Caulfield // August 27th

The track is currently rated a Soft 5. With clear weather between now (Thursday) and Saturday we should be running in the Good range. Huge day at Caulfield with the first group 1 of the season.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the $150,000 Resimax Stakes (Race 5), the $150,000 McNeil Stakes (Race 6), the $500,000 Memsie Stakes (Race 7) and the $150,000 Cockram Stakes (Race 9).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO Fillies  Benchmark 78 1400m

Leotie looks a smart filly. Made the jump from maiden grade last start and seems as though 1400 will suit. Perfectly Safe is a winning chance but does look under the current odds available. Might get an easy lead and be hard to run down. Sebrikka does her best when her runs are well spaced. Come into this off a 7 week break and rates highly. Think her latest effort wasn’t as strong as the top pick. Hot Dipped didn’t do enough first up whereas Smart As You Think might need the run first up over 1400.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($10)

Race prediction: 3-4-2-1

Verdict: Leotie clearly the one to beat, even money looks a bit short.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1400m

Jungle Edge would be top pick had he not run yesterday. Damien Oliver gave Prince of Brooklyn a peach of a ride last start settling him much closer to the speed from the wide barrier. Most of these horses are resuming whilst he has race fitness. Should be very hard to hold out on the weight minimum. Tarquin looks a big threat first up with just 52.5 kilos. Wary this may be just a tune up . He’s Our Rokkii found his best form on the rain affected tracks last prep over further. He should be doing his best work late. Maurus creates plenty of interest, place looks best?

One for exotics: Maurus ($17)

Race prediction: 9-6-4-1

Verdict: Prince of Brooklyn to go back to back. Prince of Brooklyn W@2.70

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1400m

My Sister Lil was a bit stiff last start. Kaniana has come out of that race a winner but others have also flopped. 4:0-0-0 at the track and 8:0-2-0 at the distance are big queries but has to be included on her last two. Majestic Lass stormed home last start behind two that held their ground in city class last week. Will be better on the firmer track and up in distance. Takeover looks the best roughie at 81$. Keeps getting sent out at huge odds and is rarely far away. Wide barrier hurts but could run into a place. Gabella will be one to watch over further this spring. Antelucan is more than capable, will be watching her first up though.

One for exotics: Takeover ($81)

Race prediction: 5-11-15-2

Verdict: Will be keeping a keen eye on a few of these mares for later in spring, not keen to bet though.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1200m

Spirit or Lager looks over the odds at 26$. He has a good record second up and won well on the synthetic first up. His form around Duke of Brunswick and Fast Cash puts him right in this. Badajoz has drawn in and gets a nice weight swing on Camdus for a half length margin last start. Today looks to be his best chance for a win. Our Harmony is well placed after the 3kg claim. Has a great record at 1200. Heza Ripper should get an easy lead from barrier 1. Prefer him on wetter though. Will be risking Camdus from the wide barrier, two solid efforts at 1200 this prep though. Eager to see the return of Bon Aurum. He looked a pretty talented 3 year old late last year. The Justice League first up for Weir gets the ultimate gear change. Hard to assess.

One for exotics: Spirit or Lager ($26)

Race prediction: 5-12-9-7

Verdict: Very open race, will have something very small on Spirit or Lager. Spirit or Lager E.W@26:8.00.

Race 5 4YO+ Resimax Stakes (G3) 1100m

Miss Promiscuity is one of my personal favourites and she flies fresh. If its a slow tempo and she settles close to the speed she might be hard to reel in. She does her best work at Caulfield and over the short trips. Under The Louvre is a freak and can pull of some slick sectionals. I think he’s a lay at his current odds of 2.80 over this distance. He’ll need the tempo on and will most likely get right back from the barrier. Shiraz gets the blinkers on today and didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up. He’s got a great record second up, over this distance range and on the firmer surface. Big watch. We’ve Got This is a good fresh horse, not overly convinced he’s up to this class though. Santa Ana Lane won here fresh last prep and is my pick of the new 4 year olds. Dan Zephyr and Trevinder aren’t hopeless at big odds.

One for exotics: Shiraz ($10)

Race prediction: 13-1-2-9

Verdict: Another pretty open race. No bets.

Race 6 3YO McNeil Stakes (G3) 1200m

Awake in Grinzing only won a Sandown Lakeside maiden on debut but he came from last on the heavy track to win in impressive fashion. Defcon came from the tail over this distance to easily beat Prized Icon before a forgive run in the Slipper. Good enough if right first up. It’s hard to assess who is the horse to take out of the Vain Stakes. Highland Beat was resuming and finished well, should appreciate the extra 100 metres. Revolving Door was also resuming and was wide throughout, he stuck on well. Wazzenme is another who will run well over 1200 and gets the blinkers on today. Hardham took the rails run and looked to have his chance last start, is a genuine winning hope but can’t have him as favourite. Blue Tycoon is another big watch first up. Whilst Seaburge has to go in too off some very nice trials.

One for exotics: Awake in Grinzing ($13)

Race prediction: 10-1-3-6

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14

Verdict: Hard to have a confident bet here. Going very wide in the quaddie. No bets.

Race 7 3YO+ Memsie Stakes (G1) 1400m

Black Heart Bart does look the one to beat here. He thrives at this distance range and has drawn to get a nice run. The only query is he’s never raced first up at 1400 before. Oliver back on Lord Of The Sky is a big tick. Still not convinced he’s a 1400 metre horse though. They ran quick early and he was entitled to drop out last start but stuck on okay. Mahuta can be forgiven as he was found lame last start, would prefer him around the 10$ quote though. Not convinced Palentino loves Caulfield but the distance rise gives him claims. McEvoy is trying plenty of gear changes with Alpine Eagle today. He’s too good to ignore despite his fresh failure in May. All three of Hayes horses have minor claims.

