Caulfield // August 27th

The track is currently rated a Soft 5. With clear weather between now (Thursday) and Saturday we should be running in the Good range. Huge day at Caulfield with the first group 1 of the season.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the $150,000 Resimax Stakes (Race 5), the $150,000 McNeil Stakes (Race 6), the $500,000 Memsie Stakes (Race 7) and the $150,000 Cockram Stakes (Race 9).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO Fillies  Benchmark 78 1400m

Leotie looks a smart filly. Made the jump from maiden grade last start and seems as though 1400 will suit. Perfectly Safe is a winning chance but does look under the current odds available. Might get an easy lead and be hard to run down. Sebrikka does her best when her runs are well spaced. Come into this off a 7 week break and rates highly. Think her latest effort wasn’t as strong as the top pick. Hot Dipped didn’t do enough first up whereas Smart As You Think might need the run first up over 1400.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($10)

Race prediction: 3-4-2-1

Verdict: Leotie clearly the one to beat, even money looks a bit short.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1400m

Jungle Edge would be top pick had he not run yesterday. Damien Oliver gave Prince of Brooklyn a peach of a ride last start settling him much closer to the speed from the wide barrier. Most of these horses are resuming whilst he has race fitness. Should be very hard to hold out on the weight minimum. Tarquin looks a big threat first up with just 52.5 kilos. Wary this may be just a tune up . He’s Our Rokkii found his best form on the rain affected tracks last prep over further. He should be doing his best work late. Maurus creates plenty of interest, place looks best?

One for exotics: Maurus ($17)

Race prediction: 9-6-4-1

Verdict: Prince of Brooklyn to go back to back. Prince of Brooklyn W@2.70

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1400m

My Sister Lil was a bit stiff last start. Kaniana has come out of that race a winner but others have also flopped. 4:0-0-0 at the track and 8:0-2-0 at the distance are big queries but has to be included on her last two. Majestic Lass stormed home last start behind two that held their ground in city class last week. Will be better on the firmer track and up in distance. Takeover looks the best roughie at 81$. Keeps getting sent out at huge odds and is rarely far away. Wide barrier hurts but could run into a place. Gabella will be one to watch over further this spring. Antelucan is more than capable, will be watching her first up though.

One for exotics: Takeover ($81)

Race prediction: 5-11-15-2

Verdict: Will be keeping a keen eye on a few of these mares for later in spring, not keen to bet though.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1200m

Spirit or Lager looks over the odds at 26$. He has a good record second up and won well on the synthetic first up. His form around Duke of Brunswick and Fast Cash puts him right in this. Badajoz has drawn in and gets a nice weight swing on Camdus for a half length margin last start. Today looks to be his best chance for a win. Our Harmony is well placed after the 3kg claim. Has a great record at 1200. Heza Ripper should get an easy lead from barrier 1. Prefer him on wetter though. Will be risking Camdus from the wide barrier, two solid efforts at 1200 this prep though. Eager to see the return of Bon Aurum. He looked a pretty talented 3 year old late last year. The Justice League first up for Weir gets the ultimate gear change. Hard to assess.

One for exotics: Spirit or Lager ($26)

Race prediction: 5-12-9-7

Verdict: Very open race, will have something very small on Spirit or Lager. Spirit or Lager E.W@26:8.00.

Race 5 4YO+ Resimax Stakes (G3) 1100m

Miss Promiscuity is one of my personal favourites and she flies fresh. If its a slow tempo and she settles close to the speed she might be hard to reel in. She does her best work at Caulfield and over the short trips. Under The Louvre is a freak and can pull of some slick sectionals. I think he’s a lay at his current odds of 2.80 over this distance. He’ll need the tempo on and will most likely get right back from the barrier. Shiraz gets the blinkers on today and didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up. He’s got a great record second up, over this distance range and on the firmer surface. Big watch. We’ve Got This is a good fresh horse, not overly convinced he’s up to this class though. Santa Ana Lane won here fresh last prep and is my pick of the new 4 year olds. Dan Zephyr and Trevinder aren’t hopeless at big odds.

