Randwick // 3rd September

Saturday takes us to Randwick for the featured running of the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and Tramway Stakes (1400m). Winx returns and is a current hot favourite to take out the Chelmsford Stakes.

There looks to be a fair bit of rain around Sydney this week and we could see the track downgraded from its current Soft rating to Heavy. Wet track form will be important for this meeting.

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Photo: The Randwick Grandstand

R1 Schweppes (bm80) 1600m

Signposted has won his last three starts, all of which on wet tracks. Bolted home by 4 lengths last start on a heavy track and loses weight here. Will look to lead the entire way and will be hard to beat. So Willie found the line very nicely last time out, however the trip his is 400m shorter. Usually runs well at this distance and loves a really wet track. Should be competitive with Bowman on board and down in weight. I think Zayam is a good each way chance here. He obviously wasn’t right last start, however he has shown some great potential at this track on wet ground in the past, and wouldn’t be surprised if he caused an upset here. Bolord enjoys this distance and has won second up in the past. Was promising last start on soft ground and found the line well. Salthouse looks to be a promising, lightly raced gelding, however is unproven on a wet track and hence I’m inclined to leave him out.

One For Exotics: Zayam

Prediction: 1-5-2-7

Verdict: Signposted

R2 Tab Supports Jockey Trust-bm78 2000m

Dubaiinstyle has gone 2 in a row now and looking for three! Loves the wet tracks and and should get a nice sit from barrier four. One of the key players here but think that the increase in weight may catch up with him here. Dowdstown Charlie kicked well last time out to finish a close second behind Paragon. Loves wet tracks and drops 2 kilo’s here. Will give this a big shake up. Lanciato has good soft track stats, and ran on okay last time out. Loses some weight which will help but yet to win over 1600m an issue. Rainbow Park ran well last start to finish second at nice odds. Only win on a soft track at this distance, and loses 3kg here. Could be a sneaky outside chance. Zero To Ten and Dure the next best at each way odds.

One For Exotics: Dowdstown Charlie

Prediction: 6-4-5-10

Verdict: Dowdstown Charlie

R3 Daily Telegraph Ming Dynasty 1400m

 

High Mist found the line well last start after finding himself back in the field. Has won and placed on a soft track before and the wet looks to help him here. Won first up last prep and this looks achievable. Skylight Glow has won on soft ground before and will be fresh. Will carry the most weight but enjoys sitting on the pace. Not out of it. Taj Mahal will be fitter for last start, and the increase in distance will help. Has potential and will look to impress here. Only query is no form on wet tracks. Swear scored a very nice victory earlier this year and is yet to race since then. Was a highly valued colt at sale and will want to go on with it here. Keep very handy.

One For Exotics: Skylight Glow

Prediction: 4-1-2-3

Verdict: High Mist

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Galaxy Warrior bolted in last outing 4.5L with 61.5kg! Loses 2.5kg on that run and should be quite dominant here. Was his first run on soft ground last time out, too. Grand Rouge has been close to a break through of late and scores a nice weight relief here. Enjoys this distance and proven on a heavy track, keep handy! Squidensquizz has won more than once on a wet track and has also won at the distance. Wasn’t too far behind them last outing and also loses some weight. A good each way chance. Luxury likes a soft track however is yet to place at the distance. Railed nicely last outing to finish well, and loses weight on that here. Wider chances are Trying, No When To Hold Em, and Assurity.

One For Exotics: Grand Rouge

Prediction: 1-11-4-2

Verdict: Galaxy Warrior

R5 The Mostyn Copper Group (bm92) 1400m

Tsaritsa is a very good horse. Was absolutely flying last prep, and only stumbled when drawn inside at Eagle Farm, on a day where the track near the rail was horrendous. Bags of potential and really like her, she should be right up there. Burning Passion fell narrowly last outing, where he held 5.5kg more than he does here. The track was fairly disastrous that day too so there are a few excuses for him. The drop in weight will help a lot, as well as the wet track where his best form lies. Look for him to be just behind the leading pack and to be swooping late. Syper Tycoon is shooting for 5 in a row here! Has been flying on the soft tracks in Sydney and dropping 2kg on last start will definitely help. Step up in class but this isn’t out of the question. Torgersen has some form behind Syper Tycoon and gets a bit of weight swing on him here. Will be tough, but with some luck he could sneak home. Testashadow and Zin Zan Eddie the next best.

One For Exotics: Super Tycoon

Prediction: 5-9-6-7

Verdict: Tsaritsa

R6 Fitzy & Wippa’s Fast & Furious 1200m

I Am A Star was a huge winner last outing, beating the highly fancied Leotie who went on to win last weekend. Looks to be the most talented horse in this race. One of the best chances of the day. Get on. Honesty Prevails was only 3 lengths behind them in the Golden Slipper. This is her first race since then and the jury will be out, but definitely in the mix! Awoke looks a horse who really enjoys a rain affected track. 2 from two in her short career and has bags of potential. Trialled well on a heavy track in the past and is amongst the good chances here. Global Glamour won her only start at Kembla Grange on a heavy track by 6.3L! Good signs for her on todays bogged track. Has trialled very well since then and this looks a realistic hope. Foxplay is another one who has shown potential. She won a 2YO Handicap on a soft track a couple back but yet to run on heavy. Keep safe. For wider exotics include Rather Sweet. She won her maiden on a wet track last time out, and the trial prior to that she won on a heavy track by nearly 3 lengths.