One for exotics: Lord of the Sky ($14)

Race prediction: 2-3-8-11

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 8, 11

Verdict: Backing Black Heart Bart for the win. Black Heart Bart W@3.10

Race 8 Heatherlie Stakes (Listed) 1700m

Magnapal won this race last year. He closed very well last start and was a touch unlucky not to finish closer. Should relish every bit of 1700 metres and is the one to beat. Tom Melbourne is twice a winner first up. He was super impressive his first two runs last prep before going amiss in the Mornington Cup. Good hope. Provocative is the unknown factor. She was huge in the Queensland Oaks, I’m not overly convinced how strong that race was and she’s never won in this class over this distance before. Second Bullet can run a race here with 54 on his back. Has beaten Killarney Kid over 2000. Longeron is 7 weeks between runs. I think he might just need this one but he has a fantastic record here.

One for exotics: Second Bullet ($10)

Race prediction: 4-3-11-7

Quaddie selections: 3, 4, 7, 14

Verdict: Happy to have a bet on Magnapal after his effort in the PB Lawrence. Magnapal W@7.50

Race 9 4YO+ Mares Cockram Stakes (G3) 1200m

Choose is twice a winner fresh and this is her best distance. Crossed the line with Azkadellia over 1200 last preparation. Ocean Embers looks ready for this class now, she’s going to need a lot of luck from the barrier but is absolutely flying this prep. Telopea is as genuine as they come, she looked good in her win before the break. Last go at 1200 she came from last to nab second. Kayjay’s Joy was massive first up last preparation. She’s drawn wide and is another who will need luck but can’t be ignored. Mossin Around lost momentum at a key stage first up, hard to know if she would’ve challenged the winner but she definitely would’ve been a lot closer. Suspect there isn’t much between Don’t Doubt Mamma and Thames Court. The latter ticks plenty of boxes whilst the former is very consistent.

One for exotics: Choose ($14)

Race prediction: 5, 13, 9, 8

Quaddie selections: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13

Verdict: Choose looks a value hope at big odds in a very open race. No bets.

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Randwick // 20th August

winx

Photo: Hugh Bowman salutes on champion mare Winx

This Saturday bring NSW Racing back to Randwick, for the running of the Warwick Stakes (1400m) as the feature race of the day. Champion mare Winx returns for what should be a cracking day. 

Current weather forecasts for Saturday in Sydney show there to be no rain Thursday, Friday or Saturday. The current rating for the track is soft and this should remain the same for raceday, if not improve.

R1 Moraitis Communications (bm83) 1400m

Pindan Pearl has scored on 2 out of 4 occasions this prep. Won well two starts back with a big weight and runs 2.5kg lighter than that here. Late entry in this race and loves a soft track. Should be right up there. Super Tycoon is flying at the moment and he’s going for four in a row. Was very dominant in a huge win last start, winning by 3.8L, however he’s up 4kg here. I think he may struggle under the big weight, but he’ll be gunning to prove me wrong. Conarchie had a tough run on a heavy track last time out, but stuck on well to finish third in a fairly strong field. Has finished 1L second to Super Tycoon in the past, and turns around 4.5kg on that run here. Was a few start ago now, however he has shown he can match it with them here. Torgersen resumes after a four month spell. Hasn’t shown much at trials but never usually does. He’s running with a big weight here which won’t help but he wouldn’t shock in this grade. Shadow Lord and Pera Pera the best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Shadow Lord

Race Prediction: 6-3-7-1

Verdict: Relatively open race here but think Pindan Pearl is a great chance at current odds. Pindan Pearl W @ $4.60

R2 The Randwick Mayor’s Cup-bm72 2400m

Lie Direct blitzed the field on the bogged heavy track last time out. Has finished in the trifecta in his last five starts and looks to be a very consistent horse. Up 3.5kg which looks to be an issue, however the apprentice claim will help. Won’t be a heavy track again, which may bring others into the race. Braces finished second to him last time out, and has a slight weight advantage going in here. A very consistent gelding who will be out for revenge here. Major Major was in the same race as the top 2 last start, and was disappointing as the favourite. I think the form around that race is slightly flawed, as the track was in awful condition. Richard Of Yorke ran well for an outsider at Canterbury Park last start finishing third, however I’m not too sure why he’s so short. The rise in distance looks ideal but of the two starts in Australia, he’s yet to show any real dominance. Will enjoy this distance but may need this run too. Elusive Runner best of the rest.

One For Exotics: Braces

Race Prediction: 1-2-3-5

Verdict: Braces looks an appealing bet, meeting Lie Direct 4.5kg better than last start! Braces EW @ $8.50/$2.45

R3 Tab Highway Plate (c3) 1600m

Such an open race! Akiko Gold has been running well in her last three starts, running a close second at Rosehill last start. The mile distance looks to suit and should be hard to beat. Distinctive Look won well last start, and drops 1.5kg here. Second time in town and a soft track will help. Grand Rouge was only just behind Akiko Gold last start and looks to be improving with the increase in distance. Hooge won well last start and has been running well of late. First start in the city and could run a sneaky race at the bottom weight. A soft track will help her. Despite being the top weight, New Divide has the quality to cause an upset. Thunder Road has also shown he can match it with the major players in this race. Would be a big effort, though.

One For Exotics: Hooge

Race Prediction: 13-7-8-18

Verdict: Way too open, no bets.

