Randwick // 3rd September

Saturday takes us to Randwick for the featured running of the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and Tramway Stakes (1400m). Winx returns and is a current hot favourite to take out the Chelmsford Stakes.

There looks to be a fair bit of rain around Sydney this week and we could see the track downgraded from its current Soft rating to Heavy. Wet track form will be important for this meeting.

457012-randwick-grandstand

Photo: The Randwick Grandstand

R1 Schweppes (bm80) 1600m

Signposted has won his last three starts, all of which on wet tracks. Bolted home by 4 lengths last start on a heavy track and loses weight here. Will look to lead the entire way and will be hard to beat. So Willie found the line very nicely last time out, however the trip his is 400m shorter. Usually runs well at this distance and loves a really wet track. Should be competitive with Bowman on board and down in weight. I think Zayam is a good each way chance here. He obviously wasn’t right last start, however he has shown some great potential at this track on wet ground in the past, and wouldn’t be surprised if he caused an upset here. Bolord enjoys this distance and has won second up in the past. Was promising last start on soft ground and found the line well. Salthouse looks to be a promising, lightly raced gelding, however is unproven on a wet track and hence I’m inclined to leave him out.

One For Exotics: Zayam

Prediction: 1-5-2-7

Verdict: Signposted

R2 Tab Supports Jockey Trust-bm78 2000m

Dubaiinstyle has gone 2 in a row now and looking for three! Loves the wet tracks and and should get a nice sit from barrier four. One of the key players here but think that the increase in weight may catch up with him here. Dowdstown Charlie kicked well last time out to finish a close second behind Paragon. Loves wet tracks and drops 2 kilo’s here. Will give this a big shake up. Lanciato has good soft track stats, and ran on okay last time out. Loses some weight which will help but yet to win over 1600m an issue. Rainbow Park ran well last start to finish second at nice odds. Only win on a soft track at this distance, and loses 3kg here. Could be a sneaky outside chance. Zero To Ten and Dure the next best at each way odds.

One For Exotics: Dowdstown Charlie

Prediction: 6-4-5-10

Verdict: Dowdstown Charlie

R3 Daily Telegraph Ming Dynasty 1400m

 

High Mist found the line well last start after finding himself back in the field. Has won and placed on a soft track before and the wet looks to help him here. Won first up last prep and this looks achievable. Skylight Glow has won on soft ground before and will be fresh. Will carry the most weight but enjoys sitting on the pace. Not out of it. Taj Mahal will be fitter for last start, and the increase in distance will help. Has potential and will look to impress here. Only query is no form on wet tracks. Swear scored a very nice victory earlier this year and is yet to race since then. Was a highly valued colt at sale and will want to go on with it here. Keep very handy.

One For Exotics: Skylight Glow

Prediction: 4-1-2-3

Verdict: High Mist

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Galaxy Warrior bolted in last outing 4.5L with 61.5kg! Loses 2.5kg on that run and should be quite dominant here. Was his first run on soft ground last time out, too. Grand Rouge has been close to a break through of late and scores a nice weight relief here. Enjoys this distance and proven on a heavy track, keep handy! Squidensquizz has won more than once on a wet track and has also won at the distance. Wasn’t too far behind them last outing and also loses some weight. A good each way chance. Luxury likes a soft track however is yet to place at the distance. Railed nicely last outing to finish well, and loses weight on that here. Wider chances are Trying, No When To Hold Em, and Assurity.

One For Exotics: Grand Rouge

Prediction: 1-11-4-2

Verdict: Galaxy Warrior

R5 The Mostyn Copper Group (bm92) 1400m

Tsaritsa is a very good horse. Was absolutely flying last prep, and only stumbled when drawn inside at Eagle Farm, on a day where the track near the rail was horrendous. Bags of potential and really like her, she should be right up there. Burning Passion fell narrowly last outing, where he held 5.5kg more than he does here. The track was fairly disastrous that day too so there are a few excuses for him. The drop in weight will help a lot, as well as the wet track where his best form lies. Look for him to be just behind the leading pack and to be swooping late. Syper Tycoon is shooting for 5 in a row here! Has been flying on the soft tracks in Sydney and dropping 2kg on last start will definitely help. Step up in class but this isn’t out of the question. Torgersen has some form behind Syper Tycoon and gets a bit of weight swing on him here. Will be tough, but with some luck he could sneak home. Testashadow and Zin Zan Eddie the next best.

One For Exotics: Super Tycoon

Prediction: 5-9-6-7

Verdict: Tsaritsa

R6 Fitzy & Wippa’s Fast & Furious 1200m

I Am A Star was a huge winner last outing, beating the highly fancied Leotie who went on to win last weekend. Looks to be the most talented horse in this race. One of the best chances of the day. Get on. Honesty Prevails was only 3 lengths behind them in the Golden Slipper. This is her first race since then and the jury will be out, but definitely in the mix! Awoke looks a horse who really enjoys a rain affected track. 2 from two in her short career and has bags of potential. Trialled well on a heavy track in the past and is amongst the good chances here. Global Glamour won her only start at Kembla Grange on a heavy track by 6.3L! Good signs for her on todays bogged track. Has trialled very well since then and this looks a realistic hope. Foxplay is another one who has shown potential. She won a 2YO Handicap on a soft track a couple back but yet to run on heavy. Keep safe. For wider exotics include Rather Sweet. She won her maiden on a wet track last time out, and the trial prior to that she won on a heavy track by nearly 3 lengths.

One For Exotics: Honesty Prevails

Prediction: 1-12-2-8

Verdict: I Am A Star

Quaddie: 1 2 7 8 12

R7 Tatts Club Chelmsford Stakes 1600m

Winx has been scratched! The champ mare won’t run here which leaves the door open for a few others here. Prized Icon showed glimpses of ability as a 2YO and now resumes a year older. He was good last outing running on with a big weight, and now finds himself 10.5kg to run 8.5kg lighter than any other competitor! You’d think he’d be too good with that advantage. Hartnell is placed both runs on a heavy track and looks to be the only threat. He loves it second up and will look to sit in the box seat here. Has great ability and must be respected. Who Shot The Barman is second up and has won previously on a heavy track. Among the wider chances. Preferment has a horrible first up record and think this might be too tough.

One For Exotics: None

Prediction: 8-3-2-1

Verdict: Prized Icon

Quaddie: 3 8

R8 Tattersalls Club Tramway Stks 1400m

Le Romain is second up for Kris Lees and hasn’t missed the quinella at this track or distance. Really rate his ability and has won on a heavy track before. Dibayani put in a great performance last start and loses a bunch of weight off that. He’s won at the track before but yet to score on a heavy track from two runs (second and third). A talented horse who must be respected.Sadler’s Lake is up in class but drops a few kilo’s. Great second up stats and doesn’t seem to have an issue on a heavy track. Right in this race. Happy Clapper is first up and finished strongly last time out before being spelled. Great soft track record but unproven on heavy. Easier class here and will have it’s chance. Gust Of Wind had a great run of form last prep finishing well in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. First up here and has won first up before. A heavy track is an unknown but you’d think he’s a sneaky chance for a boilover!