One For Exotics: Honesty Prevails

Prediction: 1-12-2-8

Verdict: I Am A Star

Quaddie: 1 2 7 8 12

R7 Tatts Club Chelmsford Stakes 1600m

Winx has been scratched! The champ mare won’t run here which leaves the door open for a few others here. Prized Icon showed glimpses of ability as a 2YO and now resumes a year older. He was good last outing running on with a big weight, and now finds himself 10.5kg to run 8.5kg lighter than any other competitor! You’d think he’d be too good with that advantage. Hartnell is placed both runs on a heavy track and looks to be the only threat. He loves it second up and will look to sit in the box seat here. Has great ability and must be respected. Who Shot The Barman is second up and has won previously on a heavy track. Among the wider chances. Preferment has a horrible first up record and think this might be too tough.

One For Exotics: None

Prediction: 8-3-2-1

Verdict: Prized Icon

Quaddie: 3 8

R8 Tattersalls Club Tramway Stks 1400m

Le Romain is second up for Kris Lees and hasn’t missed the quinella at this track or distance. Really rate his ability and has won on a heavy track before. Dibayani put in a great performance last start and loses a bunch of weight off that. He’s won at the track before but yet to score on a heavy track from two runs (second and third). A talented horse who must be respected.Sadler’s Lake is up in class but drops a few kilo’s. Great second up stats and doesn’t seem to have an issue on a heavy track. Right in this race. Happy Clapper is first up and finished strongly last time out before being spelled. Great soft track record but unproven on heavy. Easier class here and will have it’s chance. Gust Of Wind had a great run of form last prep finishing well in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. First up here and has won first up before. A heavy track is an unknown but you’d think he’s a sneaky chance for a boilover!

One For Exotics: Gust Of Wind

Prediction: 1-9-5-6

Verdict: Le Romain

Quaddie: 1 2 5 6 9

R9 James Boag’s Concorde Stakes 1000m

Japonisme resumes after running third in the BTC Cup earlier this year. Has some serious ability this one and usually runs well first up. Has won on a heavy track in the past. Federal also resumes after his second in the QTC Cup earlier this year. Loves this track and has won on his only start on a heavy track. A big chance. Craftiness has some serious first up stats which must be respected. Yet to run on a heavy track but soft track runs have been very good, and also loves this distance. A good chance at nice odds. Hidden Pearl is nicely weighted after winning easily last outing. Has some ability but doesn’t like a heavy track and think that others in this race are just simply better.

One For Exotics: Craftiness

Prediction: 1-5-7-10

Verdict: Japonisme

Quaddie: 1 5 7

 

Moonee Valley // 3rd September

Moonee Valley this week for Cox Plate qualifier raceday. A relatively quiet week last Saturday with 1 collect from 4 bets, we did nab the quaddie though. Hard to predict what the track condition might be on Saturday but with potential showers forecasted between now (Thursday) and the weekend it could get a downgrade to no worse than a Soft 5/ 6.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $200,000 McEwen Stakes (Race 5) and the $250,000 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Race 8).

All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 1600m

Going for Dulverton here provided the track has some give in it. She drew off the track and finished hard to just go down to Bonnie Belle. Has a good record over the mile, she should be in the finish here with the weight drop. Kaniana will take some tossing. She responded well to hard riding to score by 2 lengths over this distance last start. She’s drawn well and gets the senior rider on board. Baby Don’t Cry has her first run at the mile. Her recent efforts have indicated she wants the extra distance but this is a class rise. Choice gets the blinkers back on today. She was disappointing last time but was jumping from 1200 to 1600 second up. Forgive. Takeover might lead and prove hard to catch, is the blowout at $17.

One for exotics: Bonnie Belle ($12)

Race prediction: 7-9-3-2

Verdict: Pass.

Race 2 Open Handicap 1600m

Raw Impulse is perfectly weighted to kick off his campaign with a win. He won over 1500 here first up last prep and won his next two on the trot at short odds before getting too far back at Randwick. Sadaqa looks to be up on the pace. He loves this track and distance and is usually thereabouts. Last chance today. Master Zephyr resumed and ran well from midfield. He was never a threat on that occasion and i think he might need this run also but look for him to be running on. Shamkiyr brings strong Hong Kong form but is 16 months fresh. Observational isn’t hopeless.

One for exotics: Sadaqa ($14)

Race prediction: 5-9-7-6

Verdict: Raw Impulse W@2.20.

Race 3 3YO Open Handicap 1514m

Not interested in this race from a punting perspective. Hey Doc has the class and resumed for a win over 1200. Has performed well down the straight second up. Lord Macau should be up on the speed and looks ready for this trip. Benny Goes Berzerk will be hitting the line hard, runs well on rain affected tracks. Larrikin can go on with it after his win last time at big odds. Rocketeer looks smart and has returned in good fashion.

One for exotics: Larrikin ($34)

Race prediction: 4-12-1-3

Verdict: Pass.

Race 4 Benchmark 78 1514m

Wheatsheaf Flyer was an eye catcher when second up finishing hard behind Prince of Brooklyn. Won third up last prep over the mile on a wet track, as long as the bias isn’t dead against he’s right in this. Mr Individual has drawn wide and there looks to be a bit of pace in this race. 1400 seems to be his pet distance and although he isn’t without claims there doesn’t seem to be much value at 4.40. Zahspeed has a poor first up record but was only 1.6L away first up last preparation over this track and distance. Will be including at big odds. Vostok never got a crack at them last start and is on the quick backup here. Was comfortably held by Mr Individual when they met last time. Moss n Dale beat the flying Grand Dreamer last start easily. You can line him up through his effort prior behind Prince of Brooklyn, he looks under the odds here despite the good draw.

One for exotics: Wheatsheaf Flyer ($14)

Race prediction: 11-2-1-10

Verdict: Wheatsheaf Flyer E.W@14:4.40.

