pretty talented 3 year old late last year. The Justice League first up for Weir gets the ultimate gear change. Hard to assess.

One for exotics: Spirit or Lager ($26)

Race prediction: 5-12-9-7

Verdict: Very open race, will have something very small on Spirit or Lager. Spirit or Lager E.W@26:8.00.

Race 5 4YO+ Resimax Stakes (G3) 1100m

Miss Promiscuity is one of my personal favourites and she flies fresh. If its a slow tempo and she settles close to the speed she might be hard to reel in. She does her best work at Caulfield and over the short trips. Under The Louvre is a freak and can pull of some slick sectionals. I think he’s a lay at his current odds of 2.80 over this distance. He’ll need the tempo on and will most likely get right back from the barrier. Shiraz gets the blinkers on today and didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up. He’s got a great record second up, over this distance range and on the firmer surface. Big watch. We’ve Got This is a good fresh horse, not overly convinced he’s up to this class though. Santa Ana Lane won here fresh last prep and is my pick of the new 4 year olds. Dan Zephyr and Trevinder aren’t hopeless at big odds.

One for exotics: Shiraz ($10)

Race prediction: 13-1-2-9

Verdict: Another pretty open race. No bets.

Race 6 3YO McNeil Stakes (G3) 1200m

Awake in Grinzing only won a Sandown Lakeside maiden on debut but he came from last on the heavy track to win in impressive fashion. Defcon came from the tail over this distance to easily beat Prized Icon before a forgive run in the Slipper. Good enough if right first up. It’s hard to assess who is the horse to take out of the Vain Stakes. Highland Beat was resuming and finished well, should appreciate the extra 100 metres. Revolving Door was also resuming and was wide throughout, he stuck on well. Wazzenme is another who will run well over 1200 and gets the blinkers on today. Hardham took the rails run and looked to have his chance last start, is a genuine winning hope but can’t have him as favourite. Blue Tycoon is another big watch first up. Whilst Seaburge has to go in too off some very nice trials.

One for exotics: Awake in Grinzing ($13)

Race prediction: 10-1-3-6

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14

Verdict: Hard to have a confident bet here. Going very wide in the quaddie. No bets.

Race 7 3YO+ Memsie Stakes (G1) 1400m

Black Heart Bart does look the one to beat here. He thrives at this distance range and has drawn to get a nice run. The only query is he’s never raced first up at 1400 before. Oliver back on Lord Of The Sky is a big tick. Still not convinced he’s a 1400 metre horse though. They ran quick early and he was entitled to drop out last start but stuck on okay. Mahuta can be forgiven as he was found lame last start, would prefer him around the 10$ quote though. Not convinced Palentino loves Caulfield but the distance rise gives him claims. McEvoy is trying plenty of gear changes with Alpine Eagle today. He’s too good to ignore despite his fresh failure in May. All three of Hayes horses have minor claims.

One for exotics: Lord of the Sky ($14)

Race prediction: 2-3-8-11

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 8, 11

Verdict: Backing Black Heart Bart for the win. Black Heart Bart W@3.10

Race 8 Heatherlie Stakes (Listed) 1700m

Magnapal won this race last year. He closed very well last start and was a touch unlucky not to finish closer. Should relish every bit of 1700 metres and is the one to beat. Tom Melbourne is twice a winner first up. He was super impressive his first two runs last prep before going amiss in the Mornington Cup. Good hope. Provocative is the unknown factor. She was huge in the Queensland Oaks, I’m not overly convinced how strong that race was and she’s never won in this class over this distance before. Second Bullet can run a race here with 54 on his back. Has beaten Killarney Kid over 2000. Longeron is 7 weeks between runs. I think he might just need this one but he has a fantastic record here.

One for exotics: Second Bullet ($10)

Race prediction: 4-3-11-7

Quaddie selections: 3, 4, 7, 14

Verdict: Happy to have a bet on Magnapal after his effort in the PB Lawrence. Magnapal W@7.50

Race 9 4YO+ Mares Cockram Stakes (G3) 1200m

Choose is twice a winner fresh and this is her best distance. Crossed the line with Azkadellia over 1200 last preparation. Ocean Embers looks ready for this class now, she’s going to need a lot of luck from the barrier but is absolutely flying this prep. Telopea is as genuine as they come, she looked good in her win before the break. Last go at 1200 she came from last to nab second. Kayjay’s Joy was massive first up last preparation. She’s drawn wide and is another who will need luck but can’t be ignored. Mossin Around lost momentum at a key stage first up, hard to know if she would’ve challenged the winner but she definitely would’ve been a lot closer. Suspect there isn’t much between Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court. The latter ticks plenty of boxes whilst the former is very consistent.

One for exotics: Choose ($14)

Race prediction: 5, 13, 9, 8

Quaddie selections: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13

Verdict: Choose looks a value hope at big odds in a very open race. No bets.

Rosehill // 27th August

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Photo: Star Turn wins the 2016 San Domenico Stakes last weekend.

Great card today for the featured Run To The Rose at Rosehill. Star Turn should start favourite after knocking down the door of the San Domenico stakes last weekend.

The track looks to be rated a heavy one with a bit of mid week rain.

R1 #theraces (bm72) 2000m

Birds Of Tokyo bolted in by 6.3L last start, beating Firebird Flyer. First start at the distance which could be an issue and recent trial wasn’t convincing. Firebird Flyer finished quite a distance back behind Birds Of Tokyo two starts back, however she gets a nice weight turn around here. An honest horse who loves a wet track. Northern Journey has a great heavy track record. Scored a great win last time out and has previously won at the distance. My Guiliano beat Firebird Flyer in his maiden win, and probably didn’t enjoy the short distance prior to that. Big query here is the heavy track, yet to place on heavy but has run well on soft in the past. One that could cause an upset is Erika. Was priced well last start in the Birds Of Tokyo race but didn’t fire. Forgive that run; she usually loves a wet track!

One For Exotics: Erika

Prediction: 2-3-1-5

Verdict: Firebird Flyer W @$3.80

R2 Strassmeir (bm82) 1500m

Extensible cruised home to victory for us two weeks ago, winning by 1.8L over Labdien. Loses half a kilo here and looks a good thing! Only query is the heavy track, but has shown ability on soft. Pirate Ben is a horse that has good ability. Was very dominant towards the back end of last prep, however yet to find any form in this one with big weights. Loses 5.5kg here and will be a key challenger. Shards is a horse with great ability! Has been contesting some big races this year with no real luck. Drops back to a bm82, however the downside of that is the top weight. Weight may make it too tough. Antonio Guiseppe had his first run on a heavy track last time out and won by 1.3L. Loses 5kg on that here which will put him into the race. Rhodin Drive a sneaky chance at long odds.

