Randwick // 3rd September

Saturday takes us to Randwick for the featured running of the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and Tramway Stakes (1400m). Winx returns and is a current hot favourite to take out the Chelmsford Stakes.

There looks to be a fair bit of rain around Sydney this week and we could see the track downgraded from its current Soft rating to Heavy. Wet track form will be important for this meeting.

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Photo: The Randwick Grandstand

R1 Schweppes (bm80) 1600m

Signposted has won his last three starts, all of which on wet tracks. Bolted home by 4 lengths last start on a heavy track and loses weight here. Will look to lead the entire way and will be hard to beat. So Willie found the line very nicely last time out, however the trip his is 400m shorter. Usually runs well at this distance and loves a really wet track. Should be competitive with Bowman on board and down in weight. I think Zayam is a good each way chance here. He obviously wasn’t right last start, however he has shown some great potential at this track on wet ground in the past, and wouldn’t be surprised if he caused an upset here. Bolord enjoys this distance and has won second up in the past. Was promising last start on soft ground and found the line well. Salthouse looks to be a promising, lightly raced gelding, however is unproven on a wet track and hence I’m inclined to leave him out.

One For Exotics: Zayam

Prediction: 1-5-2-7

Verdict: Signposted

R2 Tab Supports Jockey Trust-bm78 2000m

Dubaiinstyle has gone 2 in a row now and looking for three! Loves the wet tracks and and should get a nice sit from barrier four. One of the key players here but think that the increase in weight may catch up with him here. Dowdstown Charlie kicked well last time out to finish a close second behind Paragon. Loves wet tracks and drops 2 kilo’s here. Will give this a big shake up. Lanciato has good soft track stats, and ran on okay last time out. Loses some weight which will help but yet to win over 1600m an issue. Rainbow Park ran well last start to finish second at nice odds. Only win on a soft track at this distance, and loses 3kg here. Could be a sneaky outside chance. Zero To Ten and Dure the next best at each way odds.

One For Exotics: Dowdstown Charlie

Prediction: 6-4-5-10

Verdict: Dowdstown Charlie

R3 Daily Telegraph Ming Dynasty 1400m

 

High Mist found the line well last start after finding himself back in the field. Has won and placed on a soft track before and the wet looks to help him here. Won first up last prep and this looks achievable. Skylight Glow has won on soft ground before and will be fresh. Will carry the most weight but enjoys sitting on the pace. Not out of it. Taj Mahal will be fitter for last start, and the increase in distance will help. Has potential and will look to impress here. Only query is no form on wet tracks. Swear scored a very nice victory earlier this year and is yet to race since then. Was a highly valued colt at sale and will want to go on with it here. Keep very handy.

One For Exotics: Skylight Glow

Prediction: 4-1-2-3

Verdict: High Mist

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Galaxy Warrior bolted in last outing 4.5L with 61.5kg! Loses 2.5kg on that run and should be quite dominant here. Was his first run on soft ground last time out, too. Grand Rouge has been close to a break through of late and scores a nice weight relief here. Enjoys this distance and proven on a heavy track, keep handy! Squidensquizz has won more than once on a wet track and has also won at the distance. Wasn’t too far behind them last outing and also loses some weight. A good each way chance. Luxury likes a soft track however is yet to place at the distance. Railed nicely last outing to finish well, and loses weight on that here. Wider chances are Trying, No When To Hold Em, and Assurity.