Race 5 McEwen Stakes (G2) 1000m

Think Heatherly will be one to follow this preparation. Ran over this track and distance first up beating a similar quality field. She tired late but still held on, should be fitter second up. Drawn wide but hoping she can get the lead or take a sit. Wild Rain was super first up. She’s had plenty of time to recover and comes into this event 7 weeks fresh. Flies over 1000 metres and is 2 from 4 at the valley. Sheidel has trialled well and is always around the mark. She’s placed 9 from 11 (winning 6) over 1000 metres and was slightly unlucky here fresh last prep. Those are the 3 main chances for mine but others with exotics claims are O’Malley and Furnaces. Keen to see the return of Chloe In Paris also.

One for exotics: O’Malley ($15)

Race prediction: 8-6-5-4

Verdict: Heatherly W@2.80

Race 6 3YO Atlantic Jewel Stakes 1200m

Sebring Dream has had two career starts for a win and a second behind I Am a Star (Who beat the majority of these last start) where she finished strongly. The distance suits, if she’s right she can win this first up. Whispering Brook was the star 2YO in WA last year. If she’s come on at all she should be very hard to run down. Athena Lass stuck on well last start when a month between runs in a race where there was a run-on bias. She’s another that can rail well if she gets the lead and be tough to catch in the short straight. Oregon’s Day boasts a win over Highland Beat. That form seems good enough for this. Oliver sticks on Merriest. She started 1.80 favourite behind I Am a Star and Sebring Dream before failing and being spelled. She didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up but unsure if she would’ve been in the finish. Not risking.

One for exotics: Oregon’s Day ($14)

Race prediction: 9-1-13-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16

Verdict: Pass.

Race 7 SAJ Fruit Supply Stakes 1200m

Sticking with the Regal Roller form and putting Voodoo Lad on top again. He overraced as usual but was still far too good last start. Jungle Edge has twice ran very well since franking the form. Drawn well. I think Rich Jack should’ve won last start. He was clearly the best of the on pacers last start and if he got clear a fraction earlier he may well have won. Drawn well. Le Bonsir was very wide last start and just tired late. He gets significant weight relief and does look over the odds at 41$. Fast ’n’ Rocking has drawn the widest barrier here, looking for a more positive ride with the Jockey change. Fast Cash will get back a long way from the barrier as well, think Fast ’n’ Rocking is a better swooper if the bias allows.

One for exotics: Rich Jack ($34)

Race prediction: 3-13-7-1

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14

Verdict: Pass.

Race 8 Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes (G2) 1600m

Going for one at odds in The Cleaner here. He didn’t enjoy the best of luck first up after the pace was hot and his win over this track and distance second up last prep was very impressive. He looks the likely leader with no Lord of the Sky, has won 4 from 9 second up and boasts a 53% win rate at the mile. Miss Rose De Lago walked in over this track and distance last preparation. She should be hard to beat again after a strong first up win despite the wide draw. Suavito got too far back first up. She’s another who races very well second up and i’m willing to give her another chance. Jameka ran well first up when i thought she might want further. Like her record here. The United States has won first up at Moonee Valley over 1500 metres in weaker company. He’s on track for a melbourne cup and I think he might just need this run, i’ll still be including him. Tosen Stardom has never won below 1800. Cant have him as favourite in this race despite his strong Japanese form.

One for exotics: The Cleaner ($16)

Race prediction: 3-12-10-14

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 10, 12, 14

Verdict: The Cleaner E.W@16:5.50

Race 9 Open Handicap 2040m

O’Lonera looks the one to beat again. He’s up in class but down in the weights. Drawn wide but with even luck in running he should lead them all the way. Swacadelic finished off nicely first up at an unsuitable distance. He loves the tight track at the Valley and looks a good chance at odds here. Pin Your Hopes didn’t have the easiest run last start when leading. Would like to see him take a sit here; looks ready to win now his third start at 2000. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record over 2000 metres, i don’t like the fact he’s unplaced from two runs here. Will be hard to hold out from the good draw. Aloft is the big unknown. First run in over a yearend Ollie gets the steer. Might want further though. Bold Sniper had the run and won well last start, will be tough from the very wide draw.

One for exotics: Swacadelic ($21)

Race prediction: 13-5-6-2

Quaddie selections: 5, 6, 13

Verdict: Pass.

Rosehill // 27th August

Horse-Star_Turn-94849-636x424

Photo: Star Turn wins the 2016 San Domenico Stakes last weekend.

Great card today for the featured Run To The Rose at Rosehill. Star Turn should start favourite after knocking down the door of the San Domenico stakes last weekend.

The track looks to be rated a heavy one with a bit of mid week rain.

R1 #theraces (bm72) 2000m

Birds Of Tokyo bolted in by 6.3L last start, beating Firebird Flyer. First start at the distance which could be an issue and recent trial wasn’t convincing. Firebird Flyer finished quite a distance back behind Birds Of Tokyo two starts back, however she gets a nice weight turn around here. An honest horse who loves a wet track. Northern Journey has a great heavy track record. Scored a great win last time out and has previously won at the distance. My Guiliano beat Firebird Flyer in his maiden win, and probably didn’t enjoy the short distance prior to that. Big query here is the heavy track, yet to place on heavy but has run well on soft in the past. One that could cause an upset is Erika. Was priced well last start in the Birds Of Tokyo race but didn’t fire. Forgive that run; she usually loves a wet track!

One For Exotics: Erika

Prediction: 2-3-1-5

Verdict: Firebird Flyer W @$3.80

R2 Strassmeir (bm82) 1500m

Extensible cruised home to victory for us two weeks ago, winning by 1.8L over Labdien. Loses half a kilo here and looks a good thing! Only query is the heavy track, but has shown ability on soft. Pirate Ben is a horse that has good ability. Was very dominant towards the back end of last prep, however yet to find any form in this one with big weights. Loses 5.5kg here and will be a key challenger. Shards is a horse with great ability! Has been contesting some big races this year with no real luck. Drops back to a bm82, however the downside of that is the top weight. Weight may make it too tough. Antonio Guiseppe had his first run on a heavy track last time out and won by 1.3L. Loses 5kg on that here which will put him into the race. Rhodin Drive a sneaky chance at long odds.