One For Exotics: Pirate Ben

Prediction: 3-5-1-8

Verdict: Never jump off a good thing! Extensible W @ $2.50

R3 St Mary’s Rsl (bm70) 1400m

Evacuation looks a colt with exceptional potential. Bolted home in first competitive start, and then did the same in two trials (the latter on a heavy track). Key contender for this. Cocoexcel won nicely on a heavy track at Kembla last time out. Remains at that weight here and is another with great potential. Keep handy. Savvan ran second to Cocoexcel last time out, and turns around 2kg on that run here. Could cause a shock here at some very nice odds. Swear won on debut at Hawkesbury paying a juicy $12. Only 1 run on a wet track where finished 6th of 9 behind Cocoexcel at trial. Rise in weight won’t help but don’t dismiss. Sezanne found herself on a heavy track and won her maiden last time out! Took a bit to get going but maybe has turned a corner now?

One For Exotics: Savvan

Prediction: 4-8-10-2

Verdict: Evacuation looks a star but this race is full of young horses with great potential. Might stay out of this.

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1100m

Alliterate was disappointing last start but never usually fires first up. Has been a contender in some big races of late and loses some weight here which will be handy. A good chance at big odds. Hanwritten actually beat Ball Of Muscle on debut! A good young horse with some serious potential. Unproven on heavy ground, though. Beside You has won three on the trot and was particularly impressive in the most recent. Two wins have been on soft track and should be right in this. Farah finished just behind Beside You last time out. Loses a bit of weight and plenty of upside. Keep handy! Leami Astray tried to do too much last start, attempting to lead the whole way. Could respond here but untried on a heavy track. Perizada and Moss My Name among the wider chances.

One For Exotics: Alliterate

Prediction: 11-3-12-10

Verdict: Rate Alliterate highly here at nice odds. Alliterate EW @ $13.00/$4.00

R5 On Point Locating (bm80) 1100m

Open race this! Shahrazad scored well first up and runs here 2kg lighter. Wasn’t too far back last start but that was on a dry track. Is a good horse who can give this a shake. Rose Of Man ran fairly well last start, considering she was a ranked outsider. Never really performed well on a heavy track, however the drop in class will help her here. Allez Chival is consistent as ever. Last three runs have been on a heavy track however can’t seem to find that breakthrough this prep. Drawn well in barrier 1 which should help. Alucinari has form lines around Heatherly and Palazzo Publicco. A talented mare who, if can handle the big weight, can contest this. Zoumagic has been great this prep, finishing in the quinella every start. She likes it wet, but on her only heavy start didn’t fire. Keep handy. Momma’s Snitzel the next best, however her recent trial is a bit of a worry…

One For Exotics: Allez Chival

Prediction: 7-9-4-2

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

R6 Racing Mates (bm85) 1200m

I’m a big fan of Sir Bacchus. He’s a very smart horse who has some serious finishing ability. Never lost at the track or at the distance and will be hard to stop here. Untried on a heavy track the only query. Snoopy was held up badly last time out. Barrier 3 will help him get out nicely and just sit off the leading few. He looks a great horse who should be right in this. Handfast is a good horse who has won well first up in the past. Was on fire last prep and is first up here. Hasn’t performed well on a heavy track in the past but faces lesser competition than last time out. His Majesty dashed home late last outing to score an impressive victory! Drop in grade but big rise in weight which might make this too tough. Encostanati doesn’t mind a heavy track and loses a couple of kilo’s here. One for wider exotics. Kellyville Flyer also enters the wider chances after drawing an inside barrier!

One For Exotics: Encostanati

Prediction: 4-9-6-5

Verdict: Lots of winning chances so staying out.

Quaddie Numbers: 4 5 6 7 9

R7 Mta Run To The Rose 1200m

Feature race of the day and have a look at the quality of some of these! Mediterranean took a bit to get going last time out but flew home late to narrowly miss. Loves a heavy track and think he is going to be a star. Star Turn ran a beautiful race last time in the San Domenico stakes. Got bucketloads of potential and loves a soft track. Untested on heavy? Impending won impressively on debut, however didn’t fire as a short favourite after that. Obviously has potential but yet to see any competitive run on a wet track. Keep handy. El Divino is undefeated from 2 starts (both on wet). Half brother to Winx and is a key hope who looks to be in for a massive prep. One at long odds that could cause a boil-over is Telperion. Closed very well in the Slipper (best final 400m), and then battled well for 2nd behind Yankee Rose after that.

One For Exotics: Telperion

Prediction: 9-7-4-3

Verdict: Really like Mediterranean and very tempted by the odds of Telperion. Mediterranean W @ $5.50 & Telperion EW @ $16.00/$4.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 7 9 10

R8 Premier’s Cup 1900m

Singing made his first Australian start last time out and narrowly missed on the post after sitting nicely in the box seat. That was his first run under 2000m and will be fitter for that. Encouraging run on the heavy track, too. Allergic put in a really tough run last time to score a great victory. Gets minor weight relief and has the quality, the only query is no prior heavy form. Loophole finished 1.5L behind Allergic last outing, and does have some good wet track form. Turns around 1.5kg on Allergic here which will bring him right into this race. Ruling Dynasty gets back out to a reasonable distance after moving back to 1400m last time out. Ran well first up and this isn’t beyond him. Include Magic Hurricane for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Loophole

Prediction: 6-3-7-4

Verdict: A couple of winning chances but happy to have a bet on Loophole. Loophole W @ $8.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 6 7

R9 Tab Rewards (bm78) 1350m

Chetwood loved being first up last time out. He looks to be a very promising horse with a bright future. Drawn inside and won on heavy previously, all big ticks. Cannyescent was only narrowly defeated by Chetwood last start. Earns a 1kg weight advantage on him here and will have every chance. Labdien was great last time out, although beaten 1.8L by Extensible. Drops back in grade and has every chance. We’re Sure won very nicely last time out. Doesn’t mind this track and has some good wet track form. Will go close. Conarchie fell a few lengths short to We’re Sure here but turns around a few kilo’s too. Great heavy track form and a very real chance. Earlier this year Orcym Sam wasn’t far off of Danish Twist, and being first up here could be an inclusion for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Orcym Sam

Prediction: 2-9-11-3

Verdict: Fairly open race and will sit this one out.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 7 9 11

 

Randwick // 20th August

winx

Photo: Hugh Bowman salutes on champion mare Winx

This Saturday bring NSW Racing back to Randwick, for the running of the Warwick Stakes (1400m) as the feature race of the day. Champion mare Winx returns for what should be a cracking day. 