One For Exotics: Gust Of Wind

Prediction: 1-9-5-6

Verdict: Le Romain

Quaddie: 1 2 5 6 9

R9 James Boag’s Concorde Stakes 1000m

Japonisme resumes after running third in the BTC Cup earlier this year. Has some serious ability this one and usually runs well first up. Has won on a heavy track in the past. Federal also resumes after his second in the QTC Cup earlier this year. Loves this track and has won on his only start on a heavy track. A big chance. Craftiness has some serious first up stats which must be respected. Yet to run on a heavy track but soft track runs have been very good, and also loves this distance. A good chance at nice odds. Hidden Pearl is nicely weighted after winning easily last outing. Has some ability but doesn’t like a heavy track and think that others in this race are just simply better.

One For Exotics: Craftiness

Prediction: 1-5-7-10

Verdict: Japonisme

Quaddie: 1 5 7

 

Moonee Valley // 3rd September

Moonee Valley this week for Cox Plate qualifier raceday. A relatively quiet week last Saturday with 1 collect from 4 bets, we did nab the quaddie though. Hard to predict what the track condition might be on Saturday but with potential showers forecasted between now (Thursday) and the weekend it could get a downgrade to no worse than a Soft 5/ 6.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $200,000 McEwen Stakes (Race 5) and the $250,000 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Race 8).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Going for Dulverton here provided the track has some give in it. She drew off the track and finished hard to just go down to Bonnie Belle. Has a good record over the mile, she should be in the finish here with the weight drop. Kaniana will take some tossing. She responded well to hard riding to score by 2 lengths over this distance last start. She’s drawn well and gets the senior rider on board. Baby Don’t Cry has her first run at the mile. Her recent efforts have indicated she wants the extra distance but this is a class rise. Choice gets the blinkers back on today. She was disappointing last time but was jumping from 1200 to 1600 second up. Forgive. Takeover might lead and prove hard to catch, is the blowout at $17.

One for exotics: Bonnie Belle ($12)

Race prediction: 7-9-3-2

Verdict: Pass.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1600m

Raw Impulse is perfectly weighted to kick off his campaign with a win. He won over 1500 here first up last prep and won his next two on the trot at short odds before getting too far back at Randwick. Sadaqa looks to be up on the pace. He loves this track and distance and is usually thereabouts. Last chance today. Master Zephyr resumed and ran well from midfield. He was never a threat on that occasion and i think he might need this run also but look for him to be running on. Shamkiyr brings strong Hong Kong form but is 16 months fresh. Observational isn’t hopeless.

One for exotics: Sadaqa ($14)

Race prediction: 5-9-7-6

Verdict: Raw Impulse W@2.20.

Race 3 3YO Open Handicap 1514m

Not interested in this race from a punting perspective. Hey Doc has the class and resumed for a win over 1200. Has performed well down the straight second up. Lord Macau should be up on the speed and looks ready for this trip. Benny Goes Berzerk will be hitting the line hard, runs well on rain affected tracks. Larrikin can go on with it after his win last time at big odds. Rocketeer looks smart and has returned in good fashion.

One for exotics: Larrikin ($34)

Race prediction: 4-12-1-3

Verdict: Pass.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1514m

Wheatsheaf Flyer was an eye catcher when second up finishing hard behind Prince of Brooklyn. Won third up last prep over the mile on a wet track, as long as the bias isn’t dead against he’s right in this. Mr Individual has drawn wide and there looks to be a bit of pace in this race. 1400 seems to be his pet distance and although he isn’t without claims there doesn’t seem to be much value at 4.40. Zahspeed has a poor first up record but was only 1.6L away first up last preparation over this track and distance. Will be including at big odds. Vostok never got a crack at them last start and is on the quick backup here. Was comfortably held by Mr Individual when they met last time. Moss n Dale beat the flying Grand Dreamer last start easily. You can line him up through his effort prior behind Prince of Brooklyn, he looks under the odds here despite the good draw.

One for exotics: Wheatsheaf Flyer ($14)

Race prediction: 11-2-1-10

Verdict: Wheatsheaf Flyer E.W@14:4.40.

Race 5 McEwen Stakes (G2) 1000m

Think Heatherly will be one to follow this preparation. Ran over this track and distance first up beating a similar quality field. She tired late but still held on, should be fitter second up. Drawn wide but hoping she can get the lead or take a sit. Wild Rain was super first up. She’s had plenty of time to recover and comes into this event 7 weeks fresh. Flies over 1000 metres and is 2 from 4 at the valley. Sheidel has trialled well and is always around the mark. She’s placed 9 from 11 (winning 6) over 1000 metres and was slightly unlucky here fresh last prep. Those are the 3 main chances for mine but others with exotics claims are O’Malley and Furnaces. Keen to see the return of Chloe In Paris also.

One for exotics: O’Malley ($15)

Race prediction: 8-6-5-4

Verdict: Heatherly W@2.80

Race 6 3YO Atlantic Jewel Stakes 1200m

Sebring Dream has had two career starts for a win and a second behind I Am a Star (Who beat the majority of these last start) where she finished strongly. The distance suits, if she’s right she can win this first up. Whispering Brook was the star 2YO in WA last year. If she’s come on at all she should be very hard to run down. Athena Lass stuck on well last start when a month between runs in a race where there was a run-on bias. She’s another that can rail well if she gets the lead and be tough to catch in the short straight. Oregon’s Day boasts a win over Highland Beat. That form seems good enough for this. Oliver sticks on Merriest. She started 1.80 favourite behind I Am a Star and Sebring Dream before failing and being spelled. She didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up but unsure if she would’ve been in the finish. Not risking.

One for exotics: Oregon’s Day ($14)

Race prediction: 9-1-13-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16

Verdict: Pass.

Race 7 SAJ Fruit Supply Stakes 1200m

Sticking with the Regal Roller form and putting Voodoo Lad on top again. He overraced as usual but was still far too good last start. Jungle Edge has twice ran very well since franking the form. Drawn well. I think Rich Jack should’ve won last start. He was clearly the best of the on pacers last start and if he got clear a fraction earlier he may well have won. Drawn well. Le Bonsir was very wide last start and just tired late. He gets significant weight relief and does look over the odds at 41$. Fast ’n’ Rocking has drawn the widest barrier here, looking for a more positive ride with the Jockey change. Fast Cash will get back a long way from the barrier as well, think Fast ’n’ Rocking is a better swooper if the bias allows.

One for exotics: Rich Jack ($34)

Race prediction: 3-13-7-1

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14

Verdict: Pass.