R4 Primo Smallgoods Up And Coming 1300m

Divine Prophet was brilliant in the Champagne last start, finishing third to Prized Icon. He gets a 6kg weight advantage here which will put him right in this race. One of the best hopes if the track can stay relatively dry. Derryn bolted home to score his first victory at Caulfield last start. His last 200m was the fastest of the day, and has bucketloads of potential. Extra distance looks ideal. Thronum just held on last time out to deny Mediterranean victory on the line. Seems as though he thrives on a fairly wet track and will need that to win here. Pound Sterling is a good each way chance after winning first up at Warwick Farm last start. Drops 2.5kg and should be competitive. Taj Mahal the next best after winning his maiden in April. Should be better for the freshen up too.

One For Exotics: Pound Sterling

Race Prediction: 3-4-2-7

Verdict: Lots of winning chances here and will hold my money for some other races.

R5 Alpha Flight Silver Shadow 1200m

Omei Sword resumes here after three barrier trials. Was never ridden to win in those but in her second trial she looked the goods. Ran a close second behind Calliope earlier this year and gets a nice weight swing on her here. Look for her late. Thyme For Roses will look to claim the lead from a wide barrier and the pace should be on. Running very well in recent trials and has some serious talent. Calliope is a resuming Golden Slipper runner who will be looking to show what she’s capable of here. Manaya won very commandingly on debut at Scone, and prior to that won 2 trials by over 7 lengths both times. Trialled well here and could threaten. Quick Feet the next best of the lot.

One For Exotics: Thyme For Roses

Race Prediction: 5-3-1-4

Verdict: Should be hotly contested by a few but I think Thyme For Roses is a good each way bet. EW @ $12/$3.20

R6 Bob Ingham Show County Qlty 1200m

Le Romain had an outstanding run of races last prep, and usually enjoys it first up. Taught them all a lesson in the Randwick Guineas and think he might do the same here. Loves the distance and the track, will be hard to beat. Vashka scored two nice wins at Rosehill and Caulfield last prep before going back to spell. Had three trials now and performed very well in all three. Usually runs well first up and is a definite danger. Boss Lane had a decent run of races last prep. Not usually a good first up runner but is a talented horse who has proven form at this track. Think you have to include both Tycoon Tara and Mount Nebo in the chances, with the Missile form they both have. Decision Time for wider exotics with the low weight.

One For Exotics: Decision Time

Race Prediction: 5-3-6-8

Verdict: Like the odds given for Le Romain and think he’s too good first up, at the distance, and at the track. Le Romain W @ $4.60

Quaddie Numbers: 3 5 6

R7 Warwick Stakes 1400m

The superstar is back! Winx makes her return here after a four month spell. We all know how good she is, and what a special horse Waller has on his hands. She will be right up there again and should really blitz this field! Lucia Valentina bolted home in the Queen Elizabeth last start! Was a huge win and back now after four months off. Two trials with no real eye-catching performance, but did finish off well in latest. If any of them are going to beat Winx, Lucia Valentina has the best chance, jumping with the same weight! Rebel Dane the next best after run in the missile. Throw Hartnell in for fourth.

One For Exotics: Lucia Valentina

Race Prediction: 6-7-4-2

Verdict: Well Winx should be winning. Too short for mine! No bets.

Quaddie Numbers: 6 (include 7 if you think Winx can be beaten)

R8 Forum Group Toy Show Qlty 1300m

Dixie Blossoms was our top pick last week, only to be scratched in the lead up. Bucketloads of potential for this mare after a very promising beginning to her career. Will be exciting to watch! Elle Lou ran very well last start, beating home last weekend winner Extensible by a length. Drops 6kg on last start which will definitely help! Pioneering is shooting for four in a row after three very strong wins. Has the advantage in terms of fitness and drops 4.5kg here! Knit’n’Purl is having a great campaign so far. Gets minor weight relief after winning well on a heavy track here last time out. A definite each way chance. Pearls is a good chance at longer odds, dropping some weight here. Heavens Above is a good horse but think that the rise in weight will prove too much.

One For Exotics: Knit’n’Purl

Race Prediction: 6-4-5-8

Verdict: Very open race. Dixie Blossoms looks the goods but a few threats from others. Willing to have a go on her though. Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.40

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 5 6 8

R9 Sydney Markets Foundation-bm85 1000m

Haptic hasn’t run for 10 months where he came 3rd in the Blue Sapphire. Two recent trials have been positive and first up, track, and distance record is good. Is the one to beat from barrier six. Southern Legend is unbeaten in three starts for this stable and had a lengthy break now. Will be fresh and ready to fire. Barrier 13 won’t help here. Think its a race between those two. Shahrazad was disappointing as short fave last time out. Loses a kilo here and willing to forgive last run. With a bit of luck she can get them. Rose Of Man looks a small chance with such a low weight, and has been competitive in the past.

One For Exotics: Shahrazad

Race Prediction: 3-2-9-11

Verdict: Probably a race between Haptic and Southern Legend. Too tough to split them.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 9 11

 

 

 

Caulfield // 13th August

We managed to get all the winners in our preview last week at Flemington, good for those exotics players! From a betting perspective, early markets gave us the edge where we managed 2 out of 5 winners to make a small profit. Lets keep the streak rolling this weekend where there is some high quality horses resuming. Weather looks good between now (Wednesday) and Saturday so we should be racing on a Good 4.