Current weather forecasts for Saturday in Sydney show there to be no rain Thursday, Friday or Saturday. The current rating for the track is soft and this should remain the same for raceday, if not improve.

R1 Moraitis Communications (bm83) 1400m

Pindan Pearl has scored on 2 out of 4 occasions this prep. Won well two starts back with a big weight and runs 2.5kg lighter than that here. Late entry in this race and loves a soft track. Should be right up there. Super Tycoon is flying at the moment and he’s going for four in a row. Was very dominant in a huge win last start, winning by 3.8L, however he’s up 4kg here. I think he may struggle under the big weight, but he’ll be gunning to prove me wrong. Conarchie had a tough run on a heavy track last time out, but stuck on well to finish third in a fairly strong field. Has finished 1L second to Super Tycoon in the past, and turns around 4.5kg on that run here. Was a few start ago now, however he has shown he can match it with them here. Torgersen resumes after a four month spell. Hasn’t shown much at trials but never usually does. He’s running with a big weight here which won’t help but he wouldn’t shock in this grade. Shadow Lord and Pera Pera the best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Shadow Lord

Race Prediction: 6-3-7-1

Verdict: Relatively open race here but think Pindan Pearl is a great chance at current odds. Pindan Pearl W @ $4.60

R2 The Randwick Mayor’s Cup-bm72 2400m

Lie Direct blitzed the field on the bogged heavy track last time out. Has finished in the trifecta in his last five starts and looks to be a very consistent horse. Up 3.5kg which looks to be an issue, however the apprentice claim will help. Won’t be a heavy track again, which may bring others into the race. Braces finished second to him last time out, and has a slight weight advantage going in here. A very consistent gelding who will be out for revenge here. Major Major was in the same race as the top 2 last start, and was disappointing as the favourite. I think the form around that race is slightly flawed, as the track was in awful condition. Richard Of Yorke ran well for an outsider at Canterbury Park last start finishing third, however I’m not too sure why he’s so short. The rise in distance looks ideal but of the two starts in Australia, he’s yet to show any real dominance. Will enjoy this distance but may need this run too. Elusive Runner best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Braces

Race Prediction: 1-2-3-5

Verdict: Braces looks an appealing bet, meeting Lie Direct 4.5kg better than last start! Braces EW @ $8.50/$2.45

R3 Tab Highway Plate (c3) 1600m

Such an open race! Akiko Gold has been running well in her last three starts, running a close second at Rosehill last start. The mile distance looks to suit and should be hard to beat. Distinctive Look won well last start, and drops 1.5kg here. Second time in town and a soft track will help. Grand Rouge was only just behind Akiko Gold last start and looks to be improving with the increase in distance. Hooge won well last start and has been running well of late. First start in the city and could run a sneaky race at the bottom weight. A soft track will help her. Despite being the top weight, New Divide has the quality to cause an upset. Thunder Road has also shown he can match it with the major players in this race. Would be a big effort, though.

One For Exotics: Hooge

Race Prediction: 13-7-8-18

Verdict: Way too open, no bets.

R4 Primo Smallgoods Up And Coming 1300m

Divine Prophet was brilliant in the Champagne last start, finishing third to Prized Icon. He gets a 6kg weight advantage here which will put him right in this race. One of the best hopes if the track can stay relatively dry. Derryn bolted home to score his first victory at Caulfield last start. His last 200m was the fastest of the day, and has bucketloads of potential. Extra distance looks ideal. Thronum just held on last time out to deny Mediterranean victory on the line. Seems as though he thrives on a fairly wet track and will need that to win here. Pound Sterling is a good each way chance after winning first up at Warwick Farm last start. Drops 2.5kg and should be competitive. Taj Mahal the next best after winning his maiden in April. Should be better for the freshen up too.

One For Exotics: Pound Sterling

Race Prediction: 3-4-2-7

Verdict: Lots of winning chances here and will hold my money for some other races.

R5 Alpha Flight Silver Shadow 1200m

Omei Sword resumes here after three barrier trials. Was never ridden to win in those but in her second trial she looked the goods. Ran a close second behind Calliope earlier this year and gets a nice weight swing on her here. Look for her late. Thyme For Roses will look to claim the lead from a wide barrier and the pace should be on. Running very well in recent trials and has some serious talent. Calliope is a resuming Golden Slipper runner who will be looking to show what she’s capable of here. Manaya won very commandingly on debut at Scone, and prior to that won 2 trials by over 7 lengths both times. Trialled well here and could threaten. Quick Feet the next best of the lot.

One For Exotics: Thyme For Roses

Race Prediction: 5-3-1-4

Verdict: Should be hotly contested by a few but I think Thyme For Roses is a good each way bet. EW @ $12/$3.20

R6 Bob Ingham Show County Qlty 1200m

Le Romain had an outstanding run of races last prep, and usually enjoys it first up. Taught them all a lesson in the Randwick Guineas and think he might do the same here. Loves the distance and the track, will be hard to beat. Vashka scored two nice wins at Rosehill and Caulfield last prep before going back to spell. Had three trials now and performed very well in all three. Usually runs well first up and is a definite danger. Boss Lane had a decent run of races last prep. Not usually a good first up runner but is a talented horse who has proven form at this track. Think you have to include both Tycoon Tara and Mount Nebo in the chances, with the Missile form they both have. Decision Time for wider exotics with the low weight.

One For Exotics: Decision Time

Race Prediction: 5-3-6-8

Verdict: Like the odds given for Le Romain and think he’s too good first up, at the distance, and at the track. Le Romain W @ $4.60

Quaddie Numbers: 3 5 6

R7 Warwick Stakes 1400m

The superstar is back! Winx makes her return here after a four month spell. We all know how good she is, and what a special horse Waller has on his hands. She will be right up there again and should really blitz this field! Lucia Valentina bolted home in the Queen Elizabeth last start! Was a huge win and back now after four months off. Two trials with no real eye-catching performance, but did finish off well in latest. If any of them are going to beat Winx, Lucia Valentina has the best chance, jumping with the same weight! Rebel Dane the next best after run in the missile. Throw Hartnell in for fourth.

One For Exotics: Lucia Valentina

Race Prediction: 6-7-4-2

Verdict: Well Winx should be winning. Too short for mine! No bets.

Quaddie Numbers: 6 (include 7 if you think Winx can be beaten)

R8 Forum Group Toy Show Qlty 1300m

Dixie Blossoms was our top pick last week, only to be scratched in the lead up. Bucketloads of potential for this mare after a very promising beginning to her career. Will be exciting to watch! Elle Lou ran very well last start, beating home last weekend winner Extensible by a length. Drops 6kg on last start which will definitely help! Pioneering is shooting for four in a row after three very strong wins. Has the advantage in terms of fitness and drops 4.5kg here! Knit’n’Purl is having a great campaign so far. Gets minor weight relief after winning well on a heavy track here last time out. A definite each way chance. Pearls is a good chance at longer odds, dropping some weight here. Heavens Above is a good horse but think that the rise in weight will prove too much.