One for exotics: Shiraz ($10)

Race prediction: 13-1-2-9

Verdict: Another pretty open race. No bets.

Race 6 3YO McNeil Stakes (G3) 1200m

Awake in Grinzing only won a Sandown Lakeside maiden on debut but he came from last on the heavy track to win in impressive fashion. Defcon came from the tail over this distance to easily beat Prized Icon before a forgive run in the Slipper. Good enough if right first up. It’s hard to assess who is the horse to take out of the Vain Stakes. Highland Beat was resuming and finished well, should appreciate the extra 100 metres. Revolving Door was also resuming and was wide throughout, he stuck on well. Wazzenme is another who will run well over 1200 and gets the blinkers on today. Hardham took the rails run and looked to have his chance last start, is a genuine winning hope but can’t have him as favourite. Blue Tycoon is another big watch first up. Whilst Seaburge has to go in too off some very nice trials.

One for exotics: Awake in Grinzing ($13)

Race prediction: 10-1-3-6

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14

Verdict: Hard to have a confident bet here. Going very wide in the quaddie. No bets.

Race 7 3YO+ Memsie Stakes (G1) 1400m

Black Heart Bart does look the one to beat here. He thrives at this distance range and has drawn to get a nice run. The only query is he’s never raced first up at 1400 before. Oliver back on Lord Of The Sky is a big tick. Still not convinced he’s a 1400 metre horse though. They ran quick early and he was entitled to drop out last start but stuck on okay. Mahuta can be forgiven as he was found lame last start, would prefer him around the 10$ quote though. Not convinced Palentino loves Caulfield but the distance rise gives him claims. McEvoy is trying plenty of gear changes with Alpine Eagle today. He’s too good to ignore despite his fresh failure in May. All three of Hayes horses have minor claims.

One for exotics: Lord of the Sky ($14)

Race prediction: 2-3-8-11

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 8, 11

Verdict: Backing Black Heart Bart for the win. Black Heart Bart W@3.10

Race 8 Heatherlie Stakes (Listed) 1700m

Magnapal won this race last year. He closed very well last start and was a touch unlucky not to finish closer. Should relish every bit of 1700 metres and is the one to beat. Tom Melbourne is twice a winner first up. He was super impressive his first two runs last prep before going amiss in the Mornington Cup. Good hope. Provocative is the unknown factor. She was huge in the Queensland Oaks, I’m not overly convinced how strong that race was and she’s never won in this class over this distance before. Second Bullet can run a race here with 54 on his back. Has beaten Killarney Kid over 2000. Longeron is 7 weeks between runs. I think he might just need this one but he has a fantastic record here.

One for exotics: Second Bullet ($10)

Race prediction: 4-3-11-7

Quaddie selections: 3, 4, 7, 14

Verdict: Happy to have a bet on Magnapal after his effort in the PB Lawrence. Magnapal W@7.50

Race 9 4YO+ Mares Cockram Stakes (G3) 1200m

Choose is twice a winner fresh and this is her best distance. Crossed the line with Azkadellia over 1200 last preparation. Ocean Embers looks ready for this class now, she’s going to need a lot of luck from the barrier but is absolutely flying this prep. Telopea is as genuine as they come, she looked good in her win before the break. Last go at 1200 she came from last to nab second. Kayjay’s Joy was massive first up last preparation. She’s drawn wide and is another who will need luck but can’t be ignored. Mossin Around lost momentum at a key stage first up, hard to know if she would’ve challenged the winner but she definitely would’ve been a lot closer. Suspect there isn’t much between Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court. The latter ticks plenty of boxes whilst the former is very consistent.

One for exotics: Choose ($14)

Race prediction: 5, 13, 9, 8

Quaddie selections: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13

Verdict: Choose looks a value hope at big odds in a very open race. No bets.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s