Moonee Valley // 3rd September

Moonee Valley this week for Cox Plate qualifier raceday. A relatively quiet week last Saturday with 1 collect from 4 bets, we did nab the quaddie though. Hard to predict what the track condition might be on Saturday but with potential showers forecasted between now (Thursday) and the weekend it could get a downgrade to no worse than a Soft 5/ 6.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $200,000 McEwen Stakes (Race 5) and the $250,000 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Race 8).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Going for Dulverton here provided the track has some give in it. She drew off the track and finished hard to just go down to Bonnie Belle. Has a good record over the mile, she should be in the finish here with the weight drop. Kaniana will take some tossing. She responded well to hard riding to score by 2 lengths over this distance last start. She’s drawn well and gets the senior rider on board. Baby Don’t Cry has her first run at the mile. Her recent efforts have indicated she wants the extra distance but this is a class rise. Choice gets the blinkers back on today. She was disappointing last time but was jumping from 1200 to 1600 second up. Forgive. Takeover might lead and prove hard to catch, is the blowout at $17.

One for exotics: Bonnie Belle ($12)

Race prediction: 7-9-3-2

Verdict: Pass.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1600m

Raw Impulse is perfectly weighted to kick off his campaign with a win. He won over 1500 here first up last prep and won his next two on the trot at short odds before getting too far back at Randwick. Sadaqa looks to be up on the pace. He loves this track and distance and is usually thereabouts. Last chance today. Master Zephyr resumed and ran well from midfield. He was never a threat on that occasion and i think he might need this run also but look for him to be running on. Shamkiyr brings strong Hong Kong form but is 16 months fresh. Observational isn’t hopeless.

One for exotics: Sadaqa ($14)

Race prediction: 5-9-7-6

Verdict: Raw Impulse W@2.20.

Race 3 3YO Open Handicap 1514m

Not interested in this race from a punting perspective. Hey Doc has the class and resumed for a win over 1200. Has performed well down the straight second up. Lord Macau should be up on the speed and looks ready for this trip. Benny Goes Berzerk will be hitting the line hard, runs well on rain affected tracks. Larrikin can go on with it after his win last time at big odds. Rocketeer looks smart and has returned in good fashion.

One for exotics: Larrikin ($34)

Race prediction: 4-12-1-3

Verdict: Pass.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1514m

Wheatsheaf Flyer was an eye catcher when second up finishing hard behind Prince of Brooklyn. Won third up last prep over the mile on a wet track, as long as the bias isn’t dead against he’s right in this. Mr Individual has drawn wide and there looks to be a bit of pace in this race. 1400 seems to be his pet distance and although he isn’t without claims there doesn’t seem to be much value at 4.40. Zahspeed has a poor first up record but was only 1.6L away first up last preparation over this track and distance. Will be including at big odds. Vostok never got a crack at them last start and is on the quick backup here. Was comfortably held by Mr Individual when they met last time. Moss n Dale beat the flying Grand Dreamer last start easily. You can line him up through his effort prior behind Prince of Brooklyn, he looks under the odds here despite the good draw.

One for exotics: Wheatsheaf Flyer ($14)

Race prediction: 11-2-1-10

Verdict: Wheatsheaf Flyer E.W@14:4.40.

Race 5 McEwen Stakes (G2) 1000m

Think Heatherly will be one to follow this preparation. Ran over this track and distance first up beating a similar quality field. She tired late but still held on, should be fitter second up. Drawn wide but hoping she can get the lead or take a sit. Wild Rain was super first up. She’s had plenty of time to recover and comes into this event 7 weeks fresh. Flies over 1000 metres and is 2 from 4 at the valley. Sheidel has trialled well and is always around the mark. She’s placed 9 from 11 (winning 6) over 1000 metres and was slightly unlucky here fresh last prep. Those are the 3 main chances for mine but others with exotics claims are O’Malley and Furnaces. Keen to see the return of Chloe In Paris also.

One for exotics: O’Malley ($15)

Race prediction: 8-6-5-4

Verdict: Heatherly W@2.80

Race 6 3YO Atlantic Jewel Stakes 1200m

Sebring Dream has had two career starts for a win and a second behind I Am a Star (Who beat the majority of these last start) where she finished strongly. The distance suits, if she’s right she can win this first up. Whispering Brook was the star 2YO in WA last year. If she’s come on at all she should be very hard to run down. Athena Lass stuck on well last start when a month between runs in a race where there was a run-on bias. She’s another that can rail well if she gets the lead and be tough to catch in the short straight. Oregon’s Day boasts a win over Highland Beat. That form seems good enough for this. Oliver sticks on Merriest. She started 1.80 favourite behind I Am a Star and Sebring Dream before failing and being spelled. She didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up but unsure if she would’ve been in the finish. Not risking.

One for exotics: Oregon’s Day ($14)

Race prediction: 9-1-13-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16

Verdict: Pass.

Race 7 SAJ Fruit Supply Stakes 1200m

Sticking with the Regal Roller form and putting Voodoo Lad on top again. He overraced as usual but was still far too good last start. Jungle Edge has twice ran very well since franking the form. Drawn well. I think Rich Jack should’ve won last start. He was clearly the best of the on pacers last start and if he got clear a fraction earlier he may well have won. Drawn well. Le Bonsir was very wide last start and just tired late. He gets significant weight relief and does look over the odds at 41$. Fast ’n’ Rocking has drawn the widest barrier here, looking for a more positive ride with the Jockey change. Fast Cash will get back a long way from the barrier as well, think Fast ’n’ Rocking is a better swooper if the bias allows.

One for exotics: Rich Jack ($34)

Race prediction: 3-13-7-1

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14

Verdict: Pass.

Race 8 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (G2) 1600m

Going for one at odds in The Cleaner here. He didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up after the pace was hot and his win over this track and distance second up last prep was very impressive. He looks the likely leader with no Lord of the Sky, has won 4 from 9 second up and boasts a 53% win rate at the mile. Miss Rose De Lago walked in over this track and distance last preparation. She should be hard to beat again after a strong first up win despite the wide draw. Suavito got too far back first up. She’s another who races very well second up and i’m willing to give her another chance. Jameka ran well first up when i thought she might want further. Like her record here. The United States has won first up at Moonee Valley over 1500 metres in weaker company. He’s on track for a melbourne cup and I think he might just need this run, i’ll still be including him. Tosen Stardom has never won below 1800. Cant have him as favourite in this race despite his strong Japanese form.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($16)

Race prediction: 3-12-10-14

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 10, 12, 14

Verdict: The Cleaner E.W@16:5.50

Race 9 Open Handicap 2040m

O’Lonera looks the one to beat again. He’s up in class but down in the weights. Drawn wide but with even luck in running he should lead them all the way. Swacadelic finished off nicely first up at an unsuitable distance. He loves the tight track at the Valley and looks a good chance at odds here. Pin Your Hopes didn’t have the easiest run last start when leading. Would like to see him take a sit here; looks ready to win now his third start at 2000. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record over 2000 metres, i don’t like the fact he’s unplaced from two runs here. Will be hard to hold out from the good draw. Aloft is the big unknown. First run in over a yearend Ollie gets the steer. Might want further though. Bold Sniper had the run and won well last start, will be tough from the very wide draw.

One for exotics: Swacadelic ($21)

Race prediction: 13-5-6-2

Quaddie selections: 5, 6, 13

Verdict: Pass.

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