One For Exotics: Knit’n’Purl

Race Prediction: 6-4-5-8

Verdict: Very open race. Dixie Blossoms looks the goods but a few threats from others. Willing to have a go on her though. Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.40

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 5 6 8

R9 Sydney Markets Foundation-bm85 1000m

Haptic hasn’t run for 10 months where he came 3rd in the Blue Sapphire. Two recent trials have been positive and first up, track, and distance record is good. Is the one to beat from barrier six. Southern Legend is unbeaten in three starts for this stable and had a lengthy break now. Will be fresh and ready to fire. Barrier 13 won’t help here. Think its a race between those two. Shahrazad was disappointing as short fave last time out. Loses a kilo here and willing to forgive last run. With a bit of luck she can get them. Rose Of Man looks a small chance with such a low weight, and has been competitive in the past.

One For Exotics: Shahrazad

Race Prediction: 3-2-9-11

Verdict: Probably a race between Haptic and Southern Legend. Too tough to split them.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 9 11

 

 

 

Moonee Valley // August 20th

Just the one winner from 4 bets last week, it was a good one though getting backed from $4.00 into 2.30 and never looking in doubt. There looks to be a few showers between Wednesday and Saturday so it’s more than likely that we’ll be racing on a Soft track. It’s very important to monitor the track bias at the Valley.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $120,000 Mckenzie Stakes (Race 5) and the $120,000 Carlyon Stakes (Race 8). All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 96 2500m

There isn’t a whole lot between the top 3 in this one. Black Tomahawk looks a good thing to turn the 0.1L margin on Au Revoir. He took an eternity to get going down the straight and although the Valley isn’t ideal, the services of Craig Williams and the low weight should get him home here. Araldo Junior is impossible to catch but three runs back he absolutely brained them from the front over this distance. Did look to have every chance last start. Try Four took out a maiden hurdle last start and beat home recent city performer Oncidium Ruler prior. He’s in this. Au Revoir and Refectory for wider exotics.

One for exotics: Refectory ($13)

Race prediction: 3-2-4-1

Verdict: Black Tomahawk for the win. Black Tomahawk W@3.00

Race 2 Benchmark 78 1600m

Liked the way Archean hit the line first up. He’s won second up before and should be in the finish here. Laqha didn’t show her best first up in a race the suited the swoopers. She has a liking to the Moonee Valley circuit and has a terrific record at the mile. Dont count her out. Caprese finished alongside of Archean last time. He has a very good record here but think Archean has more upside. Grand Dreamer is another who ran well first up. Has a good overall record at the mile and should be running on. Miss Denni is another horse second up with a chance. Beat subsequent winner Kaniana home last time, usually races a bit flat second up though.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-2-9

Verdict: Archean is worth a bet at the odds. Archean W@6.00

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Benchmark 90 1200m

I’m a big fan of French Emotion. She resumes here and bolted in over this distance fresh last preparation. This looks to be her pet trip but she does look short enough in a class she’s never won before (90 grade). Refuse to Lose lead all the way last time and has a great record at 1200. She has measured up in town before. Foreign Affair comes out of the same race as Refuse to Lose and she didn’t enjoy the best run in transit last time. She’s always around the mark. Rockolicious closed well first up. She’s never won second up and might want further now. Blinkers first time and form on wet are big ticks. Vibrant Rouge can’t seem to return to the winners circle but she’s knocking on the door. A repeat of her effort last time will see her in the finish. Needs it dry. Unsure about Catch a Fire as all of her form is 3YO restricted.

One for exotics: Refuse to Lose ($15)

Race prediction: 2-6-9-3

Verdict: Looking for one to beat French Emotion but can’t find it. French Emotion W@3.20

Race 4 3YO Fillies Plate 1200m

Really tough race. Zamzam is a big watch from the Hayes and Dabernig yard. She has two wins around this circuit and does her best racing over 1200. Sweet Sherry’s one win came first up down the Flemington straight on debut. She wasn’t disgraced in 4 very tough races since including the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond. Ariaz looked smart on debut beating Motown Lil easily (Racing here). She then went to the Breeders stakes and found one better. Immediately spelled. Respecting Piccadillies on debut, whilst Moonlover is my pick of the maiden brigade.

One for exotics: Moonlover ($11)

Race prediction: 1-2-4-12

Verdict: No bets.

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Mckenzie Stakes 1200m

Going with Dam Ready here. He resumes gelded and should take great benefit already having a win around this course. Has drawn off the track though. It was hard to miss Ken’s Dream on debut at Echuca. This is a big step up but he could be something special. Verstappen also walked in on debut but on the synthetic track. Oli takes the ride. China Dream gets the blinkers on first time. He was only 2 lengths off Flying Artie at start number 2. Could be the blowout. Rampage and Throssell go in next.

One for exotics: China Dream ($21)

Race prediction: 3-8-7-4

Verdict: No bets.

Race 6 Open Handicap 2040m

Pin Your Hopes has a nice weight swing and looks to be well suited back on the rain affected track. There is a bit of a question mark over his ability to run out a strong 2000 but i’m willing to give him another go. Tooleybuc Kid looks well suited here second up. Flew home from last first up to just fall short of the flying Royal Rapture and steps up another 300 metres in distance. Only issue is he took his time to get going on that occasion and not so sure the tight Valley circuit is ideal. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record at 2000 metres. He seems to perform a bit better on top of the ground and his record at the track (2:0-0-0) is worrying. Yulong Baby will be hard to hold out with just 52.5. Bold Sniper can bounce back down in the weights. Has beaten Master of Arts this prep. Golden Mane is always thereabouts in these sorts of races. He isn’t ideally suited on the weight scale though. Prima could be the blowout. He lead all the way last start and wasn’t far away from the likes of Yulong Baby and Golden Mane back in February.

One for exotics: Tooleybuc Kid ($11)

Race prediction: 3-4-1-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 4, 8

Verdict: Giving Pin Your Hopes another chance. Pin Your Hopes W@7.00

Race 7 Open Handicap 1500m

There’s no doubting Pilote D’essai was huge first up and he looks a group performer this spring. He’s drawn the widest barrier here which will be no easy task and $2 looks a bit of a risk. Royal Rapture is in top form and there’s no reason he can’t win again. This race does look tougher than his effort last start but he is flying, just needs some cover from the barrier. Nevis is a handy frontrunner on his day and could take some catching around this track if he gets an easy lead. Onpicalo is another likely frontrunner who loves the jar out of the track. He’s drawn well and bolted in here three back. Most of these runners are stayers that will likely need the run but Pemberley has proven he can handle the short distances. He bolted in first up last prep over a rather weak field but the first up and distance form are big ticks.