Race 8 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (G2) 1600m

Going for one at odds in The Cleaner here. He didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up after the pace was hot and his win over this track and distance second up last prep was very impressive. He looks the likely leader with no Lord of the Sky, has won 4 from 9 second up and boasts a 53% win rate at the mile. Miss Rose De Lago walked in over this track and distance last preparation. She should be hard to beat again after a strong first up win despite the wide draw. Suavito got too far back first up. She’s another who races very well second up and i’m willing to give her another chance. Jameka ran well first up when i thought she might want further. Like her record here. The United States has won first up at Moonee Valley over 1500 metres in weaker company. He’s on track for a melbourne cup and I think he might just need this run, i’ll still be including him. Tosen Stardom has never won below 1800. Cant have him as favourite in this race despite his strong Japanese form.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($16)

Race prediction: 3-12-10-14

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 10, 12, 14

Verdict: The Cleaner E.W@16:5.50

Race 9 Open Handicap 2040m

O’Lonera looks the one to beat again. He’s up in class but down in the weights. Drawn wide but with even luck in running he should lead them all the way. Swacadelic finished off nicely first up at an unsuitable distance. He loves the tight track at the Valley and looks a good chance at odds here. Pin Your Hopes didn’t have the easiest run last start when leading. Would like to see him take a sit here; looks ready to win now his third start at 2000. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record over 2000 metres, i don’t like the fact he’s unplaced from two runs here. Will be hard to hold out from the good draw. Aloft is the big unknown. First run in over a yearend Ollie gets the steer. Might want further though. Bold Sniper had the run and won well last start, will be tough from the very wide draw.

One for exotics: Swacadelic ($21)

Race prediction: 13-5-6-2

Quaddie selections: 5, 6, 13

Verdict: Pass.

Caulfield // August 27th

The track is currently rated a Soft 5. With clear weather between now (Thursday) and Saturday we should be running in the Good range. Huge day at Caulfield with the first group 1 of the season.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the $150,000 Resimax Stakes (Race 5), the $150,000 McNeil Stakes (Race 6), the $500,000 Memsie Stakes (Race 7) and the $150,000 Cockram Stakes (Race 9).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO Fillies  Benchmark 78 1400m

Leotie looks a smart filly. Made the jump from maiden grade last start and seems as though 1400 will suit. Perfectly Safe is a winning chance but does look under the current odds available. Might get an easy lead and be hard to run down. Sebrikka does her best when her runs are well spaced. Come into this off a 7 week break and rates highly. Think her latest effort wasn’t as strong as the top pick. Hot Dipped didn’t do enough first up whereas Smart As You Think might need the run first up over 1400.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($10)

Race prediction: 3-4-2-1

Verdict: Leotie clearly the one to beat, even money looks a bit short.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1400m

Jungle Edge would be top pick had he not run yesterday. Damien Oliver gave Prince of Brooklyn a peach of a ride last start settling him much closer to the speed from the wide barrier. Most of these horses are resuming whilst he has race fitness. Should be very hard to hold out on the weight minimum. Tarquin looks a big threat first up with just 52.5 kilos. Wary this may be just a tune up . He’s Our Rokkii found his best form on the rain affected tracks last prep over further. He should be doing his best work late. Maurus creates plenty of interest, place looks best?

One for exotics: Maurus ($17)

Race prediction: 9-6-4-1

Verdict: Prince of Brooklyn to go back to back. Prince of Brooklyn W@2.70

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1400m

My Sister Lil was a bit stiff last start. Kaniana has come out of that race a winner but others have also flopped. 4:0-0-0 at the track and 8:0-2-0 at the distance are big queries but has to be included on her last two. Majestic Lass stormed home last start behind two that held their ground in city class last week. Will be better on the firmer track and up in distance. Takeover looks the best roughie at 81$. Keeps getting sent out at huge odds and is rarely far away. Wide barrier hurts but could run into a place. Gabella will be one to watch over further this spring. Antelucan is more than capable, will be watching her first up though.

One for exotics: Takeover ($81)

Race prediction: 5-11-15-2

Verdict: Will be keeping a keen eye on a few of these mares for later in spring, not keen to bet though.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1200m

Spirit or Lager looks over the odds at 26$. He has a good record second up and won well on the synthetic first up. His form around Duke of Brunswick and Fast Cash puts him right in this. Badajoz has drawn in and gets a nice weight swing on Camdus for a half length margin last start. Today looks to be his best chance for a win. Our Harmony is well placed after the 3kg claim. Has a great record at 1200. Heza Ripper should get an easy lead from barrier 1. Prefer him on wetter though. Will be risking Camdus from the wide barrier, two solid efforts at 1200 this prep though. Eager to see the return of Bon Aurum. He looked a pretty talented 3 year old late last year. The Justice League first up for Weir gets the ultimate gear change. Hard to assess.

One for exotics: Spirit or Lager ($26)

Race prediction: 5-12-9-7

Verdict: Very open race, will have something very small on Spirit or Lager. Spirit or Lager E.W@26:8.00.

Race 5 4YO+ Resimax Stakes (G3) 1100m

Miss Promiscuity is one of my personal favourites and she flies fresh. If its a slow tempo and she settles close to the speed she might be hard to reel in. She does her best work at Caulfield and over the short trips. Under The Louvre is a freak and can pull of some slick sectionals. I think he’s a lay at his current odds of 2.80 over this distance. He’ll need the tempo on and will most likely get right back from the barrier. Shiraz gets the blinkers on today and didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up. He’s got a great record second up, over this distance range and on the firmer surface. Big watch. We’ve Got This is a good fresh horse, not overly convinced he’s up to this class though. Santa Ana Lane won here fresh last prep and is my pick of the new 4 year olds. Dan Zephyr and Trevinder aren’t hopeless at big odds.

One for exotics: Shiraz ($10)

Race prediction: 13-1-2-9

Verdict: Another pretty open race. No bets.

Race 6 3YO McNeil Stakes (G3) 1200m

Awake in Grinzing only won a Sandown Lakeside maiden on debut but he came from last on the heavy track to win in impressive fashion. Defcon came from the tail over this distance to easily beat Prized Icon before a forgive run in the Slipper. Good enough if right first up. It’s hard to assess who is the horse to take out of the Vain Stakes. Highland Beat was resuming and finished well, should appreciate the extra 100 metres. Revolving Door was also resuming and was wide throughout, he stuck on well. Wazzenme is another who will run well over 1200 and gets the blinkers on today. Hardham took the rails run and looked to have his chance last start, is a genuine winning hope but can’t have him as favourite. Blue Tycoon is another big watch first up. Whilst Seaburge has to go in too off some very nice trials.

One for exotics: Awake in Grinzing ($13)

Race prediction: 10-1-3-6

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14

Verdict: Hard to have a confident bet here. Going very wide in the quaddie. No bets.