The headline races for Saturday at Caulfield are the Group 3 $150,000 KS Environmental Vain Stakes (Race 5), the Group 3 $150,000 Winslow Group Stakes (Race 6) and the Group 2 $200,000 PB Lawrence Stakes (Race 7).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 84 2000m

O’Lonera is absolutely flying at the moment. She won comfortably last time and isn’t hindered by the drop back in distance. Hard to knock Hursley. He gets a nice weight drop off a solid win last time. Has drawn well and should be in the finish. Khutulun saves her best for Caulfield; I think the 3 year old form (now 4 year olds) is a bit stronger that what she’s been racing in. Not sure if Name The Day will measure up here but his form has been very good this prep. Electric Fusion could bob up at odds back on the firmer surface.

One for exotics: Electric Fusion ($34)

Race prediction: 6-4-3-5

Verdict: Pretty tough race with 4 last start winners. O’Lonera should be very hard to beat. No bets.

Race 2 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Savannah Moon ran well last week and is suited with the drop back to the mile. She showed great fight at her start prior beating a subsequent winner and that form looks good enough for this. Choice was well backed first up and finished strongly. Jumping to the mile looks a bit of a query second up but she does do her best racing over this trip. Kaniana didn’t enjoy the best run last week losing momentum at a key stage. She should run out a strong mile. Gets in with no weight. Rustic Melody looks as though she should be competitive here. Kris Lees doesn’t bring them over very often. Throw a blanket over the rest.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-7-1

Verdict: Looks an ugly race. No bets.

Race 3 Benchmark 84 1600m

Pretty keen on Leica Day here. He’s never won second up but loves the track and loves the distance. He was desperately unlucky not to finish closer when blocked for a run at a crucial stage behind a subsequent winner Ulmann. Wide draw suits. Volcanic Ash is edging closer to a win and does his best racing here. Would like to see one more run before I jump on. Caprese is a get back and run on type who makes his own luck. Oliver jumps off and he’s never run at the mile but it looks as if it would suit. Up in class. By The Grace has a stack of weight and wants it wet. Forgive last time? Magic Consol goes in next.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 4-8-9-1

Verdict: Drink beer back Weir. Leica Day W@3.80

Race 4 4YO+ Mares Open Handicap 1100m

Ocean Embers was huge first up here and came from a long way back against the bias at Morphettville in the lightning stakes. She gets in on the minimum and should appreciate the extra 50 metres. Mossin Around boasts a first up win over Tsarita. Has some classy 3YO form but monitor the betting. Atmospherical was given every possible chance with a dream ride last time. The form from that race has been franked and she has a great second up record. Chiavari is six weeks between runs. She’s flying this prep and looks a winning chance. Wants it wetter though. Cana looks the best roughie for multiples. Impossible to line up the Sydneysiders Glenbawn Dame and Awasita, but their interstate form has been solid.

One for exotics: Cana ($16)

Race prediction: 8-6-1-5

Verdict: Ocean Embers to bounce back. Ocean Embers W@4.00

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Group 3 1100m

Highland Beat looks ready to produce on his return after a nice trial. Never won here but rarely far away. Artie Dee Two won a solid race at the Valley two months ago. He should appreciate the freshen up. Russian Revolution looks to be a promising colt, unproven at this level though and $2.30? Valliano won a handy race here fresh last prep. He’s more than capable of taking this one out. Power Trip isn’t hopeless at big odds, Wazzenme goes in next.

One for exotics: Highland Beat ($10)

Race prediction: 4-6-5-1

Verdict: Wide open race for the new 3 year olds. No bets.

Race 6 3YO Fillies Group 3 1100m

Merriest won impressively over this track and trip on debut before flopping down the straight. Keen to see her around a bend again. Concealer ran a huge race in the blue diamond prelude fresh last prep. Look for her to be storming home late. Hot Dipped looks the best roughie. She’s trialled well and was well backed in a group 2 at Flemington before not running up to expectations. Immediately spelled. Wary of Conscious. She should take great improvement from her one run last prep. Modern Wonder is another who has to be included, does look under the odds at $5.50 though. Sword of Light looks to be just a fresh performer, has to go in on her first up effort though.

One for exotics: Hot Dipped ($21)

Race prediction: 11-1-5-13

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13

Verdict: Might have a very small each way bet on Hot Dipped in another open race. Hot Dipped E.W@21:6.00

Race 7 3YO+ PB Lawrence Stakes Group 2 1400m

The feature of the day and i’m leaning towards Suavito. She flies first up and has won her last 3 fresh over this track and distance. The firm track is a big tick and her form around Lucky Hussler and Turn Me Loose looks more than good enough for this. Mahuta looks the biggest danger. Weir said he’d need the run first up and he ran well over an unsuitable distance after being wide throughout. He’s unbeaten over 1400 and has drawn to get the run of the race. Miss Rose de Lago does her best racing here. Oliver has chosen her over Suavito and Lord of the Sky, that may be an indication of how she’s going. The Cleaner was just edged out in this race last year. This looks to be a stronger version of the race but i’m keen to see if Gelagotis has got him back to peak condition. Smokin’ Joey looks to have come back in good order. Could be the blow out. Entirely Platinum boasts a 0.1L second fresh to Boban over this trip, more than good enough if right. Lord of the Sky is a freak on his day, the throat operation seems to have worked but i don’t think 1400 is his go. Jameka for wider exotics.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($10)

Race prediction: 12-11-14-2

Quaddie selections: 2, 11, 12, 14

Verdict: Looks a great edition of the PB Lawrence stakes. Suavito to make it 4 on the trot fresh. Suavito W@6.00.