One for exotics: Nevis ($11)

Race prediction: 9-3-2-5

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 5, 9, 12

Verdict: Pilote D’essai should be winning but not excited by the barrier. No bets.

Race 8 4YO+ Carlyon Stakes 1000m

Heatherly is the one to beat here. Her win in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield when leading all the way was unbelievable. She beat some good horses on that occasion and followed it up with a 0.8L 3rd to Flamberge and Fell Swoop. She’s drawn well to lead, loves the short trip and has won at Moonee Valley twice before. Wet track the only concern. Shiraz looks a huge chance here first up. He’s proven at the top level and is a genuine winner (10 from 20). Drawn to get a soft run and will be in the finish. Wild Rain trialled like a star and performed accordingly first up. The form from that race has been okay and she loves the short going. Going to need some luck from the barrier but has to be included. Beau Rada does all of his best racing at the Valley. Beat Sheidel here last prep. I’m a fan of O’Malley but this looks a bit tough first up. Wary of Williams jumping on Keen Array but he just wasn’t good enough last prep for me. Needs to lift. I’ll also be keeping a keen eye on Diamond Oasis first up for Weir.

One for exotics: Beau Rada ($26)

Race prediction: 5-1-8-10

Quaddie selections: 1, 5, 8, 10

Verdict: Shiraz looks the safe play on the wet track for those interested in betting. No bets

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1200m

This is a seriously tough way to finish the quaddie. Many of these met down the straight two weeks ago and the majority of them will race significantly different around this circuit. Fast Cash has drawn wide here which will make it very difficult. His late sectionals were fantastic first up, he’s a winner second up and likes moonee valley. If anyone can guide him to victory from 18 its Oliver. Shaf was dominant in that race first up. He doesn’t have the best stats on paper but he can’t be ignored. Rough Justice has a good record second up and at the valley. He should take great benefit from the run first up. Magicus is 4th emergency but is a must if he gains a start. Magnus Reign beat home Voodoo Lad two back before not firing a shot last time. He has a good record at Moonee Valley and is generally around the mark at 1200. I have my queries over Jungle Edge but he was pretty impressive last start.

One for exotics: Rough Justice ($13)

Race prediction: 10-6-4-18

Quaddie selections: 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 18

Verdict: No bets.

Caulfield // 13th August

We managed to get all the winners in our preview last week at Flemington, good for those exotics players! From a betting perspective, early markets gave us the edge where we managed 2 out of 5 winners to make a small profit. Lets keep the streak rolling this weekend where there is some high quality horses resuming. Weather looks good between now (Wednesday) and Saturday so we should be racing on a Good 4.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the Group 3 $150,000 KS Environmental Vain Stakes (Race 5), the Group 3 $150,000 Winslow Group Stakes (Race 6) and the Group 2 $200,000 PB Lawrence Stakes (Race 7).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 84 2000m

O’Lonera is absolutely flying at the moment. She won comfortably last time and isn’t hindered by the drop back in distance. Hard to knock Hursley. He gets a nice weight drop off a solid win last time. Has drawn well and should be in the finish. Khutulun saves her best for Caulfield; I think the 3 year old form (now 4 year olds) is a bit stronger that what she’s been racing in. Not sure if Name The Day will measure up here but his form has been very good this prep. Electric Fusion could bob up at odds back on the firmer surface.

One for exotics: Electric Fusion ($34)

Race prediction: 6-4-3-5

Verdict: Pretty tough race with 4 last start winners. O’Lonera should be very hard to beat. No bets.

Race 2 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Savannah Moon ran well last week and is suited with the drop back to the mile. She showed great fight at her start prior beating a subsequent winner and that form looks good enough for this. Choice was well backed first up and finished strongly. Jumping to the mile looks a bit of a query second up but she does do her best racing over this trip. Kaniana didn’t enjoy the best run last week losing momentum at a key stage. She should run out a strong mile. Gets in with no weight. Rustic Melody looks as though she should be competitive here. Kris Lees doesn’t bring them over very often. Throw a blanket over the rest.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-7-1

Verdict: Looks an ugly race. No bets.

Race 3 Benchmark 84 1600m

Pretty keen on Leica Day here. He’s never won second up but loves the track and loves the distance. He was desperately unlucky not to finish closer when blocked for a run at a crucial stage behind a subsequent winner Ulmann. Wide draw suits. Volcanic Ash is edging closer to a win and does his best racing here. Would like to see one more run before I jump on. Caprese is a get back and run on type who makes his own luck. Oliver jumps off and he’s never run at the mile but it looks as if it would suit. Up in class. By The Grace has a stack of weight and wants it wet. Forgive last time? Magic Consol goes in next.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 4-8-9-1

Verdict: Drink beer back Weir. Leica Day W@3.80

Race 4 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1100m

Ocean Embers was huge first up here and came from a long way back against the bias at Morphettville in the lightning stakes. She gets in on the minimum and should appreciate the extra 50 metres. Mossin Around boasts a first up win over Tsarita. Has some classy 3YO form but monitor the betting. Atmospherical was given every possible chance with a dream ride last time. The form from that race has been franked and she has a great second up record. Chiavari is six weeks between runs. She’s flying this prep and looks a winning chance. Wants it wetter though. Cana looks the best roughie for multiples. Impossible to line up the Sydneysiders Glenbawn Dame and Awasita, but their interstate form has been solid.

One for exotics: Cana ($16)

Race prediction: 8-6-1-5

Verdict: Ocean Embers to bounce back. Ocean Embers W@4.00

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Group 3 1100m

Highland Beat looks ready to produce on his return after a nice trial. Never won here but rarely far away. Artie Dee Two won a solid race at the Valley two months ago. He should appreciate the freshen up. Russian Revolution looks to be a promising colt, unproven at this level though and $2.30? Valliano won a handy race here fresh last prep. He’s more than capable of taking this one out. Power Trip isn’t hopeless at big odds, Wazzenme goes in next.

One for exotics: Highland Beat ($10)

Race prediction: 4-6-5-1

Verdict: Wide open race for the new 3 year olds. No bets.