Race 7 3YO+ Memsie Stakes (G1) 1400m

Black Heart Bart does look the one to beat here. He thrives at this distance range and has drawn to get a nice run. The only query is he’s never raced first up at 1400 before. Oliver back on Lord Of The Sky is a big tick. Still not convinced he’s a 1400 metre horse though. They ran quick early and he was entitled to drop out last start but stuck on okay. Mahuta can be forgiven as he was found lame last start, would prefer him around the 10$ quote though. Not convinced Palentino loves Caulfield but the distance rise gives him claims. McEvoy is trying plenty of gear changes with Alpine Eagle today. He’s too good to ignore despite his fresh failure in May. All three of Hayes horses have minor claims.

One for exotics: Lord of the Sky ($14)

Race prediction: 2-3-8-11

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 8, 11

Verdict: Backing Black Heart Bart for the win. Black Heart Bart W@3.10

Race 8 Heatherlie Stakes (Listed) 1700m

Magnapal won this race last year. He closed very well last start and was a touch unlucky not to finish closer. Should relish every bit of 1700 metres and is the one to beat. Tom Melbourne is twice a winner first up. He was super impressive his first two runs last prep before going amiss in the Mornington Cup. Good hope. Provocative is the unknown factor. She was huge in the Queensland Oaks, I’m not overly convinced how strong that race was and she’s never won in this class over this distance before. Second Bullet can run a race here with 54 on his back. Has beaten Killarney Kid over 2000. Longeron is 7 weeks between runs. I think he might just need this one but he has a fantastic record here.

One for exotics: Second Bullet ($10)

Race prediction: 4-3-11-7

Quaddie selections: 3, 4, 7, 14

Verdict: Happy to have a bet on Magnapal after his effort in the PB Lawrence. Magnapal W@7.50

Race 9 4YO+ Mares Cockram Stakes (G3) 1200m

Choose is twice a winner fresh and this is her best distance. Crossed the line with Azkadellia over 1200 last preparation. Ocean Embers looks ready for this class now, she’s going to need a lot of luck from the barrier but is absolutely flying this prep. Telopea is as genuine as they come, she looked good in her win before the break. Last go at 1200 she came from last to nab second. Kayjay’s Joy was massive first up last preparation. She’s drawn wide and is another who will need luck but can’t be ignored. Mossin Around lost momentum at a key stage first up, hard to know if she would’ve challenged the winner but she definitely would’ve been a lot closer. Suspect there isn’t much between Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court. The latter ticks plenty of boxes whilst the former is very consistent.

One for exotics: Choose ($14)

Race prediction: 5, 13, 9, 8

Quaddie selections: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13

Verdict: Choose looks a value hope at big odds in a very open race. No bets.

Rosehill // 27th August

Horse-Star_Turn-94849-636x424

Photo: Star Turn wins the 2016 San Domenico Stakes last weekend.

Great card today for the featured Run To The Rose at Rosehill. Star Turn should start favourite after knocking down the door of the San Domenico stakes last weekend.

The track looks to be rated a heavy one with a bit of mid week rain.

R1 #theraces (bm72) 2000m

Birds Of Tokyo bolted in by 6.3L last start, beating Firebird Flyer. First start at the distance which could be an issue and recent trial wasn’t convincing. Firebird Flyer finished quite a distance back behind Birds Of Tokyo two starts back, however she gets a nice weight turn around here. An honest horse who loves a wet track. Northern Journey has a great heavy track record. Scored a great win last time out and has previously won at the distance. My Guiliano beat Firebird Flyer in his maiden win, and probably didn’t enjoy the short distance prior to that. Big query here is the heavy track, yet to place on heavy but has run well on soft in the past. One that could cause an upset is Erika. Was priced well last start in the Birds Of Tokyo race but didn’t fire. Forgive that run; she usually loves a wet track!

One For Exotics: Erika

Prediction: 2-3-1-5

Verdict: Firebird Flyer W @$3.80

R2 Strassmeir (bm82) 1500m

Extensible cruised home to victory for us two weeks ago, winning by 1.8L over Labdien. Loses half a kilo here and looks a good thing! Only query is the heavy track, but has shown ability on soft. Pirate Ben is a horse that has good ability. Was very dominant towards the back end of last prep, however yet to find any form in this one with big weights. Loses 5.5kg here and will be a key challenger. Shards is a horse with great ability! Has been contesting some big races this year with no real luck. Drops back to a bm82, however the downside of that is the top weight. Weight may make it too tough. Antonio Guiseppe had his first run on a heavy track last time out and won by 1.3L. Loses 5kg on that here which will put him into the race. Rhodin Drive a sneaky chance at long odds.

One For Exotics: Pirate Ben

Prediction: 3-5-1-8

Verdict: Never jump off a good thing! Extensible W @ $2.50

R3 St Mary’s Rsl (bm70) 1400m

Evacuation looks a colt with exceptional potential. Bolted home in first competitive start, and then did the same in two trials (the latter on a heavy track). Key contender for this. Cocoexcel won nicely on a heavy track at Kembla last time out. Remains at that weight here and is another with great potential. Keep handy. Savvan ran second to Cocoexcel last time out, and turns around 2kg on that run here. Could cause a shock here at some very nice odds. Swear won on debut at Hawkesbury paying a juicy $12. Only 1 run on a wet track where finished 6th of 9 behind Cocoexcel at trial. Rise in weight won’t help but don’t dismiss. Sezanne found herself on a heavy track and won her maiden last time out! Took a bit to get going but maybe has turned a corner now?

One For Exotics: Savvan

Prediction: 4-8-10-2

Verdict: Evacuation looks a star but this race is full of young horses with great potential. Might stay out of this.

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1100m

Alliterate was disappointing last start but never usually fires first up. Has been a contender in some big races of late and loses some weight here which will be handy. A good chance at big odds. Hanwritten actually beat Ball Of Muscle on debut! A good young horse with some serious potential. Unproven on heavy ground, though. Beside You has won three on the trot and was particularly impressive in the most recent. Two wins have been on soft track and should be right in this. Farah finished just behind Beside You last time out. Loses a bit of weight and plenty of upside. Keep handy! Leami Astray tried to do too much last start, attempting to lead the whole way. Could respond here but untried on a heavy track. Perizada and Moss My Name among the wider chances.