One For Exotics: Pirate Ben

Prediction: 3-5-1-8

Verdict: Never jump off a good thing! Extensible W @ $2.50

R3 St Mary’s Rsl (bm70) 1400m

Evacuation looks a colt with exceptional potential. Bolted home in first competitive start, and then did the same in two trials (the latter on a heavy track). Key contender for this. Cocoexcel won nicely on a heavy track at Kembla last time out. Remains at that weight here and is another with great potential. Keep handy. Savvan ran second to Cocoexcel last time out, and turns around 2kg on that run here. Could cause a shock here at some very nice odds. Swear won on debut at Hawkesbury paying a juicy $12. Only 1 run on a wet track where finished 6th of 9 behind Cocoexcel at trial. Rise in weight won’t help but don’t dismiss. Sezanne found herself on a heavy track and won her maiden last time out! Took a bit to get going but maybe has turned a corner now?

One For Exotics: Savvan

Prediction: 4-8-10-2

Verdict: Evacuation looks a star but this race is full of young horses with great potential. Might stay out of this.

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1100m

Alliterate was disappointing last start but never usually fires first up. Has been a contender in some big races of late and loses some weight here which will be handy. A good chance at big odds. Hanwritten actually beat Ball Of Muscle on debut! A good young horse with some serious potential. Unproven on heavy ground, though. Beside You has won three on the trot and was particularly impressive in the most recent. Two wins have been on soft track and should be right in this. Farah finished just behind Beside You last time out. Loses a bit of weight and plenty of upside. Keep handy! Leami Astray tried to do too much last start, attempting to lead the whole way. Could respond here but untried on a heavy track. Perizada and Moss My Name among the wider chances.

One For Exotics: Alliterate

Prediction: 11-3-12-10

Verdict: Rate Alliterate highly here at nice odds. Alliterate EW @ $13.00/$4.00

R5 On Point Locating (bm80) 1100m

Open race this! Shahrazad scored well first up and runs here 2kg lighter. Wasn’t too far back last start but that was on a dry track. Is a good horse who can give this a shake. Rose Of Man ran fairly well last start, considering she was a ranked outsider. Never really performed well on a heavy track, however the drop in class will help her here. Allez Chival is consistent as ever. Last three runs have been on a heavy track however can’t seem to find that breakthrough this prep. Drawn well in barrier 1 which should help. Alucinari has form lines around Heatherly and Palazzo Publicco. A talented mare who, if can handle the big weight, can contest this. Zoumagic has been great this prep, finishing in the quinella every start. She likes it wet, but on her only heavy start didn’t fire. Keep handy. Momma’s Snitzel the next best, however her recent trial is a bit of a worry…

One For Exotics: Allez Chival

Prediction: 7-9-4-2

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

R6 Racing Mates (bm85) 1200m

I’m a big fan of Sir Bacchus. He’s a very smart horse who has some serious finishing ability. Never lost at the track or at the distance and will be hard to stop here. Untried on a heavy track the only query. Snoopy was held up badly last time out. Barrier 3 will help him get out nicely and just sit off the leading few. He looks a great horse who should be right in this. Handfast is a good horse who has won well first up in the past. Was on fire last prep and is first up here. Hasn’t performed well on a heavy track in the past but faces lesser competition than last time out. His Majesty dashed home late last outing to score an impressive victory! Drop in grade but big rise in weight which might make this too tough. Encostanati doesn’t mind a heavy track and loses a couple of kilo’s here. One for wider exotics. Kellyville Flyer also enters the wider chances after drawing an inside barrier!

One For Exotics: Encostanati

Prediction: 4-9-6-5

Verdict: Lots of winning chances so staying out.

Quaddie Numbers: 4 5 6 7 9

R7 Mta Run To The Rose 1200m

Feature race of the day and have a look at the quality of some of these! Mediterranean took a bit to get going last time out but flew home late to narrowly miss. Loves a heavy track and think he is going to be a star. Star Turn ran a beautiful race last time in the San Domenico stakes. Got bucketloads of potential and loves a soft track. Untested on heavy? Impending won impressively on debut, however didn’t fire as a short favourite after that. Obviously has potential but yet to see any competitive run on a wet track. Keep handy. El Divino is undefeated from 2 starts (both on wet). Half brother to Winx and is a key hope who looks to be in for a massive prep. One at long odds that could cause a boil-over is Telperion. Closed very well in the Slipper (best final 400m), and then battled well for 2nd behind Yankee Rose after that.

One For Exotics: Telperion

Prediction: 9-7-4-3

Verdict: Really like Mediterranean and very tempted by the odds of Telperion. Mediterranean W @ $5.50 & Telperion EW @ $16.00/$4.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 4 7 9 10

R8 Premier’s Cup 1900m

Singing made his first Australian start last time out and narrowly missed on the post after sitting nicely in the box seat. That was his first run under 2000m and will be fitter for that. Encouraging run on the heavy track, too. Allergic put in a really tough run last time to score a great victory. Gets minor weight relief and has the quality, the only query is no prior heavy form. Loophole finished 1.5L behind Allergic last outing, and does have some good wet track form. Turns around 1.5kg on Allergic here which will bring him right into this race. Ruling Dynasty gets back out to a reasonable distance after moving back to 1400m last time out. Ran well first up and this isn’t beyond him. Include Magic Hurricane for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Loophole

Prediction: 6-3-7-4

Verdict: A couple of winning chances but happy to have a bet on Loophole. Loophole W @ $8.00

Quaddie Numbers: 3 6 7

R9 Tab Rewards (bm78) 1350m

Chetwood loved being first up last time out. He looks to be a very promising horse with a bright future. Drawn inside and won on heavy previously, all big ticks. Cannyescent was only narrowly defeated by Chetwood last start. Earns a 1kg weight advantage on him here and will have every chance. Labdien was great last time out, although beaten 1.8L by Extensible. Drops back in grade and has every chance. We’re Sure won very nicely last time out. Doesn’t mind this track and has some good wet track form. Will go close. Conarchie fell a few lengths short to We’re Sure here but turns around a few kilo’s too. Great heavy track form and a very real chance. Earlier this year Orcym Sam wasn’t far off of Danish Twist, and being first up here could be an inclusion for wider exotics.