Race 8 4YO+ Regal Roller Stakes 1200m

Voodoo Lad has started favourite at every one of his 13 starts and has never missed the trifecta. He was throwing his head around down the straight at his previous two and i’m keen to see him around a bend again. Fast ’n’ Rocking’s racing pattern requires the right tempo and a bit of luck (as seen by 5 wins from 41 starts). He’s got 60kg here and although he’s clearly the class of the field I can’t see any value at $3. Girl Guide was given absolutely no hope by Williams first up. Hopefully she settles a bit closer from gate one, 11$ was a steal when markets opened. Snoopy resumes a gelding and is unbeaten fresh. Big watch. Nautical won first up off a similar break last time beating home Odyssey Moon. Think she might find these a bit too slick. This looks to be a tune up for Palentino. Back him in a few starts time.

One for exotics: Girl Guide ($11)

Race prediction: 5-1-3-9

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 5

Verdict: Fast ’n’ Rocking wins if the tempos on. No bets.

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1400m

Magicus should’ve finished closer last time behind Marwood. Has drawn wide today so provided he gets cover he should be hard to hold out. Second crack at 1400 and should be fitter for it. Mr Individual was well backed over this track and distance last start and did it easy. Divine Mr Artie came out of that race a winner but he was given no hope with the tempo on the day. Prince of Brooklyn came from a minute back last time in a pretty handy 3YO race. He’s drawn wide again and will most likely be spotting the leaders a fair old margin at the bend. Bon Rocket ran well in this grade fresh over 1100. Looks a good chance at odds back onto the firmer track. Vostok has Group 3 form, just fair first up on heavy.

One for exotics: Bon Rocket ($13)

Race prediction: 5-6-8-3

Quaddie selections: 6, 8

Verdict: A race with few chances, think Magicus will drift and depending on odds I may bet.

Eagle Farm // 4th June

Queensland racing takes us to Eagle Farm this weekend, for the running of the $500,000 Queensland Oaks. Weather looks a disaster for Saturday, indicating the track will more than likely be heavy. Look for strong Heavy form.

R1 Bracken Ridge Tav. The Phoenix 1400m

Archives won well last start in a fairly big race at Doomben. McDonald retains the ride and looks the one to beat here. Jericho ran a close second to Archives last start. No weight turnaround but will be better for the run. Drawn in the carpark the only query. Redouble wasn’t too far off those two last start. Was drawn towards the inside last time but out wide here. Will have to improve a fair bit to win. One that could cause an upset is Two Shoes. Ran well behind Sacred Elixir last time and actually loses 2kgs on that run. The each way odds look good here.

One To Watch: Two Shoes

Race Prediction: 1-3-12-4

R2 Amgrow Lightning Hcp 1000m

Very open race this. Furnaces has shown what he’s capable of before. Drawn the widest of the bunch here which won’t help his cause. Disappointing last start but has the quality. Felines absolutely loves it first up. Bowman on board is a huge tick and rarely runs a bad race. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Shamalia run competitively, however she won a recent trial by 4.5 lengths! Wide barrier won’t help. but good to see her back here. Keep very handy. Hardline won a huge race in NZ over a year ago, and won 2/3 since then. Yet to lose first up in a short career, and this will be a challenge, but will be giving it all. Into The Red won well just over a month ago, and will be flashing home late from a wide barrier. Not hopeless. Another who will give this a crack at decent odds is Espiritu. Won 4/4 first up and been running in some decent races. Down in the weights and drawn inside will help.

One To Watch: Shamalia

Race Prediction: 4-3-8-5

R3 Pages Event Eagle Farm Cup 2200m

Maurus was super in the Doomben cup last start. Is a horse that hardly ever runs a poor race. Blake Shinn picks up the ride in a fairly small field. Unbeaten on a heavy track and think it’s the best bet here. Mighty Lucky scored well last time out to win the Lord Mayors Cup. Same weight as the faves and only 1 third from two starts on a heavy track, however showed its quality last time; keep handy. Volkstok’n’barrell is yet to race on a heavy track, however has the quality to win here. Think the unknown form on this sort of track is a bit risky, but he will run well.

One To Watch: Mighty Lucky

Race Prediction: 4-1-5-2

R4 Landfill Daybreak Lover 1400m

Kimberley Star was very good last start, finishing 1.4lengths 3rd in a big race at Scone. McDonald on board is a big tick and she has gone 3:2-0-1 on heavy tracks. She’ll be the one to beat. Sold For Song has had a very promising start to her career. Two good wins at Doomben last prep and two close seconds this prep. Untried on a heavy track which may be the only query here. Perfect Dare hasn’t had any wet track form to date. If he can handle the track well, he’ll be right in this. The Virginian went from a 3.3length win on debut to only a few lengths back in the GC Guineas. Certainly has potential for this but yet to race on wet track.

One To Watch: The Virginian

Race Prediction: 12-11-9-6

R5 Designline Graphics Juanmo 1200m

Just about every horse in this race has a claim. Get the dartboard out. Miss Cover Girl is a good horse who has shown what she’s capable of in the past. 1 start for 1 win on heavy track, but drawn wide. Serenade faces a similar race to her last race, and no reason she can’t win here. Sultry Feeling is a good horse who can run a nice race here from barrier 2. Fairly consistent and raced 13 times over this distance, in with a shot. Adorabubble does run well over a wet track and finished off very nicely last start. Very good each way chance. Alucinari is a good second up horse who can run a race here too.