Race 6 3YO Fillies Group 3 1100m

Merriest won impressively over this track and trip on debut before flopping down the straight. Keen to see her around a bend again. Concealer ran a huge race in the blue diamond prelude fresh last prep. Look for her to be storming home late. Hot Dipped looks the best roughie. She’s trialled well and was well backed in a group 2 at Flemington before not running up to expectations. Immediately spelled. Wary of Conscious. She should take great improvement from her one run last prep. Modern Wonder is another who has to be included, does look under the odds at $5.50 though. Sword of Light looks to be just a fresh performer, has to go in on her first up effort though.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($21)

Race prediction: 11-1-5-13

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13

Verdict: Might have a very small each way bet on Hot Dipped in another open race. Hot Dipped E.W@21:6.00

Race 7 3YO+ PB Lawrence Stakes Group 2 1400m

The feature of the day and i’m leaning towards Suavito. She flies first up and has won her last 3 fresh over this track and distance. The firm track is a big tick and her form around Lucky Hussler and Turn Me Loose looks more than good enough for this. Mahuta looks the biggest danger. Weir said he’d need the run first up and he ran well over an unsuitable distance after being wide throughout. He’s unbeaten over 1400 and has drawn to get the run of the race. Miss Rose de Lago does her best racing here. Oliver has chosen her over Suavito and Lord of the Sky, that may be an indication of how she’s going. The Cleaner was just edged out in this race last year. This looks to be a stronger version of the race but i’m keen to see if Gelagotis has got him back to peak condition. Smokin’ Joey looks to have come back in good order. Could be the blow out. Entirely Platinum boasts a 0.1L second fresh to Boban over this trip, more than good enough if right. Lord of the Sky is a freak on his day, the throat operation seems to have worked but i don’t think 1400 is his go. Jameka for wider exotics.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($10)

Race prediction: 12-11-14-2

Quaddie selections: 2, 11, 12, 14

Verdict: Looks a great edition of the PB Lawrence stakes. Suavito to make it 4 on the trot fresh. Suavito W@6.00.

Race 8 4YO+ Regal Roller Stakes 1200m

Voodoo Lad has started favourite at every one of his 13 starts and has never missed the trifecta. He was throwing his head around down the straight at his previous two and i’m keen to see him around a bend again. Fast ’n’ Rocking’s racing pattern requires the right tempo and a bit of luck (as seen by 5 wins from 41 starts). He’s got 60kg here and although he’s clearly the class of the field I can’t see any value at $3. Girl Guide was given absolutely no hope by Williams first up. Hopefully she settles a bit closer from gate one, 11$ was a steal when markets opened. Snoopy resumes a gelding and is unbeaten fresh. Big watch. Nautical won first up off a similar break last time beating home Odyssey Moon. Think she might find these a bit too slick. This looks to be a tune up for Palentino. Back him in a few starts time.

One for exotics: Girl Guide ($11)

Race prediction: 5-1-3-9

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 5

Verdict: Fast ’n’ Rocking wins if the tempos on. No bets.

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1400m

Magicus should’ve finished closer last time behind Marwood. Has drawn wide today so provided he gets cover he should be hard to hold out. Second crack at 1400 and should be fitter for it. Mr Individual was well backed over this track and distance last start and did it easy. Divine Mr Artie came out of that race a winner but he was given no hope with the tempo on the day. Prince of Brooklyn came from a minute back last time in a pretty handy 3YO race. He’s drawn wide again and will most likely be spotting the leaders a fair old margin at the bend. Bon Rocket ran well in this grade fresh over 1100. Looks a good chance at odds back onto the firmer track. Vostok has Group 3 form, just fair first up on heavy.

One for exotics: Bon Rocket ($13)

Race prediction: 5-6-8-3

Quaddie selections: 6, 8

Verdict: A race with few chances, think Magicus will drift and depending on odds I may bet.

Rosehill // 13th August

Back to Rosehill this week which gives us some quality horses preparing for the spring carnival. Capitalist returns after last week’s scratching and will look to recreate his form as a 3YO in the feature $150k San Domenico Stakes.

R1 Fairfield Rsl Club (bm81) 1400m

Although she finished third last start, Extensible was very promising and finished off the race well. The lightly raced mare fought on bravely and is yet to miss the placings in her career. Looks a real treat. Frill Seeking has been finding the line with Extensible of late and will be around the mark here once again. Does lose half a kilo to her here which won’t make it any easier but with a bit of luck could surprise (she has been improving). Tree Of Jesse found things tough at Randwick last start, but then again so would most in those horrid conditions. She is a nice 5YO who has won on a wet track. Look for her to be finishing strongly. Labdien was disappointing first up last time out, carrying a huge weight. Drops 4.5kg’s here which will bring her into the race. 1 from 1 second up. Taltarni not the worst chance at big odds too.

One For Exotics: Taltarni

Prediction: 6-3-4-7

Verdict: Think Extensible is going to be one of the better chances of the day. Extensible W @ $2.90

R2 C. Mcalpine Tribute Highway-c2 1100m

Open race this. No When To Hold Em is a promising 3YO Filly who has been in a good patch of form. Comes up against older rivals here but a convincing run last start on a heavy track shows that she can handle a wet track. Beside You went 2 from 2 when she won by a length at Coffs Harbour last time out. Hasn’t done anything wrong yet and could run a very nice race here. Luxury was disappointing last start but will be fitter for the run. Has shown us what she’s capable of last prep, however the sharp rise in weight won’t help here. Farah was good last time out and nearly pulled off a good win being wide all race. He’s a very consistent horse who will be looking to make the most from barrier 7. Stop The Fight and Vixen Lass all chances at longer odds.

One For Exotics: Stop The Fight

Prediction: 13-12-1-5

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

R3 Dooleys (bm78) 2000m

This is such an open race. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win. Dubaiinstyle won well for us last weekend and ate up the heavy track. First go at 2000m which may well suit. More Than Fabulous has been as consistent as ever and drops to kg’s here which will help. Loves a soft track but drawn wide, and will need to get out fast to have a chance. Firebird Flyer was a fair way off eventual winner last time out but the run was promising on such a heavy track. Is a promising young mare who could give this a real crack. Magical Stance has been running in races much higher in grade than this, and has been running admirably. Placed 2 from 2 at this distance and is one of the better chances. Doukhan will enjoy the soft track and won 2 of 3 second up. Rock Mylady, Egyptian Ruler, and Elusive Runner all half chances at long odds too.

One For Exotics: Rock Mylady

Prediction: 9-4-10-2

Verdict: Another lottery! No bets.