One For Exotics: Grand Rouge

Prediction: 1-11-4-2

Verdict: Galaxy Warrior

R5 The Mostyn Copper Group (bm92) 1400m

Tsaritsa is a very good horse. Was absolutely flying last prep, and only stumbled when drawn inside at Eagle Farm, on a day where the track near the rail was horrendous. Bags of potential and really like her, she should be right up there. Burning Passion fell narrowly last outing, where he held 5.5kg more than he does here. The track was fairly disastrous that day too so there are a few excuses for him. The drop in weight will help a lot, as well as the wet track where his best form lies. Look for him to be just behind the leading pack and to be swooping late. Syper Tycoon is shooting for 5 in a row here! Has been flying on the soft tracks in Sydney and dropping 2kg on last start will definitely help. Step up in class but this isn’t out of the question. Torgersen has some form behind Syper Tycoon and gets a bit of weight swing on him here. Will be tough, but with some luck he could sneak home. Testashadow and Zin Zan Eddie the next best.

One For Exotics: Super Tycoon

Prediction: 5-9-6-7

Verdict: Tsaritsa

R6 Fitzy & Wippa’s Fast & Furious 1200m

I Am A Star was a huge winner last outing, beating the highly fancied Leotie who went on to win last weekend. Looks to be the most talented horse in this race. One of the best chances of the day. Get on. Honesty Prevails was only 3 lengths behind them in the Golden Slipper. This is her first race since then and the jury will be out, but definitely in the mix! Awoke looks a horse who really enjoys a rain affected track. 2 from two in her short career and has bags of potential. Trialled well on a heavy track in the past and is amongst the good chances here. Global Glamour won her only start at Kembla Grange on a heavy track by 6.3L! Good signs for her on todays bogged track. Has trialled very well since then and this looks a realistic hope. Foxplay is another one who has shown potential. She won a 2YO Handicap on a soft track a couple back but yet to run on heavy. Keep safe. For wider exotics include Rather Sweet. She won her maiden on a wet track last time out, and the trial prior to that she won on a heavy track by nearly 3 lengths.

One For Exotics: Honesty Prevails

Prediction: 1-12-2-8

Verdict: I Am A Star

Quaddie: 1 2 7 8 12

R7 Tatts Club Chelmsford Stakes 1600m

Winx has been scratched! The champ mare won’t run here which leaves the door open for a few others here. Prized Icon showed glimpses of ability as a 2YO and now resumes a year older. He was good last outing running on with a big weight, and now finds himself 10.5kg to run 8.5kg lighter than any other competitor! You’d think he’d be too good with that advantage. Hartnell is placed both runs on a heavy track and looks to be the only threat. He loves it second up and will look to sit in the box seat here. Has great ability and must be respected. Who Shot The Barman is second up and has won previously on a heavy track. Among the wider chances. Preferment has a horrible first up record and think this might be too tough.

One For Exotics: None

Prediction: 8-3-2-1

Verdict: Prized Icon

Quaddie: 3 8

R8 Tattersalls Club Tramway Stks 1400m

Le Romain is second up for Kris Lees and hasn’t missed the quinella at this track or distance. Really rate his ability and has won on a heavy track before. Dibayani put in a great performance last start and loses a bunch of weight off that. He’s won at the track before but yet to score on a heavy track from two runs (second and third). A talented horse who must be respected.Sadler’s Lake is up in class but drops a few kilo’s. Great second up stats and doesn’t seem to have an issue on a heavy track. Right in this race. Happy Clapper is first up and finished strongly last time out before being spelled. Great soft track record but unproven on heavy. Easier class here and will have it’s chance. Gust Of Wind had a great run of form last prep finishing well in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. First up here and has won first up before. A heavy track is an unknown but you’d think he’s a sneaky chance for a boilover!

One For Exotics: Gust Of Wind

Prediction: 1-9-5-6

Verdict: Le Romain

Quaddie: 1 2 5 6 9

R9 James Boag’s Concorde Stakes 1000m

Japonisme resumes after running third in the BTC Cup earlier this year. Has some serious ability this one and usually runs well first up. Has won on a heavy track in the past. Federal also resumes after his second in the QTC Cup earlier this year. Loves this track and has won on his only start on a heavy track. A big chance. Craftiness has some serious first up stats which must be respected. Yet to run on a heavy track but soft track runs have been very good, and also loves this distance. A good chance at nice odds. Hidden Pearl is nicely weighted after winning easily last outing. Has some ability but doesn’t like a heavy track and think that others in this race are just simply better.