One For Exotics: Orcym Sam

Prediction: 2-9-11-3

Verdict: Fairly open race and will sit this one out.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 7 9 11

 

Moonee Valley // August 20th

Just the one winner from 4 bets last week, it was a good one though getting backed from $4.00 into 2.30 and never looking in doubt. There looks to be a few showers between Wednesday and Saturday so it’s more than likely that we’ll be racing on a Soft track. It’s very important to monitor the track bias at the Valley.

The headline races for Saturday at Moonee Valley are the $120,000 Mckenzie Stakes (Race 5) and the $120,000 Carlyon Stakes (Race 8). All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 Benchmark 96 2500m

There isn’t a whole lot between the top 3 in this one. Black Tomahawk looks a good thing to turn the 0.1L margin on Au Revoir. He took an eternity to get going down the straight and although the Valley isn’t ideal, the services of Craig Williams and the low weight should get him home here. Araldo Junior is impossible to catch but three runs back he absolutely brained them from the front over this distance. Did look to have every chance last start. Try Four took out a maiden hurdle last start and beat home recent city performer Oncidium Ruler prior. He’s in this. Au Revoir and Refectory for wider exotics.

One for exotics: Refectory ($13)

Race prediction: 3-2-4-1

Verdict: Black Tomahawk for the win. Black Tomahawk W@3.00

Race 2 Benchmark 78 1600m

Liked the way Archean hit the line first up. He’s won second up before and should be in the finish here. Laqha didn’t show her best first up in a race the suited the swoopers. She has a liking to the Moonee Valley circuit and has a terrific record at the mile. Dont count her out. Caprese finished alongside of Archean last time. He has a very good record here but think Archean has more upside. Grand Dreamer is another who ran well first up. Has a good overall record at the mile and should be running on. Miss Denni is another horse second up with a chance. Beat subsequent winner Kaniana home last time, usually races a bit flat second up though.

One for exotics: None

Race prediction: 5-3-2-9

Verdict: Archean is worth a bet at the odds. Archean W@6.00

Race 3 4YO+ Mares Benchmark 90 1200m

I’m a big fan of French Emotion. She resumes here and bolted in over this distance fresh last preparation. This looks to be her pet trip but she does look short enough in a class she’s never won before (90 grade). Refuse to Lose lead all the way last time and has a great record at 1200. She has measured up in town before. Foreign Affair comes out of the same race as Refuse to Lose and she didn’t enjoy the best run in transit last time. She’s always around the mark. Rockolicious closed well first up. She’s never won second up and might want further now. Blinkers first time and form on wet are big ticks. Vibrant Rouge can’t seem to return to the winners circle but she’s knocking on the door. A repeat of her effort last time will see her in the finish. Needs it dry. Unsure about Catch a Fire as all of her form is 3YO restricted.

One for exotics: Refuse to Lose ($15)

Race prediction: 2-6-9-3

Verdict: Looking for one to beat French Emotion but can’t find it. French Emotion W@3.20

Race 4 3YO Fillies Plate 1200m

Really tough race. Zamzam is a big watch from the Hayes and Dabernig yard. She has two wins around this circuit and does her best racing over 1200. Sweet Sherry’s one win came first up down the Flemington straight on debut. She wasn’t disgraced in 4 very tough races since including the Golden Slipper and the Blue Diamond. Ariaz looked smart on debut beating Motown Lil easily (Racing here). She then went to the Breeders stakes and found one better. Immediately spelled. Respecting Piccadillies on debut, whilst Moonlover is my pick of the maiden brigade.

One for exotics: Moonlover ($11)

Race prediction: 1-2-4-12

Verdict: No bets.

Race 5 3YO Colts and Geldings Mckenzie Stakes 1200m

Going with Dam Ready here. He resumes gelded and should take great benefit already having a win around this course. Has drawn off the track though. It was hard to miss Ken’s Dream on debut at Echuca. This is a big step up but he could be something special. Verstappen also walked in on debut but on the synthetic track. Oli takes the ride. China Dream gets the blinkers on first time. He was only 2 lengths off Flying Artie at start number 2. Could be the blowout. Rampage and Throssell go in next.

One for exotics: China Dream ($21)

Race prediction: 3-8-7-4

Verdict: No bets.

Race 6 Open Handicap 2040m

Pin Your Hopes has a nice weight swing and looks to be well suited back on the rain affected track. There is a bit of a question mark over his ability to run out a strong 2000 but i’m willing to give him another go. Tooleybuc Kid looks well suited here second up. Flew home from last first up to just fall short of the flying Royal Rapture and steps up another 300 metres in distance. Only issue is he took his time to get going on that occasion and not so sure the tight Valley circuit is ideal. Killarney Kid has an impeccable record at 2000 metres. He seems to perform a bit better on top of the ground and his record at the track (2:0-0-0) is worrying. Yulong Baby will be hard to hold out with just 52.5. Bold Sniper can bounce back down in the weights. Has beaten Master of Arts this prep. Golden Mane is always thereabouts in these sorts of races. He isn’t ideally suited on the weight scale though. Prima could be the blowout. He lead all the way last start and wasn’t far away from the likes of Yulong Baby and Golden Mane back in February.