One To Watch: Adorabubble

Race Prediction: 2-18-1-9

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 6 9 18

R6 Mirvac Qtc Cup 1300m

Spill The Beans has been very impressive in last two runs. Very low in weights and looks as though it’ll be very tough to beat here. Untried on heavy but has won on a soft track. Eloping looks a good bet here too. Down in the weights and blitzed the field last time out to score impressive victory. Has the quality but hasn’t won on heavy track. We all know that Kaepernick is a good horse, however due to the weather conditions, is a likely scratching. Snippets Land scored a huge victory last time in the BRC Sprint at very nice odds. Strung together some very good performances and wouldn’t surprise many here. Target In Sight was behind Malaguerra in the BTC Cup last start. Handles the wet well and is a good chance.

One To Watch: Snippets Land

Race Prediction: 11-4-9-3

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 9 11

R7 Treasury Casino/hotel Qld Oaks 2400m

Another dartboard needed for this Group 1 contest. Kebede beat home a few of these horses last start. No change in weight and should be up towards the end once again. Imposing Lass is a horse with great quality. Shown us how good she is this prep going 3 from 4 starts. Falkenberg is an up and coming horse who ran very well once he got clear last start. If he can avoid trouble in traffic here he’ll have his chance. Provocative is yet to run on a heavy track, but if the start of her career is anything to go by, she’ll be competitive here. I think Mount Omei is overs here. Now with Waller and won nicely last start. Will be tough but do like place odds of $11. Sebring Sally ran a huge race last time, and if that’s anything to go by she’s not without a chance here.

One To Watch: Mount Omei

Race Prediction: 3-4-12-19

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 6 12 18 19

R8 Fkg Group Spear Chief Hcp 1500m

Federal is a super horse who rarely runs a bad race. Handles all track conditions and will start favourite here. Form behind Music Magnate looks good. Religify has been oh so consistent lately. Has shown what he’s made of and isn’t out of this. Only query is the extra 100m, might be at full stretch. Hi World is a horse who had a lot of potential a while back, however hasn’t really fulfilled that to date. 2 from 2 on a heavy track which will help him if he is to cause an upset here. Think these three will be tough to beat.

One To Watch: Hi World

Race Prediction: 6-1-2-13

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 6

 

Best Bets:

R2 – #4 Shamalia EW $8.00/$2.50

R3 – #4 Maurus W @ $3.50

R4 – #12 Kimberley Star W @ $3.30

 

Doomben // 28th May

Big day of racing at Doomben, with the Group 1 featured Doomben 10,000, the Group 2 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes, and the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes.

 

R1 Ambassador Travel (bm95) 1200m

Fine Mist looks to be the pick of the field here. Won 2/3 first up and performed very well last prep. Will be hard to beat. Saluter won well last time out and ran well towards the end of last year. Doesn’t usually run well second up and has a lot of weight, but definitely has a chance here. Le Val drops back in grade and looks as though it will appreciate that. Is a good horse who has drawn well. Slots faced a tough field last time out and ran well considering. Has won twice first up and could improve and surprise here. Best long shot is the old boy Pago Rock. Has the quality but we haven’t seen it for a while. Won 5/9 first up.

One To Watch: Pago Rock

Race Prediction: 5-1-7-4

R2 Suez Queensland Day Stakes 1200m

Roeinda was so close to pinching a very good win at Scone last time out in a big race. put four good runs together since breaking maiden and drawn well here with Cahill on board, looks a great chance. Barood had no luck last time out but still ran okay. Was very consistent last prep and think it can give this a real shake here. Mogador is a horse with serious potential. Hasn’t quite lived up to that late but having McDonald on board will help here. Hasn’t had much barrier luck of late and won’t get that here. Still with its claims. Secret Saga scored some impressive victories late last year. Has shown she has the quality and could strike here. Kamacite isn’t without a chance. Strung together two impressive wins and looking to take the next step here.

One To Watch: Kamacite

Race Prediction: 10-5-2-9

R3 Glenlogan Park Stakes 1350m

Ghisoni* is a serious horse. Superior form here behind Japonisme and Counterattack. Will be very, very hard to beat. Short, but a good inclusion for multis. Amicus probably has the next best form, running well in some big races in Sydney this year. Drawn well and if given some luck could contest. Press Report has put two good runs together of late, only won 2 of 29 but a place would be a victory for it here. Just A Blur has some decent form behind it and could sneak in for a place.

One To Watch: Just A Blur

Race Prediction: 8-1-5-9

R4 Channel Seven Premier’s Cup 2200m

Real Love hardly ever runs a bad race. Loves this sort of distance and won its only start at Doomben. Some very good form of late and is the pick of the race. Honey Toast won the Toowoomba Cup and backed it up with decent run in the Hollindale. Loses a lot of weight and will be up there here. Junoob was ridden well last start to finish a strong fourth behind Real Love. Has a slight weight turn around here and could surprise a few! Index Linked isn’t without a chance here, running well in its last two starts. Down in the weights but think it’ll need to be at it’s best to win here.

One To Watch: Junoob

Race Prediction: 4-8-1-3

R5 Mitavite Brc Sires’ Produce 1350m

Good start to the quaddie with lots of young talent! Attention ran well last start, finishing a close second and beating the favourite here Souchez by .1 of a length. Blake Shinn retains the ride and no reason it can’t win again. Souchez*, although beaten last start, looks to have the most talent of this field. Had a great start to his career and think it’ll be the hardest to beat here. Royal Tithe has had a tremendous start to her career and theres no way you could dismiss here. Must respect. Cadogan not without chance here winning nicely last time out and form behind Jericho prior to that, keep handy. Sacred Elixir also a very good chance.