One For Exotics: Alliterate

Prediction: 11-3-12-10

Verdict: Rate Alliterate highly here at nice odds. Alliterate EW @ $13.00/$4.00

R5 On Point Locating (bm80) 1100m

Open race this! Shahrazad scored well first up and runs here 2kg lighter. Wasn’t too far back last start but that was on a dry track. Is a good horse who can give this a shake. Rose Of Man ran fairly well last start, considering she was a ranked outsider. Never really performed well on a heavy track, however the drop in class will help her here. Allez Chival is consistent as ever. Last three runs have been on a heavy track however can’t seem to find that breakthrough this prep. Drawn well in barrier 1 which should help. Alucinari has form lines around Heatherly and Palazzo Publicco. A talented mare who, if can handle the big weight, can contest this. Zoumagic has been great this prep, finishing in the quinella every start. She likes it wet, but on her only heavy start didn’t fire. Keep handy. Momma’s Snitzel the next best, however her recent trial is a bit of a worry…

One For Exotics: Allez Chival

Prediction: 7-9-4-2

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

R6 Racing Mates (bm85) 1200m

I’m a big fan of Sir Bacchus. He’s a very smart horse who has some serious finishing ability. Never lost at the track or at the distance and will be hard to stop here. Untried on a heavy track the only query. Snoopy was held up badly last time out. Barrier 3 will help him get out nicely and just sit off the leading few. He looks a great horse who should be right in this. Handfast is a good horse who has won well first up in the past. Was on fire last prep and is first up here. Hasn’t performed well on a heavy track in the past but faces lesser competition than last time out. His Majesty dashed home late last outing to score an impressive victory! Drop in grade but big rise in weight which might make this too tough. Encostanati doesn’t mind a heavy track and loses a couple of kilo’s here. One for wider exotics. Kellyville Flyer also enters the wider chances after drawing an inside barrier!

One For Exotics: Encostanati

Prediction: 4-9-6-5

Verdict: Lots of winning chances so staying out.

Quaddie Numbers: 4 5 6 7 9

R7 Mta Run To The Rose 1200m

Feature race of the day and have a look at the quality of some of these! Mediterranean took a bit to get going last time out but flew home late to narrowly miss. Loves a heavy track and think he is going to be a star. Star Turn ran a beautiful race last time in the San Domenico stakes. Got bucketloads of potential and loves a soft track. Untested on heavy? Impending won impressively on debut, however didn’t fire as a short favourite after that. Obviously has potential but yet to see any competitive run on a wet track. Keep handy. El Divino is undefeated from 2 starts (both on wet). Half brother to Winx and is a key hope who looks to be in for a massive prep. One at long odds that could cause a boil-over is Telperion. Closed very well in the Slipper (best final 400m), and then battled well for 2nd behind Yankee Rose after that.

One For Exotics: Telperion

Prediction: 9-7-4-3

Verdict: Really like Mediterranean and very tempted by the odds of Telperion. Mediterranean W @ $5.50 & Telperion EW @ $16.00/$4.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 7 9 10

R8 Premier’s Cup 1900m

Singing made his first Australian start last time out and narrowly missed on the post after sitting nicely in the box seat. That was his first run under 2000m and will be fitter for that. Encouraging run on the heavy track, too. Allergic put in a really tough run last time to score a great victory. Gets minor weight relief and has the quality, the only query is no prior heavy form. Loophole finished 1.5L behind Allergic last outing, and does have some good wet track form. Turns around 1.5kg on Allergic here which will bring him right into this race. Ruling Dynasty gets back out to a reasonable distance after moving back to 1400m last time out. Ran well first up and this isn’t beyond him. Include Magic Hurricane for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Loophole

Prediction: 6-3-7-4

Verdict: A couple of winning chances but happy to have a bet on Loophole. Loophole W @ $8.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 6 7

R9 Tab Rewards (bm78) 1350m

Chetwood loved being first up last time out. He looks to be a very promising horse with a bright future. Drawn inside and won on heavy previously, all big ticks. Cannyescent was only narrowly defeated by Chetwood last start. Earns a 1kg weight advantage on him here and will have every chance. Labdien was great last time out, although beaten 1.8L by Extensible. Drops back in grade and has every chance. We’re Sure won very nicely last time out. Doesn’t mind this track and has some good wet track form. Will go close. Conarchie fell a few lengths short to We’re Sure here but turns around a few kilo’s too. Great heavy track form and a very real chance. Earlier this year Orcym Sam wasn’t far off of Danish Twist, and being first up here could be an inclusion for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Orcym Sam

Prediction: 2-9-11-3

Verdict: Fairly open race and will sit this one out.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 7 9 11

 

Randwick // 20th August

winx

Photo: Hugh Bowman salutes on champion mare Winx

This Saturday bring NSW Racing back to Randwick, for the running of the Warwick Stakes (1400m) as the feature race of the day. Champion mare Winx returns for what should be a cracking day. 

Current weather forecasts for Saturday in Sydney show there to be no rain Thursday, Friday or Saturday. The current rating for the track is soft and this should remain the same for raceday, if not improve.

R1 Moraitis Communications (bm83) 1400m

Pindan Pearl has scored on 2 out of 4 occasions this prep. Won well two starts back with a big weight and runs 2.5kg lighter than that here. Late entry in this race and loves a soft track. Should be right up there. Super Tycoon is flying at the moment and he’s going for four in a row. Was very dominant in a huge win last start, winning by 3.8L, however he’s up 4kg here. I think he may struggle under the big weight, but he’ll be gunning to prove me wrong. Conarchie had a tough run on a heavy track last time out, but stuck on well to finish third in a fairly strong field. Has finished 1L second to Super Tycoon in the past, and turns around 4.5kg on that run here. Was a few start ago now, however he has shown he can match it with them here. Torgersen resumes after a four month spell. Hasn’t shown much at trials but never usually does. He’s running with a big weight here which won’t help but he wouldn’t shock in this grade. Shadow Lord and Pera Pera the best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Shadow Lord

Race Prediction: 6-3-7-1

Verdict: Relatively open race here but think Pindan Pearl is a great chance at current odds. Pindan Pearl W @ $4.60

R2 The Randwick Mayor’s Cup-bm72 2400m

Lie Direct blitzed the field on the bogged heavy track last time out. Has finished in the trifecta in his last five starts and looks to be a very consistent horse. Up 3.5kg which looks to be an issue, however the apprentice claim will help. Won’t be a heavy track again, which may bring others into the race. Braces finished second to him last time out, and has a slight weight advantage going in here. A very consistent gelding who will be out for revenge here. Major Major was in the same race as the top 2 last start, and was disappointing as the favourite. I think the form around that race is slightly flawed, as the track was in awful condition. Richard Of Yorke ran well for an outsider at Canterbury Park last start finishing third, however I’m not too sure why he’s so short. The rise in distance looks ideal but of the two starts in Australia, he’s yet to show any real dominance. Will enjoy this distance but may need this run too. Elusive Runner best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Braces

Race Prediction: 1-2-3-5

Verdict: Braces looks an appealing bet, meeting Lie Direct 4.5kg better than last start! Braces EW @ $8.50/$2.45

R3 Tab Highway Plate (c3) 1600m

Such an open race! Akiko Gold has been running well in her last three starts, running a close second at Rosehill last start. The mile distance looks to suit and should be hard to beat. Distinctive Look won well last start, and drops 1.5kg here. Second time in town and a soft track will help. Grand Rouge was only just behind Akiko Gold last start and looks to be improving with the increase in distance. Hooge won well last start and has been running well of late. First start in the city and could run a sneaky race at the bottom weight. A soft track will help her. Despite being the top weight, New Divide has the quality to cause an upset. Thunder Road has also shown he can match it with the major players in this race. Would be a big effort, though.

