Warwick Farm // 3rd August

Midweek racing in NSW takes us to Warwick Farm in the first week of August! Some big fields here will make for some longer odd horses in with a shot.

R1 Myboycharlie @ Vinery Mdn Hcp 1100m

Some very good three year olds battle it out in race one which should be a great contest. Pittsburg* is yet to win after four starts, however has been running in some big races. Finished not too far back from Yankee Rose on a couple of occasions and should be up there here. Ebenos has put together a couple of nice trials on a soft track of late, and will look to be competitive in his first start from the wide draw. Glenall ran a close second in a recent trial and has his first start here. Is currently favourite on the fixed price at $4.50 but not sure his trial form has been too strong. Coonawarra is another debutant in this race and is running for Waterhouse & Bott. Scored by a nose in recent trial and looks to be overs at current price of $17.

Verdict: Think Pittsburg’s form will be too strong. His only start on a wet track (heavy) he finished a very close second. Plenty of value around him but this is not an easy race by any means. A few unknowns here and wouldn’t put it past Ebenos, Glenall, and Coonawarra either, therefore take Pittsburg each way.

Prediction: 1-5-6-4

R2 Tab More Than Just Winning Mdn 1100m

Another maiden here with 15 runners. Cocoexcel absolutely bolted in by 2.5lengths in her last trial, on a soft track at Rosehill. Two winning trials together now and looks like she’s in tip top shape. Red Hearts has done the same, winning her last two trials on a soft track however at Randwick. Think that these two are the two to beat. Larapineta has only has the one start and finished 9th, however was not disgraced, beaten 4.6 lengths by Calliope in a big race. Will have her admirers and isn’t without a chance. Moqueen’s last two starts have been quite promising, running in some big races at Randwick and Rosehill. Definitely with a chance and shouldn’t be ignored. In Times Of War could also surprise some, finishing a close second in her only trial on a soft track.

Verdict: I think this should be a contest between Cocoexcel and Red Hearts, however the others aren’t without chances. Cocoexcel has the edge over Red Hearts; I just think she’s been more convincing. Larapineta, Moqueen and In Times Of War should fight it out for the minor placings.

Prediction: 4-11-1-7

R3 Mcgrath Estate Agents (bm67) 2200m

Shorter field here but tougher race to pick! Major Major scored by half a length last start at Randwick but gains 7.5kg here! Very big weight swing might make this tough. Elusive Runner only recently resumed after a very long spell. Hasn’t quite come back in inspired form but should be fitter after first three starts back. In with a shot. Consented has finished runner up in his last four starts now. Drops 8.5kg here which will be very handy however hasn’t won on a soft track. I think theres a bit of value around Chaquinta. Low in weights and does enjoy a wet track; keep handy.

Verdict: Very tough race and happy to sit this one out.

Prediction: 2-1-4-9

R4 Tab.com.au (bm66) 1200m

Such an open race. Happy to sit this one out completely.

R5 #theraces (bm67) 1200m

Another really tough race! Perizada has been really good this prep and does enjoy a wet track. Will probably start favourite with a relatively low weight. Rakitno won her maiden well, and then was competitive at Canterbury in a bm70. Not without a chance. Little Miss Brown* won her maiden in April, and then won a trial just over a week ago. Will look to make the most of the wet track and should run well. Art’n’Ollie won by 5 lengths at Narromine last start and drops a few kilo’s on that run. Wasn’t the toughest field last time out but winning form is winning form. Lot Three Four One has been running in much higher grades of late and should perform well here.

Verdict: Another tough race with many chances. I do like the look of Little Miss Brown at $14, as her only start on a soft track she won by nearly two lengths.

Prediction: 12-8-10-13

R6 Pro-ride (bm70) 1400m

Sniper* won well first up Canterbury when finishing 1.7lengths in front of rival Choice Larga. No change in the weights here and going off that form Sniper should have the edge. Choice Larga is not to be dismissed however. He has been very consistent this prep and shouldn’t be ignored. Conarchie is a good horse who will be super competitive here. Has been running in higher grades than this, however the high weight of 61kg will be a challenge. Bells Of War has been very consistent of late and this grade is not beyond her. Will enjoy the relatively low weight and should be coming home strong towards the end. Big Arty also seems to have found some form winning his last two, and will look to improve on that here.

Verdict: I think the Sniper/Choice Larga form is good and if Sniper has overcome his respiratory issues of last start he should be the main threat.

Prediction: 4-3-12-1

R7 Tab Rewards (bm66) 1600m

Last race of the short card today and it’s another tough race. Crown Moss enjoys a wet track and won last time out at Wyong in a similar grade. Zadok The Priest has strung together four wins in a row, and last start winning in a bm70 on a soft track. Looks the goods here. Aurora Glow loves a soft track and her last two runs have been promising. Does hold a lot of weight which might make it tough. Granite Belt moved to a soft track in his last two starts and won them both, including breaking his maiden. Is the top weight but actually loses a kilo on last start. Definitely in with a shot.

Verdict: Zadok The Priest is flying at the moment but can he keep it up? Crown Moss won well last start but was that a fluke? Aurora Glow seems the best chance with her soft track form and therefore she’s on top.

Prediction: 15-14-7-1

Best Bets:

R1 – #1 Pittsburg EW @ $6/$2.25

R5 – #8 Little Miss Brown EW @ $14/$4.30

R6 – #4 Sniper EW @ $9.50/$3.20

 

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