One To Watch: Royal Tithe

Race Prediction: 2-3-13-8

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 6 8 13

R6 Lord Mayor’s Cup 1615m

Amovatio* looks to be a great chance here. Beat home next best horse Mighty Lucky in last two starts and the weights seem to be in her favour. Drawn midfield and will be right in this. Mighty Lucky has been fighting hard against Amovatio of late. Also drawn well in barrier 6 and will be looking to continue his good form. Hopfgarten is a good horse who won first up. Not sure how he’ll go against these two faves but definitely has a chance. Think Worthy Cause also has a chance, and will want to get out early from barrier 9.

One To Watch: Hopfgarten

Race Prediction: 1-6-7-4

Quaddie Numbers: 1 6 7

R7 J Boag’s Prem. Doomben 10,000 1350m

Azkadellia is a horse that we all know has exceptional quality. Hardly ever runs a bad race. Was very impressive last time out and if it can recreate that form it will win. Dothraki was unlucky not to beat Malaguerra last start, taking it all the way to the line. Going off that run it could easily put in a huge performance here. Fell Swoop has some very strong form, and while finishing disappointingly last start, I’m backing him to bounce back here. Delectation finished off nicely in the BTC Cup last start. The extra distance will suit and will be in this til the end. Music Magnate also not without a chance, running very well for the majority of his career, however this is a step up.

One To Watch: Fell Swoop

Race Prediction: 7-2-3-1

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 3 7

R8 Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stk 2200m

Mackintosh* has been in absolutely terrific form of late. Becoming one of the most exciting horses in Australia at the moment. Think it’ll run well and be very hard to beat here. Major threat is Howard Be Thy Name. 4 victories in a row, jumping in class each time. Will be interesting to see what Rawiller will do from the wide gate. If it get’s a run it’ll have a chance. Brazen isn’t the worst bet at decent odds. Could cheekily run a place here. Think the top two won’t be beaten.

One To Watch: Howard Be Thy Name

Race Prediction: 4-1-10-2

Quaddie Numbers: Pick your poison. 4 outright, or include Howard Be Thy Name?

 

Best Bets:

R3 – #8 Ghisoni W @ $1.80

R5 – #2 Souchez W @ $2.50

R6 – #1 Amovatio EW @ $4.60/1.90

R8 – #4 Mackintosh W @ $2.30

Morphettville // 21st May

Race 2 Port Adelaide Cup 2500m

Zanteca is edging towards a win. His effort over this distance in the Lexus was fantastic. Wasn’t disgraced in this race last year as a short favourite. Drops 8.5kg here and gets the gun jock in the saddle. Master Zephyr was nominated for a race at Flemington and i think he’s much more suited here. Probably wasn’t in the best ground at Warrnambool and he did make his move earlier than the three that finished ahead of him. Has won at 2500 before which is a big tick. Snow Secret had a nice Australian debut. Easily beat Zanteca on that occasion but is a lot worse off at the weights. Dont discount Falago at big odds. He tends to mix his form but his best is good enough and ran a nice race in the Mornington Cup. Tunes always runs well at Morphettville. If you put a line through his mornington cup failure he can run into the placings here.

Verdict: Think Zanteca can figure here. Zanteca W@5.50

Race 4 Centaurea Stakes 2015m

It’s hard to line up Gabella’s form but she does seem to be getting better with every run this preparation. Might want it further now but her effort from the back at Caulfield 3 weeks ago was an eye-catcher. Blinkers first time is a tick. Into the Mist beat a similar field a fortnight ago and seemed to do it with a bit in hand. She’s way up in the weights and the 2000 is a query. No doubting she’s in career best form. Inclined to put Loveitt in the mix here at huge odds. Always finishes hard. Felicienne might appreciate the step up in trip. Drawn very wide and loomed to win but couldn’t finish it off last start. Might be able to turn the tables with the 3.5kg swing on the winner. Metaphorical next best.

Verdict: Gabella looks well weighted to win here, might have something small on Loveitt too. $12 was a steal at market open for the former. Gabella W@6.00

Race 5 R.A Lee Stakes 1600m

Alpine Eagle could be the next best thing. He has a devastating turn of foot on his day but has been hindered with injuries. If he’s right he just wins this race. Atlantis Dream is the horse with race fitness here and looks ready to break through. Down in the weights here and it would be a surprise to not see her in the finish. Prince of Penzance looks over the odds here. He ran a cracker first up in the Memsie last prep over 1400 and a 2L defeat to Boban looks pretty good form for this (Not to mention a Melbourne Cup winner). The rest of these look a class below but Tonopah his claims as does Qadir.

Verdict: Will be watching the betting. If theres any money for Alpine Eagle load up. $3.40 looks a steal.

Race 6 Proud Miss Stakes 1200m

Looks a good betting race. Taking a punt on Runway Star at nice odds here. She’s drawn a better barrier today and really hit her straps late to motor home. Stokes and Tourneur always fire in the big races. I Love It was first up after a spell and just faded late in a hot Robert Sangster stakes behind Precious Gem. She loves it over 1200 and has a very good second up record. Looks the one to beat from the good gate. Tuscan Sling loomed to win in the same race but just couldn’t finish it off. Gets the 1kg swing for 0.2L margin on the top-weight and on mathematics should probably be winning. Kayjay’s Joy ran a cracker first up as well. Was backed off the map on that occasion. What did she beat though? My Poppette chose Adelaide over Melbourne today and was an eye catcher first up. The form has been franked but this is significantly harder and she’s drawn off the track. Private Secretary is another with claims.

Verdict: Open race but think Runway Star can take it out. Runway Star W@8.50.