R4 St Johns Park B.c. (bm72) 1500m

Pirate Ben finished last prep with 3 wins in a row and nearly began this one with a win, narrowly falling by 0.4lengths. Does have a big weight, however the apprentice claim will help. Be fitter for last start and is a great chance. Lanciato hasn’t fulfilled the potential seen in his first Australian run 3 starts back. Didn’t have a lot of room last time but if he can settle well here he’ll give himself a good chance. More To Gain had some great runs last prep towards the end of last year. Didn’t strike first up last time out but will be fitter for the run. Zaunkonig went from winning a maiden to a bm65 to an admirable run behind Pioneering last start. Has potential but jumping so wide won’t help. Tennessee Fling just keeps improving. Her only competitive run on soft she won by 4 lengths. Keep handy at a nice price. Darci’s Affair, Caton & Chaos with minor chances at big odds.

One For Exotics: Darci’s Affair

Prediction: 1-13-3-5

Verdict: An open race but the start of Tennessee Fling’s career excites me and happy to have a small each way bet on her at $12/$3.75

R5 Smithfield Rsl San Domenico 1100m

Small field of six contest this, but gee aren’t they all some talented horses. Capitalist returns after two very good trials and after being scratched last weekend. The Golden Slipper winner is a beaut of a horse who will want to recreate his form as a 3YO. Star Turn was a ranked outsider in the Golden Slipper, running just over three lengths behind eventual winner Capitalist. He turns around 4kg on him here and that should see him run very competitively here. Tango Rain beat last Saturday winner Thronum by 1.3 lengths last start. That is good form going into this race, however he may be lacking in talent in comparison to this lot. Still, 2 from 2 and hard to knock. Manolo Blahniq is an overseas horse who will make his Australian debut here. Won a trial at Hawkesbury and could cause an upset.

One For Exotics: Manolo Blahniq

Prediction: 1-3-4-2

Verdict: A close race probably between Capitalist and Star Turn. Not keen on taking either at such short odds.

R6 Merrylands Rsl Prem Cup Prel. 1800m

Marenostro had a good win last time out, and consequently gains 3.5kg’s to total 60kg here. It is a lot of weight but the appointment of apprentice jockey Koby Jennings (a2) will help. He’s a class horse and the inside draw should help. Rate him highly. Allergic hardly ever runs a poor race and while finishing 6th last time out, was only a couple of lengths behind Marenostro. Turns around some weight on him here too which brings Allergic right in to the race. Likes a soft track and is good at the distance. One that seems massive over-odds is Slow Pace. At the start of the year he actually finished just 0.2 lengths behind Marenostro carrying the same weight, while he has 6kg less here. The race after that he finished 3.2 lengths third behind Allergic, carrying 2.5kg more! 7kg weight swing on that ride and if he can recreate that form he’s a great chance at big odds. May have been a purple patch of form for the 9YO gelding but if he’s at his best he can contest. Sacred Master got going late last time out and was brought over here for the group 1 Metropolitan and hence the increase in distance will help him out. Sweet Fire drops 8kg’s on her last run and could run a nice race too.

One For Exotics: Slow Pace

Prediction: 2-4-10-5

Verdict: Think Marenostro is a good bet at juicy odds and can’t believe the odds given for Slow Pace. Marenostro W @$5.00 and Slow Pace EW @$26/$7.00

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 5 7 10

R7 Canterbury Rsl Spring Preview 1400m

Open race this. Testashadow has had a bit of a spell the last few months. Hasn’t won first up before but he absolutely loves a soft track. Will be one of the key hopes. Cosmic Cube has also had a bit of a break, and returns with a big weight. He’s a great horse and ran well in his last start to just fall short in the Doncaster. Like him a lot but the weight might ask too much of him. Oxford Poet is a good horse who has been running very well this prep. Doesn’t mind this track and distance and will look to get up front and lead. If he can get out early from gate 11 he’s a real hope. Ruling Dynasty is a real hope here for James Cummings. Finished only marginally behind Oxford Poet last start and has shown in the past what he’s capable of. Zin Zan Eddie has good form behind Oxford Poet of late too. Ran only just behind him last time out with a weight advantage of 1.5kg, and now extends that advantage to 2kg. Going off that, there’s no reason he can’t win.

One For Exotics: Zin Zan Eddie

Prediction: 9-2-4-5

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 5 7 9

R8 Clubsnsw (bm92) 1100m

Snoopy is unbeaten first up and the close third to Mahuta last prep looks great form! Hasn’t lost on a wet track and Tommy Berry on board are two massive ticks. Kangarilla Joy trialled well after a good last prep. Also unbeaten fresh and on a soft track but the wide gate won’t help her here. His Majesty ran a close third to Danish Twist in the Provincial Championship in April. Haven’t seen a lot of him since then but don’t rule him out. El Sasso goes in for fourth after a promising start to this prep, and he doesn’t mind a wet track either. Savoureux not the worst at long odds too.

One For Exotics: Savoureux

Prediction: 12-10-8-4

Verdict: I think the top three will be hard to beat. Snoopy gets a better barrier than Kangarilla Joy and therefore think he’ll be on top. Snoopy W @ $4.00

Quaddie Numbers: 8 10 12

R9 Mounties Group Handicap 1350m

We’re Sure has raced in some pretty big races this prep, and has been running better than what the placings suggest. He’s a good horse who will give everything here. Coolcraft resumed last start after a very long spell and ran quite well. Will be much fitter for the hitout and is one of the best chances in this race. More To Gain looks a good chance at some nice odds, with a decent wet track record. Dinghu Mountain is 1 from 1 at the track/distance and loves a soft track. Hard to leave out. One that can run well at big odds is Rhodin Drive. Consistent horse who runs well first up and won 2 on a soft track. Ever So Natural is short odds at the moment and I’m not too sure why. Hasn’t been convincing so far this campaign and yet to win on soft.

One For Exotics: Rhodin Drive

Prediction: 13-11-14-4

Verdict: Fairly open race to finish the day. Not sure any of these are clear winners, however wouldn’t mind a small place bet on Rhodin Drive at $9.50.

Quaddie Numbers: 4 11 13 14 16

Randwick // 6th August

Saturday racing in New South Wales takes us to Randwick with the running of the Group Two Missile Stakes (1200m) and the Randwick City Council Rosebud (1200m). Some good horses running today which should make for a great days entertainment.

R1 Powhf Louisa Hope (bm78) 1800m

Harlem Lady gains 5 and a half kilo’s on her last start where she finished 1 length clear in a bm85. She’s been ever so consistent in higher grades than this in the past. Is a good horse but the only queries are the increase in weight and the fact she hasn’t raced at this distance before. At face value it seems as though she’ll enjoy the extra trip. Firebird Flyer went from winning her maiden to winning a bm71 last time out. Not many can do that and definitely keep handy. Will enjoy a wet track. Defrost My Heart hasn’t been very convincing of late, although her 2nd here two starts ago shows that this isn’t beyond her best. A bit of a shorter trip here which may well suit! Erika has put a few nice runs together now, and although this is harder she stays low in weight.