One For Exotics: Hooge

Race Prediction: 13-7-8-18

Verdict: Way too open, no bets.

R4 Primo Smallgoods Up And Coming 1300m

Divine Prophet was brilliant in the Champagne last start, finishing third to Prized Icon. He gets a 6kg weight advantage here which will put him right in this race. One of the best hopes if the track can stay relatively dry. Derryn bolted home to score his first victory at Caulfield last start. His last 200m was the fastest of the day, and has bucketloads of potential. Extra distance looks ideal. Thronum just held on last time out to deny Mediterranean victory on the line. Seems as though he thrives on a fairly wet track and will need that to win here. Pound Sterling is a good each way chance after winning first up at Warwick Farm last start. Drops 2.5kg and should be competitive. Taj Mahal the next best after winning his maiden in April. Should be better for the freshen up too.

One For Exotics: Pound Sterling

Race Prediction: 3-4-2-7

Verdict: Lots of winning chances here and will hold my money for some other races.

R5 Alpha Flight Silver Shadow 1200m

Omei Sword resumes here after three barrier trials. Was never ridden to win in those but in her second trial she looked the goods. Ran a close second behind Calliope earlier this year and gets a nice weight swing on her here. Look for her late. Thyme For Roses will look to claim the lead from a wide barrier and the pace should be on. Running very well in recent trials and has some serious talent. Calliope is a resuming Golden Slipper runner who will be looking to show what she’s capable of here. Manaya won very commandingly on debut at Scone, and prior to that won 2 trials by over 7 lengths both times. Trialled well here and could threaten. Quick Feet the next best of the lot.

One For Exotics: Thyme For Roses

Race Prediction: 5-3-1-4

Verdict: Should be hotly contested by a few but I think Thyme For Roses is a good each way bet. EW @ $12/$3.20

R6 Bob Ingham Show County Qlty 1200m

Le Romain had an outstanding run of races last prep, and usually enjoys it first up. Taught them all a lesson in the Randwick Guineas and think he might do the same here. Loves the distance and the track, will be hard to beat. Vashka scored two nice wins at Rosehill and Caulfield last prep before going back to spell. Had three trials now and performed very well in all three. Usually runs well first up and is a definite danger. Boss Lane had a decent run of races last prep. Not usually a good first up runner but is a talented horse who has proven form at this track. Think you have to include both Tycoon Tara and Mount Nebo in the chances, with the Missile form they both have. Decision Time for wider exotics with the low weight.

One For Exotics: Decision Time

Race Prediction: 5-3-6-8

Verdict: Like the odds given for Le Romain and think he’s too good first up, at the distance, and at the track. Le Romain W @ $4.60

Quaddie Numbers: 3 5 6

R7 Warwick Stakes 1400m

The superstar is back! Winx makes her return here after a four month spell. We all know how good she is, and what a special horse Waller has on his hands. She will be right up there again and should really blitz this field! Lucia Valentina bolted home in the Queen Elizabeth last start! Was a huge win and back now after four months off. Two trials with no real eye-catching performance, but did finish off well in latest. If any of them are going to beat Winx, Lucia Valentina has the best chance, jumping with the same weight! Rebel Dane the next best after run in the missile. Throw Hartnell in for fourth.

One For Exotics: Lucia Valentina

Race Prediction: 6-7-4-2

Verdict: Well Winx should be winning. Too short for mine! No bets.

Quaddie Numbers: 6 (include 7 if you think Winx can be beaten)

R8 Forum Group Toy Show Qlty 1300m

Dixie Blossoms was our top pick last week, only to be scratched in the lead up. Bucketloads of potential for this mare after a very promising beginning to her career. Will be exciting to watch! Elle Lou ran very well last start, beating home last weekend winner Extensible by a length. Drops 6kg on last start which will definitely help! Pioneering is shooting for four in a row after three very strong wins. Has the advantage in terms of fitness and drops 4.5kg here! Knit’n’Purl is having a great campaign so far. Gets minor weight relief after winning well on a heavy track here last time out. A definite each way chance. Pearls is a good chance at longer odds, dropping some weight here. Heavens Above is a good horse but think that the rise in weight will prove too much.

One For Exotics: Knit’n’Purl

Race Prediction: 6-4-5-8

Verdict: Very open race. Dixie Blossoms looks the goods but a few threats from others. Willing to have a go on her though. Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.40

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 5 6 8

R9 Sydney Markets Foundation-bm85 1000m

Haptic hasn’t run for 10 months where he came 3rd in the Blue Sapphire. Two recent trials have been positive and first up, track, and distance record is good. Is the one to beat from barrier six. Southern Legend is unbeaten in three starts for this stable and had a lengthy break now. Will be fresh and ready to fire. Barrier 13 won’t help here. Think its a race between those two. Shahrazad was disappointing as short fave last time out. Loses a kilo here and willing to forgive last run. With a bit of luck she can get them. Rose Of Man looks a small chance with such a low weight, and has been competitive in the past.

One For Exotics: Shahrazad

Race Prediction: 3-2-9-11

Verdict: Probably a race between Haptic and Southern Legend. Too tough to split them.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 9 11

 

 

 

Moonee Valley // August 20th

Just the one winner from 4 bets last week, it was a good one though getting backed from $4.00 into 2.30 and never looking in doubt. There looks to be a few showers between Wednesday and Saturday so it’s more than likely that we’ll be racing on a Soft track. It’s very important to monitor the track bias at the Valley.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $120,000 Mckenzie Stakes (Race 5) and the $120,000 Carlyon Stakes (Race 8). All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 96 2500m

There isn’t a whole lot between the top 3 in this one. Black Tomahawk looks a good thing to turn the 0.1L margin on Au Revoir. He took an eternity to get going down the straight and although the Valley isn’t ideal, the services of Craig Williams and the low weight should get him home here. Araldo Junior is impossible to catch but three runs back he absolutely brained them from the front over this distance. Did look to have every chance last start. Try Four took out a maiden hurdle last start and beat home recent city performer Oncidium Ruler prior. He’s in this. Au Revoir and Refectory for wider exotics.

One for exotics: Refectory ($13)

Race prediction: 3-2-4-1

Verdict: Black Tomahawk for the win. Black Tomahawk W@3.00

Race 2 Benchmark 78 1600m

Liked the way Archean hit the line first up. He’s won second up before and should be in the finish here. Laqha didn’t show her best first up in a race the suited the swoopers. She has a liking to the Moonee Valley circuit and has a terrific record at the mile. Dont count her out. Caprese finished alongside of Archean last time. He has a very good record here but think Archean has more upside. Grand Dreamer is another who ran well first up. Has a good overall record at the mile and should be running on. Miss Denni is another horse second up with a chance. Beat subsequent winner Kaniana home last time, usually races a bit flat second up though.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-2-9

Verdict: Archean is worth a bet at the odds. Archean W@6.00

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Benchmark 90 1200m

I’m a big fan of French Emotion. She resumes here and bolted in over this distance fresh last preparation. This looks to be her pet trip but she does look short enough in a class she’s never won before (90 grade). Refuse to Lose lead all the way last time and has a great record at 1200. She has measured up in town before. Foreign Affair comes out of the same race as Refuse to Lose and she didn’t enjoy the best run in transit last time. She’s always around the mark. Rockolicious closed well first up. She’s never won second up and might want further now. Blinkers first time and form on wet are big ticks. Vibrant Rouge can’t seem to return to the winners circle but she’s knocking on the door. A repeat of her effort last time will see her in the finish. Needs it dry. Unsure about Catch a Fire as all of her form is 3YO restricted.