One for exotics: Tooleybuc Kid ($11)

Race prediction: 3-4-1-8

Quaddie selections: 1, 3, 4, 8

Verdict: Giving Pin Your Hopes another chance. Pin Your Hopes W@7.00

Race 7 Open Handicap 1500m

There’s no doubting Pilote D’essai was huge first up and he looks a group performer this spring. He’s drawn the widest barrier here which will be no easy task and $2 looks a bit of a risk. Royal Rapture is in top form and there’s no reason he can’t win again. This race does look tougher than his effort last start but he is flying, just needs some cover from the barrier. Nevis is a handy frontrunner on his day and could take some catching around this track if he gets an easy lead. Onpicalo is another likely frontrunner who loves the jar out of the track. He’s drawn well and bolted in here three back. Most of these runners are stayers that will likely need the run but Pemberley has proven he can handle the short distances. He bolted in first up last prep over a rather weak field but the first up and distance form are big ticks.

One for exotics: Nevis ($11)

Race prediction: 9-3-2-5

Quaddie selections: 2, 3, 5, 9, 12

Verdict: Pilote D’essai should be winning but not excited by the barrier. No bets.

Race 8 4YO+ Carlyon Stakes 1000m

Heatherly is the one to beat here. Her win in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield when leading all the way was unbelievable. She beat some good horses on that occasion and followed it up with a 0.8L 3rd to Flamberge and Fell Swoop. She’s drawn well to lead, loves the short trip and has won at Moonee Valley twice before. Wet track the only concern. Shiraz looks a huge chance here first up. He’s proven at the top level and is a genuine winner (10 from 20). Drawn to get a soft run and will be in the finish. Wild Rain trialled like a star and performed accordingly first up. The form from that race has been okay and she loves the short going. Going to need some luck from the barrier but has to be included. Beau Rada does all of his best racing at the Valley. Beat Sheidel here last prep. I’m a fan of O’Malley but this looks a bit tough first up. Wary of Williams jumping on Keen Array but he just wasn’t good enough last prep for me. Needs to lift. I’ll also be keeping a keen eye on Diamond Oasis first up for Weir.

One for exotics: Beau Rada ($26)

Race prediction: 5-1-8-10

Quaddie selections: 1, 5, 8, 10

Verdict: Shiraz looks the safe play on the wet track for those interested in betting. No bets

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1200m

This is a seriously tough way to finish the quaddie. Many of these met down the straight two weeks ago and the majority of them will race significantly different around this circuit. Fast Cash has drawn wide here which will make it very difficult. His late sectionals were fantastic first up, he’s a winner second up and likes moonee valley. If anyone can guide him to victory from 18 its Oliver. Shaf was dominant in that race first up. He doesn’t have the best stats on paper but he can’t be ignored. Rough Justice has a good record second up and at the valley. He should take great benefit from the run first up. Magicus is 4th emergency but is a must if he gains a start. Magnus Reign beat home Voodoo Lad two back before not firing a shot last time. He has a good record at Moonee Valley and is generally around the mark at 1200. I have my queries over Jungle Edge but he was pretty impressive last start.

One for exotics: Rough Justice ($13)

Race prediction: 10-6-4-18

Quaddie selections: 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 18

Verdict: No bets.

Rosehill // 13th August

Back to Rosehill this week which gives us some quality horses preparing for the spring carnival. Capitalist returns after last week’s scratching and will look to recreate his form as a 3YO in the feature $150k San Domenico Stakes.

R1 Fairfield Rsl Club (bm81) 1400m

Although she finished third last start, Extensible was very promising and finished off the race well. The lightly raced mare fought on bravely and is yet to miss the placings in her career. Looks a real treat. Frill Seeking has been finding the line with Extensible of late and will be around the mark here once again. Does lose half a kilo to her here which won’t make it any easier but with a bit of luck could surprise (she has been improving). Tree Of Jesse found things tough at Randwick last start, but then again so would most in those horrid conditions. She is a nice 5YO who has won on a wet track. Look for her to be finishing strongly. Labdien was disappointing first up last time out, carrying a huge weight. Drops 4.5kg’s here which will bring her into the race. 1 from 1 second up. Taltarni not the worst chance at big odds too.

One For Exotics: Taltarni

Prediction: 6-3-4-7

Verdict: Think Extensible is going to be one of the better chances of the day. Extensible W @ $2.90

R2 C. Mcalpine Tribute Highway-c2 1100m

Open race this. No When To Hold Em is a promising 3YO Filly who has been in a good patch of form. Comes up against older rivals here but a convincing run last start on a heavy track shows that she can handle a wet track. Beside You went 2 from 2 when she won by a length at Coffs Harbour last time out. Hasn’t done anything wrong yet and could run a very nice race here. Luxury was disappointing last start but will be fitter for the run. Has shown us what she’s capable of last prep, however the sharp rise in weight won’t help here. Farah was good last time out and nearly pulled off a good win being wide all race. He’s a very consistent horse who will be looking to make the most from barrier 7. Stop The Fight and Vixen Lass all chances at longer odds.

One For Exotics: Stop The Fight

Prediction: 13-12-1-5

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

R3 Dooleys (bm78) 2000m

This is such an open race. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win. Dubaiinstyle won well for us last weekend and ate up the heavy track. First go at 2000m which may well suit. More Than Fabulous has been as consistent as ever and drops to kg’s here which will help. Loves a soft track but drawn wide, and will need to get out fast to have a chance. Firebird Flyer was a fair way off eventual winner last time out but the run was promising on such a heavy track. Is a promising young mare who could give this a real crack. Magical Stance has been running in races much higher in grade than this, and has been running admirably. Placed 2 from 2 at this distance and is one of the better chances. Doukhan will enjoy the soft track and won 2 of 3 second up. Rock Mylady, Egyptian Ruler, and Elusive Runner all half chances at long odds too.

One For Exotics: Rock Mylady

Prediction: 9-4-10-2

Verdict: Another lottery! No bets.