One For Exotics: Craftiness

Prediction: 1-5-7-10

Verdict: Japonisme

Quaddie: 1 5 7

 

Moonee Valley // 3rd September

Moonee Valley this week for Cox Plate qualifier raceday. A relatively quiet week last Saturday with 1 collect from 4 bets, we did nab the quaddie though. Hard to predict what the track condition might be on Saturday but with potential showers forecasted between now (Thursday) and the weekend it could get a downgrade to no worse than a Soft 5/ 6.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $200,000 McEwen Stakes (Race 5) and the $250,000 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Race 8).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Going for Dulverton here provided the track has some give in it. She drew off the track and finished hard to just go down to Bonnie Belle. Has a good record over the mile, she should be in the finish here with the weight drop. Kaniana will take some tossing. She responded well to hard riding to score by 2 lengths over this distance last start. She’s drawn well and gets the senior rider on board. Baby Don’t Cry has her first run at the mile. Her recent efforts have indicated she wants the extra distance but this is a class rise. Choice gets the blinkers back on today. She was disappointing last time but was jumping from 1200 to 1600 second up. Forgive. Takeover might lead and prove hard to catch, is the blowout at $17.

One for exotics: Bonnie Belle ($12)

Race prediction: 7-9-3-2

Verdict: Pass.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1600m

Raw Impulse is perfectly weighted to kick off his campaign with a win. He won over 1500 here first up last prep and won his next two on the trot at short odds before getting too far back at Randwick. Sadaqa looks to be up on the pace. He loves this track and distance and is usually thereabouts. Last chance today. Master Zephyr resumed and ran well from midfield. He was never a threat on that occasion and i think he might need this run also but look for him to be running on. Shamkiyr brings strong Hong Kong form but is 16 months fresh. Observational isn’t hopeless.

One for exotics: Sadaqa ($14)

Race prediction: 5-9-7-6

Verdict: Raw Impulse W@2.20.

Race 3 3YO Open Handicap 1514m

Not interested in this race from a punting perspective. Hey Doc has the class and resumed for a win over 1200. Has performed well down the straight second up. Lord Macau should be up on the speed and looks ready for this trip. Benny Goes Berzerk will be hitting the line hard, runs well on rain affected tracks. Larrikin can go on with it after his win last time at big odds. Rocketeer looks smart and has returned in good fashion.

One for exotics: Larrikin ($34)

Race prediction: 4-12-1-3

Verdict: Pass.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1514m

Wheatsheaf Flyer was an eye catcher when second up finishing hard behind Prince of Brooklyn. Won third up last prep over the mile on a wet track, as long as the bias isn’t dead against he’s right in this. Mr Individual has drawn wide and there looks to be a bit of pace in this race. 1400 seems to be his pet distance and although he isn’t without claims there doesn’t seem to be much value at 4.40. Zahspeed has a poor first up record but was only 1.6L away first up last preparation over this track and distance. Will be including at big odds. Vostok never got a crack at them last start and is on the quick backup here. Was comfortably held by Mr Individual when they met last time. Moss n Dale beat the flying Grand Dreamer last start easily. You can line him up through his effort prior behind Prince of Brooklyn, he looks under the odds here despite the good draw.

One for exotics: Wheatsheaf Flyer ($14)

Race prediction: 11-2-1-10

Verdict: Wheatsheaf Flyer E.W@14:4.40.

Race 5 McEwen Stakes (G2) 1000m

Think Heatherly will be one to follow this preparation. Ran over this track and distance first up beating a similar quality field. She tired late but still held on, should be fitter second up. Drawn wide but hoping she can get the lead or take a sit. Wild Rain was super first up. She’s had plenty of time to recover and comes into this event 7 weeks fresh. Flies over 1000 metres and is 2 from 4 at the valley. Sheidel has trialled well and is always around the mark. She’s placed 9 from 11 (winning 6) over 1000 metres and was slightly unlucky here fresh last prep. Those are the 3 main chances for mine but others with exotics claims are O’Malley and Furnaces. Keen to see the return of Chloe In Paris also.