One for exotics: Refuse to Lose ($15)

Race prediction: 2-6-9-3

Verdict: Looking for one to beat French Emotion but can’t find it. French Emotion W@3.20

Race 4 3YO Fillies Plate 1200m

Really tough race. Zamzam is a big watch from the Hayes and Dabernig yard. She has two wins around this circuit and does her best racing over 1200. Sweet Sherry’s one win came first up down the Flemington straight on debut. She wasn’t disgraced in 4 very tough races since including the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond. Ariaz looked smart on debut beating Motown Lil easily (Racing here). She then went to the Breeders stakes and found one better. Immediately spelled. Respecting Piccadillies on debut, whilst Moonlover is my pick of the maiden brigade.

One for exotics: Moonlover ($11)

Race prediction: 1-2-4-12

Verdict: No bets.

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Mckenzie Stakes 1200m

Going with Dam Ready here. He resumes gelded and should take great benefit already having a win around this course. Has drawn off the track though. It was hard to miss Ken’s Dream on debut at Echuca. This is a big step up but he could be something special. Verstappen also walked in on debut but on the synthetic track. Oli takes the ride. China Dream gets the blinkers on first time. He was only 2 lengths off Flying Artie at start number 2. Could be the blowout. Rampage and Throssell go in next.

One for exotics: China Dream ($21)

Race prediction: 3-8-7-4

Verdict: No bets.

Race 6 Open Handicap 2040m

Pin Your Hopes has a nice weight swing and looks to be well suited back on the rain affected track. There is a bit of a question mark over his ability to run out a strong 2000 but i’m willing to give him another go. Tooleybuc Kid looks well suited here second up. Flew home from last first up to just fall short of the flying Royal Rapture and steps up another 300 metres in distance. Only issue is he took his time to get going on that occasion and not so sure the tight Valley circuit is ideal. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record at 2000 metres. He seems to perform a bit better on top of the ground and his record at the track (2:0-0-0) is worrying. Yulong Baby will be hard to hold out with just 52.5. Bold Sniper can bounce back down in the weights. Has beaten Master of Arts this prep. Golden Mane is always thereabouts in these sorts of races. He isn’t ideally suited on the weight scale though. Prima could be the blowout. He lead all the way last start and wasn’t far away from the likes of Yulong Baby and Golden Mane back in February.

One for exotics: Tooleybuc Kid ($11)

Race prediction: 3-4-1-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 4, 8

Verdict: Giving Pin Your Hopes another chance. Pin Your Hopes W@7.00

Race 7 Open Handicap 1500m

There’s no doubting Pilote D’essai was huge first up and he looks a group performer this spring. He’s drawn the widest barrier here which will be no easy task and $2 looks a bit of a risk. Royal Rapture is in top form and there’s no reason he can’t win again. This race does look tougher than his effort last start but he is flying, just needs some cover from the barrier. Nevis is a handy frontrunner on his day and could take some catching around this track if he gets an easy lead. Onpicalo is another likely frontrunner who loves the jar out of the track. He’s drawn well and bolted in here three back. Most of these runners are stayers that will likely need the run but Pemberley has proven he can handle the short distances. He bolted in first up last prep over a rather weak field but the first up and distance form are big ticks.

One for exotics: Nevis ($11)

Race prediction: 9-3-2-5

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 5, 9, 12

Verdict: Pilote D’essai should be winning but not excited by the barrier. No bets.

Race 8 4YO+ Carlyon Stakes 1000m

Heatherly is the one to beat here. Her win in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield when leading all the way was unbelievable. She beat some good horses on that occasion and followed it up with a 0.8L 3rd to Flamberge and Fell Swoop. She’s drawn well to lead, loves the short trip and has won at Moonee Valley twice before. Wet track the only concern. Shiraz looks a huge chance here first up. He’s proven at the top level and is a genuine winner (10 from 20). Drawn to get a soft run and will be in the finish. Wild Rain trialled like a star and performed accordingly first up. The form from that race has been okay and she loves the short going. Going to need some luck from the barrier but has to be included. Beau Rada does all of his best racing at the Valley. Beat Sheidel here last prep. I’m a fan of O’Malley but this looks a bit tough first up. Wary of Williams jumping on Keen Array but he just wasn’t good enough last prep for me. Needs to lift. I’ll also be keeping a keen eye on Diamond Oasis first up for Weir.

One for exotics: Beau Rada ($26)

Race prediction: 5-1-8-10

Quaddie selections: 1, 5, 8, 10

Verdict: Shiraz looks the safe play on the wet track for those interested in betting. No bets

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1200m

This is a seriously tough way to finish the quaddie. Many of these met down the straight two weeks ago and the majority of them will race significantly different around this circuit. Fast Cash has drawn wide here which will make it very difficult. His late sectionals were fantastic first up, he’s a winner second up and likes moonee valley. If anyone can guide him to victory from 18 its Oliver. Shaf was dominant in that race first up. He doesn’t have the best stats on paper but he can’t be ignored. Rough Justice has a good record second up and at the valley. He should take great benefit from the run first up. Magicus is 4th emergency but is a must if he gains a start. Magnus Reign beat home Voodoo Lad two back before not firing a shot last time. He has a good record at Moonee Valley and is generally around the mark at 1200. I have my queries over Jungle Edge but he was pretty impressive last start.

One for exotics: Rough Justice ($13)

Race prediction: 10-6-4-18

Quaddie selections: 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 18

Verdict: No bets.

Caulfield // 13th August

We managed to get all the winners in our preview last week at Flemington, good for those exotics players! From a betting perspective, early markets gave us the edge where we managed 2 out of 5 winners to make a small profit. Lets keep the streak rolling this weekend where there is some high quality horses resuming. Weather looks good between now (Wednesday) and Saturday so we should be racing on a Good 4.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the Group 3 $150,000 KS Environmental Vain Stakes (Race 5), the Group 3 $150,000 Winslow Group Stakes (Race 6) and the Group 2 $200,000 PB Lawrence Stakes (Race 7).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 84 2000m

O’Lonera is absolutely flying at the moment. She won comfortably last time and isn’t hindered by the drop back in distance. Hard to knock Hursley. He gets a nice weight drop off a solid win last time. Has drawn well and should be in the finish. Khutulun saves her best for Caulfield; I think the 3 year old form (now 4 year olds) is a bit stronger that what she’s been racing in. Not sure if Name The Day will measure up here but his form has been very good this prep. Electric Fusion could bob up at odds back on the firmer surface.