R4 St Johns Park B.c. (bm72) 1500m

Pirate Ben finished last prep with 3 wins in a row and nearly began this one with a win, narrowly falling by 0.4lengths. Does have a big weight, however the apprentice claim will help. Be fitter for last start and is a great chance. Lanciato hasn’t fulfilled the potential seen in his first Australian run 3 starts back. Didn’t have a lot of room last time but if he can settle well here he’ll give himself a good chance. More To Gain had some great runs last prep towards the end of last year. Didn’t strike first up last time out but will be fitter for the run. Zaunkonig went from winning a maiden to a bm65 to an admirable run behind Pioneering last start. Has potential but jumping so wide won’t help. Tennessee Fling just keeps improving. Her only competitive run on soft she won by 4 lengths. Keep handy at a nice price. Darci’s Affair, Caton & Chaos with minor chances at big odds.

One For Exotics: Darci’s Affair

Prediction: 1-13-3-5

Verdict: An open race but the start of Tennessee Fling’s career excites me and happy to have a small each way bet on her at $12/$3.75

R5 Smithfield Rsl San Domenico 1100m

Small field of six contest this, but gee aren’t they all some talented horses. Capitalist returns after two very good trials and after being scratched last weekend. The Golden Slipper winner is a beaut of a horse who will want to recreate his form as a 3YO. Star Turn was a ranked outsider in the Golden Slipper, running just over three lengths behind eventual winner Capitalist. He turns around 4kg on him here and that should see him run very competitively here. Tango Rain beat last Saturday winner Thronum by 1.3 lengths last start. That is good form going into this race, however he may be lacking in talent in comparison to this lot. Still, 2 from 2 and hard to knock. Manolo Blahniq is an overseas horse who will make his Australian debut here. Won a trial at Hawkesbury and could cause an upset.

One For Exotics: Manolo Blahniq

Prediction: 1-3-4-2

Verdict: A close race probably between Capitalist and Star Turn. Not keen on taking either at such short odds.

R6 Merrylands Rsl Prem Cup Prel. 1800m

Marenostro had a good win last time out, and consequently gains 3.5kg’s to total 60kg here. It is a lot of weight but the appointment of apprentice jockey Koby Jennings (a2) will help. He’s a class horse and the inside draw should help. Rate him highly. Allergic hardly ever runs a poor race and while finishing 6th last time out, was only a couple of lengths behind Marenostro. Turns around some weight on him here too which brings Allergic right in to the race. Likes a soft track and is good at the distance. One that seems massive over-odds is Slow Pace. At the start of the year he actually finished just 0.2 lengths behind Marenostro carrying the same weight, while he has 6kg less here. The race after that he finished 3.2 lengths third behind Allergic, carrying 2.5kg more! 7kg weight swing on that ride and if he can recreate that form he’s a great chance at big odds. May have been a purple patch of form for the 9YO gelding but if he’s at his best he can contest. Sacred Master got going late last time out and was brought over here for the group 1 Metropolitan and hence the increase in distance will help him out. Sweet Fire drops 8kg’s on her last run and could run a nice race too.

One For Exotics: Slow Pace

Prediction: 2-4-10-5

Verdict: Think Marenostro is a good bet at juicy odds and can’t believe the odds given for Slow Pace. Marenostro W @$5.00 and Slow Pace EW @$26/$7.00

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 5 7 10

R7 Canterbury Rsl Spring Preview 1400m

Open race this. Testashadow has had a bit of a spell the last few months. Hasn’t won first up before but he absolutely loves a soft track. Will be one of the key hopes. Cosmic Cube has also had a bit of a break, and returns with a big weight. He’s a great horse and ran well in his last start to just fall short in the Doncaster. Like him a lot but the weight might ask too much of him. Oxford Poet is a good horse who has been running very well this prep. Doesn’t mind this track and distance and will look to get up front and lead. If he can get out early from gate 11 he’s a real hope. Ruling Dynasty is a real hope here for James Cummings. Finished only marginally behind Oxford Poet last start and has shown in the past what he’s capable of. Zin Zan Eddie has good form behind Oxford Poet of late too. Ran only just behind him last time out with a weight advantage of 1.5kg, and now extends that advantage to 2kg. Going off that, there’s no reason he can’t win.

One For Exotics: Zin Zan Eddie

Prediction: 9-2-4-5

Verdict: Very open race. No bets.

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 5 7 9

R8 Clubsnsw (bm92) 1100m

Snoopy is unbeaten first up and the close third to Mahuta last prep looks great form! Hasn’t lost on a wet track and Tommy Berry on board are two massive ticks. Kangarilla Joy trialled well after a good last prep. Also unbeaten fresh and on a soft track but the wide gate won’t help her here. His Majesty ran a close third to Danish Twist in the Provincial Championship in April. Haven’t seen a lot of him since then but don’t rule him out. El Sasso goes in for fourth after a promising start to this prep, and he doesn’t mind a wet track either. Savoureux not the worst at long odds too.

One For Exotics: Savoureux

Prediction: 12-10-8-4

Verdict: I think the top three will be hard to beat. Snoopy gets a better barrier than Kangarilla Joy and therefore think he’ll be on top. Snoopy W @ $4.00

Quaddie Numbers: 8 10 12

R9 Mounties Group Handicap 1350m

We’re Sure has raced in some pretty big races this prep, and has been running better than what the placings suggest. He’s a good horse who will give everything here. Coolcraft resumed last start after a very long spell and ran quite well. Will be much fitter for the hitout and is one of the best chances in this race. More To Gain looks a good chance at some nice odds, with a decent wet track record. Dinghu Mountain is 1 from 1 at the track/distance and loves a soft track. Hard to leave out. One that can run well at big odds is Rhodin Drive. Consistent horse who runs well first up and won 2 on a soft track. Ever So Natural is short odds at the moment and I’m not too sure why. Hasn’t been convincing so far this campaign and yet to win on soft.