Race 7 Goodwood Stakes 1200m

This ones as open as they come. Stack of chances. The Quarterback had it all to do against the track bias last time and still ran very well. Beat home the favourite over this distance a few starts ago and not entirely sure why he’s at $21. Overs. Miss Promiscuity looked to be travelling well in the Sangster before the fall. In career best form and looks a very big threat with just 54 on her back from the good gate. Flamberge won this race last year. If you put a line through his soft failure in the TJ Smith he would be a lot shorter odds here. Carries a stack of weight and has drawn wide but you’d be a fool to dismiss him. Black Heart Bart started favourite last year in this race and motored home but didn’t figure in the finish. Despite his stats i think he’s better over 1400. He can definitely win but looks a bit short in this field. Under the Lourve is forever running on and can run some slick late sectionals. Looks a danger here but he’s a non winner at this level. Admiral and Supido next best. Can Super One measures up? I don’t think so.

Verdict: Another open race but i’ll be having bets on The Quarterback@$21 and Miss Promiscuity@$34.

Morphettville // 7th May

Race 4 DC Mackay Stakes 1100m (G3)

Thermal Current brings the best formlines and looks hard to beat here. Won this race last year and has drawn well again. Top pick. Super One has the talent as seen from his international form but i can’t justify the $3.40 quote after his first preparation in Australia. Nostradamus is impossible to catch but did show some of that star 3YO form last start. Well weighted to do it all again over the same track and distance. Im a big fan of La Passe but she was pretty poor first up. Look for an improved showing but wait for her over a little bit further. Scratchy Lass isn’t hopeless at big odds and neither is I am Gypsy.

Verdict: Thermal Current looks a nice play at $4.60 (Bet365).

Race 5 Euclase Stakes 1200m (G2)

Tough race. Despite drawing wide Demonstrate looks to be a good each way bet at $14. Not far away from Rageese last start who absolutely bolted in last week here. Good record at the distance and gets the gun jock in the saddle. Secret Agenda looks well placed here after drawing 7 and brings some mixed Sydney form. Seems to run better up on the pace so if she jumps well she will be every hope. Jalan Jalan looks ready to peak third up; beat home the quarterback last start. Miss Gunpowder for the lethal Stokes and Tourneur combo has looked to have every possible chance at her two runs this campaign. The significant weight relief helps and should be in the finish. Super Cash always finishes hard but might want it a bit further. Almighty Girl was slightly disappointing behind Miss Promiscuity after being well backed. Clearly has the talent but place looks best here. Mr Individual has plenty of upside and can run well first up. Faatinah has claims at big odds.

Verdict: Way too open for a bet. Demonstrate appeals each way at $14:4.00 (Ladbrokes).

Race 6 Australasian Oaks 2000m (G1)

These races don’t get any easier but make for fantastic viewing. Going for one at double figure odds in Bengal Cat. Drawn wide but has been in super form her last two starts. Put Silent Sedition to the sword two starts back and two subsequent winners have come from her most previous outing. If she has any luck slotting in handy to the speed she’s the one to beat. C’est Beau La Vie draws a poor barrier again here but her effort from the car park last start was fantastic. $13 looks the value each way. No knock on Silent Sedition as she’s come back in terrific fashion this preparation. Prefer something at longer odds in this open race. Pike doesn’t travel from his stomping grounds for nothing and I would be all over Arcadia Dream if she hadn’t drawn barrier 20. That ties in First Impressions at huge odds. Abbey Marie looks to have plenty of upside but she’s jumping from 1440m to 2000 here and from a benchmark 70 to a group 1. No. Asinara looks the best of the Sydney brigade.

Verdict: Exciting edition of the Oaks this year. I won’t be betting but Bengal Cat is my top pick at $10:3.40 (Sportsbet)

Race 7 Robert Sangster Stakes 1200m (G1)

Get the dart board out. Going for another one here at big odds in Sabatini. She’s drawn off the track but her first up effort was promising and she has a very good second up record. Disappointed in this race last year when right in the betting and immediately spelled after. Miss Promiscuity has been so good to me but the poor barrier really hurts her chances as her best efforts are on speed. Runway Star looks over the odds at $31. Big class jump but does like it here at Morphettville and hasn’t drawn off the track like all the other horses i like. It’s beyond me how Griante won the galaxy in Sydney but Williams maintaining the ride is a big tick. Soft ground may have been an issue last start. Big step up for Sheidel, Precious Gem might want it further, Tuscan Sling was disappointing last start and is capable of better, Scarlett Billows might want it a bit further but was fantastic last start, I Love It runs well fresh and was a length off Miracles of Life in this race last year, Vezelay is getting back to her best and wouldn’t shock. 3 year olds don’t have a great record in this race as of late but Dont Doubt Mamma and Petits Filous the pick of them.

Verdict: Raffle. I can see something at big odds winning this one. Might have something very small on the top three picks.

Race 8 Queen of the South Stakes 1600m (G2)

French Emotion looks hard to beat here. Ran very well in track record time behind Scarlett Billows who lines up in a group 1 today. Ultra consistent and the step up to the mile looks ideal. Drawn wide. Into the Mist bolted in last start in a much easier race. Runs well at the track and should get every chance from the barrier. Mefnooda is going for 3 on the trot this campaign and she looks more than capable of doing so here. Mick Price and Froggy Newitt combine well and pump out many winners and it wouldn’t shock to see her pop up at 13$ here. Hijack Hussy gets some much needed weight relief and the senior rider takes over. Always seems to be flashing home and missing. D-Day today. Atlantis Dream has drawn wide again but is edging closer and closer to a win. Ticks all the boxes and looks over the odds at $13. Cant split Felicienne and Metaphorical but the latter does look under the odds in this field. Loveitt does look over the odds.

Verdict: French Emotion to get the punters home on a winning note. $4.20 (UBet)