One for exotics: Electric Fusion ($34)

Race prediction: 6-4-3-5

Verdict: Pretty tough race with 4 last start winners. O’Lonera should be very hard to beat. No bets.

Race 2 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Savannah Moon ran well last week and is suited with the drop back to the mile. She showed great fight at her start prior beating a subsequent winner and that form looks good enough for this. Choice was well backed first up and finished strongly. Jumping to the mile looks a bit of a query second up but she does do her best racing over this trip. Kaniana didn’t enjoy the best run last week losing momentum at a key stage. She should run out a strong mile. Gets in with no weight. Rustic Melody looks as though she should be competitive here. Kris Lees doesn’t bring them over very often. Throw a blanket over the rest.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-7-1

Verdict: Looks an ugly race. No bets.

Race 3 Benchmark 84 1600m

Pretty keen on Leica Day here. He’s never won second up but loves the track and loves the distance. He was desperately unlucky not to finish closer when blocked for a run at a crucial stage behind a subsequent winner Ulmann. Wide draw suits. Volcanic Ash is edging closer to a win and does his best racing here. Would like to see one more run before I jump on. Caprese is a get back and run on type who makes his own luck. Oliver jumps off and he’s never run at the mile but it looks as if it would suit. Up in class. By The Grace has a stack of weight and wants it wet. Forgive last time? Magic Consol goes in next.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 4-8-9-1

Verdict: Drink beer back Weir. Leica Day W@3.80

Race 4 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1100m

Ocean Embers was huge first up here and came from a long way back against the bias at Morphettville in the lightning stakes. She gets in on the minimum and should appreciate the extra 50 metres. Mossin Around boasts a first up win over Tsarita. Has some classy 3YO form but monitor the betting. Atmospherical was given every possible chance with a dream ride last time. The form from that race has been franked and she has a great second up record. Chiavari is six weeks between runs. She’s flying this prep and looks a winning chance. Wants it wetter though. Cana looks the best roughie for multiples. Impossible to line up the Sydneysiders Glenbawn Dame and Awasita, but their interstate form has been solid.

One for exotics: Cana ($16)

Race prediction: 8-6-1-5

Verdict: Ocean Embers to bounce back. Ocean Embers W@4.00

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Group 3 1100m

Highland Beat looks ready to produce on his return after a nice trial. Never won here but rarely far away. Artie Dee Two won a solid race at the Valley two months ago. He should appreciate the freshen up. Russian Revolution looks to be a promising colt, unproven at this level though and $2.30? Valliano won a handy race here fresh last prep. He’s more than capable of taking this one out. Power Trip isn’t hopeless at big odds, Wazzenme goes in next.

One for exotics: Highland Beat ($10)

Race prediction: 4-6-5-1

Verdict: Wide open race for the new 3 year olds. No bets.

Race 6 3YO Fillies Group 3 1100m

Merriest won impressively over this track and trip on debut before flopping down the straight. Keen to see her around a bend again. Concealer ran a huge race in the blue diamond prelude fresh last prep. Look for her to be storming home late. Hot Dipped looks the best roughie. She’s trialled well and was well backed in a group 2 at Flemington before not running up to expectations. Immediately spelled. Wary of Conscious. She should take great improvement from her one run last prep. Modern Wonder is another who has to be included, does look under the odds at $5.50 though. Sword of Light looks to be just a fresh performer, has to go in on her first up effort though.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($21)

Race prediction: 11-1-5-13

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13

Verdict: Might have a very small each way bet on Hot Dipped in another open race. Hot Dipped E.W@21:6.00

Race 7 3YO+ PB Lawrence Stakes Group 2 1400m

The feature of the day and i’m leaning towards Suavito. She flies first up and has won her last 3 fresh over this track and distance. The firm track is a big tick and her form around Lucky Hussler and Turn Me Loose looks more than good enough for this. Mahuta looks the biggest danger. Weir said he’d need the run first up and he ran well over an unsuitable distance after being wide throughout. He’s unbeaten over 1400 and has drawn to get the run of the race. Miss Rose de Lago does her best racing here. Oliver has chosen her over Suavito and Lord of the Sky, that may be an indication of how she’s going. The Cleaner was just edged out in this race last year. This looks to be a stronger version of the race but i’m keen to see if Gelagotis has got him back to peak condition. Smokin’ Joey looks to have come back in good order. Could be the blow out. Entirely Platinum boasts a 0.1L second fresh to Boban over this trip, more than good enough if right. Lord of the Sky is a freak on his day, the throat operation seems to have worked but i don’t think 1400 is his go. Jameka for wider exotics.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($10)

Race prediction: 12-11-14-2

Quaddie selections: 2, 11, 12, 14

Verdict: Looks a great edition of the PB Lawrence stakes. Suavito to make it 4 on the trot fresh. Suavito W@6.00.

Race 8 4YO+ Regal Roller Stakes 1200m

Voodoo Lad has started favourite at every one of his 13 starts and has never missed the trifecta. He was throwing his head around down the straight at his previous two and i’m keen to see him around a bend again. Fast ’n’ Rocking’s racing pattern requires the right tempo and a bit of luck (as seen by 5 wins from 41 starts). He’s got 60kg here and although he’s clearly the class of the field I can’t see any value at $3. Girl Guide was given absolutely no hope by Williams first up. Hopefully she settles a bit closer from gate one, 11$ was a steal when markets opened. Snoopy resumes a gelding and is unbeaten fresh. Big watch. Nautical won first up off a similar break last time beating home Odyssey Moon. Think she might find these a bit too slick. This looks to be a tune up for Palentino. Back him in a few starts time.

One for exotics: Girl Guide ($11)

Race prediction: 5-1-3-9

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 5

Verdict: Fast ’n’ Rocking wins if the tempos on. No bets.

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1400m

Magicus should’ve finished closer last time behind Marwood. Has drawn wide today so provided he gets cover he should be hard to hold out. Second crack at 1400 and should be fitter for it. Mr Individual was well backed over this track and distance last start and did it easy. Divine Mr Artie came out of that race a winner but he was given no hope with the tempo on the day. Prince of Brooklyn came from a minute back last time in a pretty handy 3YO race. He’s drawn wide again and will most likely be spotting the leaders a fair old margin at the bend. Bon Rocket ran well in this grade fresh over 1100. Looks a good chance at odds back onto the firmer track. Vostok has Group 3 form, just fair first up on heavy.

One for exotics: Bon Rocket ($13)

Race prediction: 5-6-8-3

Quaddie selections: 6, 8

Verdict: A race with few chances, think Magicus will drift and depending on odds I may bet.