Randwick // 6th August

Saturday racing in New South Wales takes us to Randwick with the running of the Group Two Missile Stakes (1200m) and the Randwick City Council Rosebud (1200m). Some good horses running today which should make for a great days entertainment.

R1 Powhf Louisa Hope (bm78) 1800m

Harlem Lady gains 5 and a half kilo’s on her last start where she finished 1 length clear in a bm85. She’s been ever so consistent in higher grades than this in the past. Is a good horse but the only queries are the increase in weight and the fact she hasn’t raced at this distance before. At face value it seems as though she’ll enjoy the extra trip. Firebird Flyer went from winning her maiden to winning a bm71 last time out. Not many can do that and definitely keep handy. Will enjoy a wet track. Defrost My Heart hasn’t been very convincing of late, although her 2nd here two starts ago shows that this isn’t beyond her best. A bit of a shorter trip here which may well suit! Erika has put a few nice runs together now, and although this is harder she stays low in weight.

Verdict: Think Harlem Lady should win but a couple of winning chances.

Prediction: 2-3-1-4

R2 Powhf Roy Billing Oam (bm74) 2400m

Get On The Grange* won well two starts ago in a bm75. Up in weights but some promising runs of late should see him run well here. Lie Direct has been very consistent lately and should sit him well here. Meets Major Major better at the weights here and should be well in this. More Than Fabulous has been running well too and loves a wet track. First go at this distance and hasn’t won at this track before are the only negatives. Braces won last start and before that has shown how much he loves a place! Very consistent gelding and will be around the mark here too. Major Major also a chance from a wide barrier.

Verdict: I think theres not too much value around More Than Fabulous at the $3.70 mark. Get On The Grange has been good and has proved more than the rest here.

Prediction: 1-8-3-2

R3 Jockey Celebration Day (bm81) 1000m

Kangarilla Joy has made a cracking start to her career, winning 3 out of 6 so far and hasn’t lost first up. Does add 6.5kg to her last run in the Fireball Stakes behind some quality horses. Will be fighting til the end. Hot Hit meets Three Sheets 1.5kg better than last time out and has been great this prep. Looks ready to win. Three Sheets has been going well lately. Disappointing not winning last start when backed in to $1.95 favourite, however the two runs before that were great. In with a chance here. Last Witness has won two in a row and is running well of late. Hasn’t won at the track or distance which is a concern.

Verdict: Think its a race between the top 4 favourites. Kangarilla Joy is the best horse in this race but the big weight will give her a challenge. Hot Hit looks ready to win, while Three Sheets and Last Witness all have a claim.

Prediction: 1-7-5-4

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Appoint Percy* hasn’t missed the top four since coming over to Australia from NZ. 2 runs first up for a second and third, and 100% record at the track and at the distance. Plenty of positives about him.Explosive Scene drops 4kg’s on what was a good run last start and that should see him be right around the mark. Boasts a half a length second to King’s Officer three starts back. Attainment loves a wet track and so if the track here is heavy, look out. Even still, he’s in good form and is a chance here. A Magic Zariz is a fine young country horse who has strung two in a row. Tougher here but wouldn’t surprise.

Verdict: Appoint Percy is in fine form and going to go with him here.

Update: With Appoint Percy scratched, it opens the door for Explosive Scene and Attainment; also keep an eye on Snipps Parade.

Prediction: 6-5-4-12

R5 Mark Moran Missile Stakes 1200m

Capitalist will return if the conditions suit and will start hot favourite. If he runs you’d expect him to bolt in. If he doesn’t, it’s probably a race between Rebel Dane, Generalife and Big Money. These three are all good horses who have shown what they’re capable of at some stage in the past.

Verdict: If Capitalist runs he’ll win. Too short at $1.55 for mine though!

Update: Capitalist won’t run which will open up the race. Rebel Dane should probably win with Generalife scratched. Big Money comes in to be rated second, with Mount Nebo picked for third.

Prediction: 1-3-4-5

R6 Randwick City Council Rosebud 1200m

Mediterranean* has not lost on a rain affected track so far. Flew in last start to win by nearly two lengths. Looks one of the best chances. Thronum won his maiden at Kembla Grange before blowing them away in a 2YO Handicap at Randwick. Missed the start last time out which cost him the race. Not beyond him to bounce back. Quick Feet looks like a winning chance also. Was a Golden Slipper runner and trialled well since then. A good horse who must be respected. Hair Trigger finished well just behind Thronum last start. Gains half a kilo on him here though. One at odds who is in this is Lasqueti Spirit. Her last run was encouraging and performed well at big odds in a fairly big race.

Verdict: I think Mediterranean is going to be a star. Short odds here but happy to take them at $2.30.

Prediction: 3-2-1-4

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 3

R7 The Wallaby Cup (bm78) 1600m

This is a really open race! Quick Defence will start favourite after bolting in last start by 3.5 lengths. Didn’t start off this prep very well but returned to winning ways. One of the better hopes. Suboric, while finishing 5th last start, wasn’t actually far off them with a big weight. Drops a kilo and has been flying. A great chance. So Willie is a good horse who will be looking to improve on last start’s close second. Hold’s his weight but the wide barrier is a query. Dark Eyes finished with them very well last start and can’t be ignored. Dubaiinstyle is a great hope with a good weight turn around on previous runs against those in the field, and Big Arty can definitely threaten after a few good runs.

Verdict: Too open for a bet so let’s go wide in the quaddie.

Prediction: 3-5-7-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 6 7 10

R8 Powhf Directors (bm83) 1200m

Dixie Blossoms* was G3 placed in her first prep. Ran some very nice races and we saw a glimpse of what she’s truly capable of. Won fresh last time and this looks a good race for her. Tree Of Jesse was really disappointing last time. Went back to trial where she ran well. Is capable of winning races like these at nice each way odds. Viaductress will be fitter for her first up run last time out. Drops 5kg’s here which will give her every chance. Tremor was really good last start finishing a close second at Rosehill. Loses 4kg’s on that run and this looks easily winnable for her. Others with a small chance are Allez Chival and Rock On Zariz.

Verdict: We went wide in the quad last leg so lets trim this down a bit. I think Dixie Blossoms will be hard to beat, but the ones that could beat her are Tree Of Jesse, Viaductress and Tremor.

Update: No Tremor here, and Allez Chival was scratched from race 9 to run in this one. Definitely keep handy!

Prediction: 2-8-4-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 8 6

R9 Rotary Club Of Botany Bay-bm78 1200m

Burning Passion won brilliantly last time out by 3.5 lengths. He looks a great horse but gains 5kg’s which will make it a challenge. Chetwood‘s opening preparation was excellent, running third to Lady Sniper in the Gosford Guineas. He looks a promising sort and should have relished the break. Likely to give this a shake. Cannyescent is probably the next bet chance. 2 from 2 first up, and both wins on a wet track. Keep handy. Star Shaft the best of the rest.

Verdict: I think that Chetwood has the edge over Burning Passion, purely based on the latter’s heavy weight.

Update: Chetwood scratched and the only two that look like threatening here are Burning Passion and Cannyescent. Still keep Star Shaft handy.

Prediction: 2-11-13

Quaddie Numbers: 2 11 13

Best Bets:

R2 – #1 Get On The Grange EW @ $8.00/$2.40

R4 – #1 Appoint Percy W @ $3.70

R6 – #3 Mediterranean W@ $2.30

R8 – #2 Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.20

 

 

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