We managed to get all the winners in our preview last week at Flemington, good for those exotics players! From a betting perspective, early markets gave us the edge where we managed 2 out of 5 winners to make a small profit. Lets keep the streak rolling this weekend where there is some high quality horses resuming. Weather looks good between now (Wednesday) and Saturday so we should be racing on a Good 4.
The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the Group 3 $150,000 KS Environmental Vain Stakes (Race 5), the Group 3 $150,000 Winslow Group Stakes (Race 6) and the Group 2 $200,000 PB Lawrence Stakes (Race 7).
All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.
Race 1 Benchmark 84 2000m
O’Lonera is absolutely flying at the moment. She won comfortably last time and isn’t hindered by the drop back in distance. Hard to knock Hursley. He gets a nice weight drop off a solid win last time. Has drawn well and should be in the finish. Khutulun saves her best for Caulfield; I think the 3 year old form (now 4 year olds) is a bit stronger that what she’s been racing in. Not sure if Name The Day will measure up here but his form has been very good this prep. Electric Fusion could bob up at odds back on the firmer surface.
One for exotics: Electric Fusion ($34)
Race prediction: 6-4-3-5
Verdict: Pretty tough race with 4 last start winners. O’Lonera should be very hard to beat. No bets.
Race 2 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m
Savannah Moon ran well last week and is suited with the drop back to the mile. She showed great fight at her start prior beating a subsequent winner and that form looks good enough for this. Choice was well backed first up and finished strongly. Jumping to the mile looks a bit of a query second up but she does do her best racing over this trip. Kaniana didn’t enjoy the best run last week losing momentum at a key stage. She should run out a strong mile. Gets in with no weight. Rustic Melody looks as though she should be competitive here. Kris Lees doesn’t bring them over very often. Throw a blanket over the rest.
One for exotics: None
Race prediction: 5-3-7-1
Verdict: Looks an ugly race. No bets.
Race 3 Benchmark 84 1600m
Pretty keen on Leica Day here. He’s never won second up but loves the track and loves the distance. He was desperately unlucky not to finish closer when blocked for a run at a crucial stage behind a subsequent winner Ulmann. Wide draw suits. Volcanic Ash is edging closer to a win and does his best racing here. Would like to see one more run before I jump on. Caprese is a get back and run on type who makes his own luck. Oliver jumps off and he’s never run at the mile but it looks as if it would suit. Up in class. By The Grace has a stack of weight and wants it wet. Forgive last time? Magic Consol goes in next.
One for exotics: None
Race prediction: 4-8-9-1
Verdict: Drink beer back Weir. Leica Day W@3.80
Race 4 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1100m
Ocean Embers was huge first up here and came from a long way back against the bias at Morphettville in the lightning stakes. She gets in on the minimum and should appreciate the extra 50 metres. Mossin Around boasts a first up win over Tsarita. Has some classy 3YO form but monitor the betting. Atmospherical was given every possible chance with a dream ride last time. The form from that race has been franked and she has a great second up record. Chiavari is six weeks between runs. She’s flying this prep and looks a winning chance. Wants it wetter though. Cana looks the best roughie for multiples. Impossible to line up the Sydneysiders Glenbawn Dame and Awasita, but their interstate form has been solid.
One for exotics: Cana ($16)
Race prediction: 8-6-1-5
Verdict: Ocean Embers to bounce back. Ocean Embers W@4.00
Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Group 3 1100m
Highland Beat looks ready to produce on his return after a nice trial. Never won here but rarely far away. Artie Dee Two won a solid race at the Valley two months ago. He should appreciate the freshen up. Russian Revolution looks to be a promising colt, unproven at this level though and $2.30? Valliano won a handy race here fresh last prep. He’s more than capable of taking this one out. Power Trip isn’t hopeless at big odds, Wazzenme goes in next.
One for exotics: Highland Beat ($10)
Race prediction: 4-6-5-1
Verdict: Wide open race for the new 3 year olds. No bets.