One for exotics: O’Malley ($15)

Race prediction: 8-6-5-4

Verdict: Heatherly W@2.80

Race 6 3YO Atlantic Jewel Stakes 1200m

Sebring Dream has had two career starts for a win and a second behind I Am a Star (Who beat the majority of these last start) where she finished strongly. The distance suits, if she’s right she can win this first up. Whispering Brook was the star 2YO in WA last year. If she’s come on at all she should be very hard to run down. Athena Lass stuck on well last start when a month between runs in a race where there was a run-on bias. She’s another that can rail well if she gets the lead and be tough to catch in the short straight. Oregon’s Day boasts a win over Highland Beat. That form seems good enough for this. Oliver sticks on Merriest. She started 1.80 favourite behind I Am a Star and Sebring Dream before failing and being spelled. She didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up but unsure if she would’ve been in the finish. Not risking.

One for exotics: Oregon’s Day ($14)

Race prediction: 9-1-13-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16

Verdict: Pass.

Race 7 SAJ Fruit Supply Stakes 1200m

Sticking with the Regal Roller form and putting Voodoo Lad on top again. He overraced as usual but was still far too good last start. Jungle Edge has twice ran very well since franking the form. Drawn well. I think Rich Jack should’ve won last start. He was clearly the best of the on pacers last start and if he got clear a fraction earlier he may well have won. Drawn well. Le Bonsir was very wide last start and just tired late. He gets significant weight relief and does look over the odds at 41$. Fast ’n’ Rocking has drawn the widest barrier here, looking for a more positive ride with the Jockey change. Fast Cash will get back a long way from the barrier as well, think Fast ’n’ Rocking is a better swooper if the bias allows.

One for exotics: Rich Jack ($34)

Race prediction: 3-13-7-1

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14

Verdict: Pass.

Race 8 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (G2) 1600m

Going for one at odds in The Cleaner here. He didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up after the pace was hot and his win over this track and distance second up last prep was very impressive. He looks the likely leader with no Lord of the Sky, has won 4 from 9 second up and boasts a 53% win rate at the mile. Miss Rose De Lago walked in over this track and distance last preparation. She should be hard to beat again after a strong first up win despite the wide draw. Suavito got too far back first up. She’s another who races very well second up and i’m willing to give her another chance. Jameka ran well first up when i thought she might want further. Like her record here. The United States has won first up at Moonee Valley over 1500 metres in weaker company. He’s on track for a melbourne cup and I think he might just need this run, i’ll still be including him. Tosen Stardom has never won below 1800. Cant have him as favourite in this race despite his strong Japanese form.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($16)

Race prediction: 3-12-10-14

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 10, 12, 14

Verdict: The Cleaner E.W@16:5.50

Race 9 Open Handicap 2040m

O’Lonera looks the one to beat again. He’s up in class but down in the weights. Drawn wide but with even luck in running he should lead them all the way. Swacadelic finished off nicely first up at an unsuitable distance. He loves the tight track at the Valley and looks a good chance at odds here. Pin Your Hopes didn’t have the easiest run last start when leading. Would like to see him take a sit here; looks ready to win now his third start at 2000. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record over 2000 metres, i don’t like the fact he’s unplaced from two runs here. Will be hard to hold out from the good draw. Aloft is the big unknown. First run in over a yearend Ollie gets the steer. Might want further though. Bold Sniper had the run and won well last start, will be tough from the very wide draw.

One for exotics: Swacadelic ($21)

Race prediction: 13-5-6-2

Quaddie selections: 5, 6, 13

Verdict: Pass.