Verdict: Think Harlem Lady should win but a couple of winning chances.

Prediction: 2-3-1-4

R2 Powhf Roy Billing Oam (bm74) 2400m

Get On The Grange* won well two starts ago in a bm75. Up in weights but some promising runs of late should see him run well here. Lie Direct has been very consistent lately and should sit him well here. Meets Major Major better at the weights here and should be well in this. More Than Fabulous has been running well too and loves a wet track. First go at this distance and hasn’t won at this track before are the only negatives. Braces won last start and before that has shown how much he loves a place! Very consistent gelding and will be around the mark here too. Major Major also a chance from a wide barrier.

Verdict: I think theres not too much value around More Than Fabulous at the $3.70 mark. Get On The Grange has been good and has proved more than the rest here.

Prediction: 1-8-3-2

R3 Jockey Celebration Day (bm81) 1000m

Kangarilla Joy has made a cracking start to her career, winning 3 out of 6 so far and hasn’t lost first up. Does add 6.5kg to her last run in the Fireball Stakes behind some quality horses. Will be fighting til the end. Hot Hit meets Three Sheets 1.5kg better than last time out and has been great this prep. Looks ready to win. Three Sheets has been going well lately. Disappointing not winning last start when backed in to $1.95 favourite, however the two runs before that were great. In with a chance here. Last Witness has won two in a row and is running well of late. Hasn’t won at the track or distance which is a concern.

Verdict: Think its a race between the top 4 favourites. Kangarilla Joy is the best horse in this race but the big weight will give her a challenge. Hot Hit looks ready to win, while Three Sheets and Last Witness all have a claim.

Prediction: 1-7-5-4

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Appoint Percy* hasn’t missed the top four since coming over to Australia from NZ. 2 runs first up for a second and third, and 100% record at the track and at the distance. Plenty of positives about him.Explosive Scene drops 4kg’s on what was a good run last start and that should see him be right around the mark. Boasts a half a length second to King’s Officer three starts back. Attainment loves a wet track and so if the track here is heavy, look out. Even still, he’s in good form and is a chance here. A Magic Zariz is a fine young country horse who has strung two in a row. Tougher here but wouldn’t surprise.

Verdict: Appoint Percy is in fine form and going to go with him here.

Update: With Appoint Percy scratched, it opens the door for Explosive Scene and Attainment; also keep an eye on Snipps Parade.

Prediction: 6-5-4-12

R5 Mark Moran Missile Stakes 1200m

Capitalist will return if the conditions suit and will start hot favourite. If he runs you’d expect him to bolt in. If he doesn’t, it’s probably a race between Rebel Dane, Generalife and Big Money. These three are all good horses who have shown what they’re capable of at some stage in the past.

Verdict: If Capitalist runs he’ll win. Too short at $1.55 for mine though!

Update: Capitalist won’t run which will open up the race. Rebel Dane should probably win with Generalife scratched. Big Money comes in to be rated second, with Mount Nebo picked for third.

Prediction: 1-3-4-5

R6 Randwick City Council Rosebud 1200m

Mediterranean* has not lost on a rain affected track so far. Flew in last start to win by nearly two lengths. Looks one of the best chances. Thronum won his maiden at Kembla Grange before blowing them away in a 2YO Handicap at Randwick. Missed the start last time out which cost him the race. Not beyond him to bounce back. Quick Feet looks like a winning chance also. Was a Golden Slipper runner and trialled well since then. A good horse who must be respected. Hair Trigger finished well just behind Thronum last start. Gains half a kilo on him here though. One at odds who is in this is Lasqueti Spirit. Her last run was encouraging and performed well at big odds in a fairly big race.

Verdict: I think Mediterranean is going to be a star. Short odds here but happy to take them at $2.30.

Prediction: 3-2-1-4

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 3

R7 The Wallaby Cup (bm78) 1600m

This is a really open race! Quick Defence will start favourite after bolting in last start by 3.5 lengths. Didn’t start off this prep very well but returned to winning ways. One of the better hopes. Suboric, while finishing 5th last start, wasn’t actually far off them with a big weight. Drops a kilo and has been flying. A great chance. So Willie is a good horse who will be looking to improve on last start’s close second. Hold’s his weight but the wide barrier is a query. Dark Eyes finished with them very well last start and can’t be ignored. Dubaiinstyle is a great hope with a good weight turn around on previous runs against those in the field, and Big Arty can definitely threaten after a few good runs.

Verdict: Too open for a bet so let’s go wide in the quaddie.

Prediction: 3-5-7-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 6 7 10

R8 Powhf Directors (bm83) 1200m

Dixie Blossoms* was G3 placed in her first prep. Ran some very nice races and we saw a glimpse of what she’s truly capable of. Won fresh last time and this looks a good race for her. Tree Of Jesse was really disappointing last time. Went back to trial where she ran well. Is capable of winning races like these at nice each way odds. Viaductress will be fitter for her first up run last time out. Drops 5kg’s here which will give her every chance. Tremor was really good last start finishing a close second at Rosehill. Loses 4kg’s on that run and this looks easily winnable for her. Others with a small chance are Allez Chival and Rock On Zariz.

Verdict: We went wide in the quad last leg so lets trim this down a bit. I think Dixie Blossoms will be hard to beat, but the ones that could beat her are Tree Of Jesse, Viaductress and Tremor.

Update: No Tremor here, and Allez Chival was scratched from race 9 to run in this one. Definitely keep handy!

Prediction: 2-8-4-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 8 6

R9 Rotary Club Of Botany Bay-bm78 1200m

Burning Passion won brilliantly last time out by 3.5 lengths. He looks a great horse but gains 5kg’s which will make it a challenge. Chetwood‘s opening preparation was excellent, running third to Lady Sniper in the Gosford Guineas. He looks a promising sort and should have relished the break. Likely to give this a shake. Cannyescent is probably the next bet chance. 2 from 2 first up, and both wins on a wet track. Keep handy. Star Shaft the best of the rest.

Verdict: I think that Chetwood has the edge over Burning Passion, purely based on the latter’s heavy weight.

Update: Chetwood scratched and the only two that look like threatening here are Burning Passion and Cannyescent. Still keep Star Shaft handy.

Prediction: 2-11-13

Quaddie Numbers: 2 11 13

Best Bets:

R2 – #1 Get On The Grange EW @ $8.00/$2.40

R4 – #1 Appoint Percy W @ $3.70

R6 – #3 Mediterranean W@ $2.30

R8 – #2 Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.20