Race 6 3YO Fillies Group 3 1100m
Merriest won impressively over this track and trip on debut before flopping down the straight. Keen to see her around a bend again. Concealer ran a huge race in the blue diamond prelude fresh last prep. Look for her to be storming home late. Hot Dipped looks the best roughie. She’s trialled well and was well backed in a group 2 at Flemington before not running up to expectations. Immediately spelled. Wary of Conscious. She should take great improvement from her one run last prep. Modern Wonder is another who has to be included, does look under the odds at $5.50 though. Sword of Light looks to be just a fresh performer, has to go in on her first up effort though.
One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($21)
Race prediction: 11-1-5-13
Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13
Verdict: Might have a very small each way bet on Hot Dipped in another open race. Hot Dipped E.W@21:6.00
Race 7 3YO+ PB Lawrence Stakes Group 2 1400m
The feature of the day and i’m leaning towards Suavito. She flies first up and has won her last 3 fresh over this track and distance. The firm track is a big tick and her form around Lucky Hussler and Turn Me Loose looks more than good enough for this. Mahuta looks the biggest danger. Weir said he’d need the run first up and he ran well over an unsuitable distance after being wide throughout. He’s unbeaten over 1400 and has drawn to get the run of the race. Miss Rose de Lago does her best racing here. Oliver has chosen her over Suavito and Lord of the Sky, that may be an indication of how she’s going. The Cleaner was just edged out in this race last year. This looks to be a stronger version of the race but i’m keen to see if Gelagotis has got him back to peak condition. Smokin’ Joey looks to have come back in good order. Could be the blow out. Entirely Platinum boasts a 0.1L second fresh to Boban over this trip, more than good enough if right. Lord of the Sky is a freak on his day, the throat operation seems to have worked but i don’t think 1400 is his go. Jameka for wider exotics.
One for exotics: The Cleaner ($10)
Race prediction: 12-11-14-2
Quaddie selections: 2, 11, 12, 14
Verdict: Looks a great edition of the PB Lawrence stakes. Suavito to make it 4 on the trot fresh. Suavito W@6.00.
Race 8 4YO+ Regal Roller Stakes 1200m
Voodoo Lad has started favourite at every one of his 13 starts and has never missed the trifecta. He was throwing his head around down the straight at his previous two and i’m keen to see him around a bend again. Fast ’n’ Rocking’s racing pattern requires the right tempo and a bit of luck (as seen by 5 wins from 41 starts). He’s got 60kg here and although he’s clearly the class of the field I can’t see any value at $3. Girl Guide was given absolutely no hope by Williams first up. Hopefully she settles a bit closer from gate one, 11$ was a steal when markets opened. Snoopy resumes a gelding and is unbeaten fresh. Big watch. Nautical won first up off a similar break last time beating home Odyssey Moon. Think she might find these a bit too slick. This looks to be a tune up for Palentino. Back him in a few starts time.
One for exotics: Girl Guide ($11)
Race prediction: 5-1-3-9
Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 5
Verdict: Fast ’n’ Rocking wins if the tempos on. No bets.
Race 9 Benchmark 78 1400m
Magicus should’ve finished closer last time behind Marwood. Has drawn wide today so provided he gets cover he should be hard to hold out. Second crack at 1400 and should be fitter for it. Mr Individual was well backed over this track and distance last start and did it easy. Divine Mr Artie came out of that race a winner but he was given no hope with the tempo on the day. Prince of Brooklyn came from a minute back last time in a pretty handy 3YO race. He’s drawn wide again and will most likely be spotting the leaders a fair old margin at the bend. Bon Rocket ran well in this grade fresh over 1100. Looks a good chance at odds back onto the firmer track. Vostok has Group 3 form, just fair first up on heavy.
One for exotics: Bon Rocket ($13)
Race prediction: 5-6-8-3
Quaddie selections: 6, 8
Verdict: A race with few chances, think Magicus will drift and depending on odds I may bet.
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