One For Exotics: Rhodin Drive

Prediction: 13-11-14-4

Verdict: Fairly open race to finish the day. Not sure any of these are clear winners, however wouldn’t mind a small place bet on Rhodin Drive at $9.50.

Quaddie Numbers: 4 11 13 14 16

Randwick // 6th August

Saturday racing in New South Wales takes us to Randwick with the running of the Group Two Missile Stakes (1200m) and the Randwick City Council Rosebud (1200m). Some good horses running today which should make for a great days entertainment.

R1 Powhf Louisa Hope (bm78) 1800m

Harlem Lady gains 5 and a half kilo’s on her last start where she finished 1 length clear in a bm85. She’s been ever so consistent in higher grades than this in the past. Is a good horse but the only queries are the increase in weight and the fact she hasn’t raced at this distance before. At face value it seems as though she’ll enjoy the extra trip. Firebird Flyer went from winning her maiden to winning a bm71 last time out. Not many can do that and definitely keep handy. Will enjoy a wet track. Defrost My Heart hasn’t been very convincing of late, although her 2nd here two starts ago shows that this isn’t beyond her best. A bit of a shorter trip here which may well suit! Erika has put a few nice runs together now, and although this is harder she stays low in weight.

Verdict: Think Harlem Lady should win but a couple of winning chances.

Prediction: 2-3-1-4

R2 Powhf Roy Billing Oam (bm74) 2400m

Get On The Grange* won well two starts ago in a bm75. Up in weights but some promising runs of late should see him run well here. Lie Direct has been very consistent lately and should sit him well here. Meets Major Major better at the weights here and should be well in this. More Than Fabulous has been running well too and loves a wet track. First go at this distance and hasn’t won at this track before are the only negatives. Braces won last start and before that has shown how much he loves a place! Very consistent gelding and will be around the mark here too. Major Major also a chance from a wide barrier.

Verdict: I think theres not too much value around More Than Fabulous at the $3.70 mark. Get On The Grange has been good and has proved more than the rest here.

Prediction: 1-8-3-2

R3 Jockey Celebration Day (bm81) 1000m

Kangarilla Joy has made a cracking start to her career, winning 3 out of 6 so far and hasn’t lost first up. Does add 6.5kg to her last run in the Fireball Stakes behind some quality horses. Will be fighting til the end. Hot Hit meets Three Sheets 1.5kg better than last time out and has been great this prep. Looks ready to win. Three Sheets has been going well lately. Disappointing not winning last start when backed in to $1.95 favourite, however the two runs before that were great. In with a chance here. Last Witness has won two in a row and is running well of late. Hasn’t won at the track or distance which is a concern.

Verdict: Think its a race between the top 4 favourites. Kangarilla Joy is the best horse in this race but the big weight will give her a challenge. Hot Hit looks ready to win, while Three Sheets and Last Witness all have a claim.

Prediction: 1-7-5-4

R4 Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Appoint Percy* hasn’t missed the top four since coming over to Australia from NZ. 2 runs first up for a second and third, and 100% record at the track and at the distance. Plenty of positives about him.Explosive Scene drops 4kg’s on what was a good run last start and that should see him be right around the mark. Boasts a half a length second to King’s Officer three starts back. Attainment loves a wet track and so if the track here is heavy, look out. Even still, he’s in good form and is a chance here. A Magic Zariz is a fine young country horse who has strung two in a row. Tougher here but wouldn’t surprise.

Verdict: Appoint Percy is in fine form and going to go with him here.

Update: With Appoint Percy scratched, it opens the door for Explosive Scene and Attainment; also keep an eye on Snipps Parade.

Prediction: 6-5-4-12

R5 Mark Moran Missile Stakes 1200m

Capitalist will return if the conditions suit and will start hot favourite. If he runs you’d expect him to bolt in. If he doesn’t, it’s probably a race between Rebel Dane, Generalife and Big Money. These three are all good horses who have shown what they’re capable of at some stage in the past.

Verdict: If Capitalist runs he’ll win. Too short at $1.55 for mine though!

Update: Capitalist won’t run which will open up the race. Rebel Dane should probably win with Generalife scratched. Big Money comes in to be rated second, with Mount Nebo picked for third.

Prediction: 1-3-4-5

R6 Randwick City Council Rosebud 1200m

Mediterranean* has not lost on a rain affected track so far. Flew in last start to win by nearly two lengths. Looks one of the best chances. Thronum won his maiden at Kembla Grange before blowing them away in a 2YO Handicap at Randwick. Missed the start last time out which cost him the race. Not beyond him to bounce back. Quick Feet looks like a winning chance also. Was a Golden Slipper runner and trialled well since then. A good horse who must be respected. Hair Trigger finished well just behind Thronum last start. Gains half a kilo on him here though. One at odds who is in this is Lasqueti Spirit. Her last run was encouraging and performed well at big odds in a fairly big race.

Verdict: I think Mediterranean is going to be a star. Short odds here but happy to take them at $2.30.

Prediction: 3-2-1-4

Quaddie Numbers: 1 2 3

R7 The Wallaby Cup (bm78) 1600m

This is a really open race! Quick Defence will start favourite after bolting in last start by 3.5 lengths. Didn’t start off this prep very well but returned to winning ways. One of the better hopes. Suboric, while finishing 5th last start, wasn’t actually far off them with a big weight. Drops a kilo and has been flying. A great chance. So Willie is a good horse who will be looking to improve on last start’s close second. Hold’s his weight but the wide barrier is a query. Dark Eyes finished with them very well last start and can’t be ignored. Dubaiinstyle is a great hope with a good weight turn around on previous runs against those in the field, and Big Arty can definitely threaten after a few good runs.

Verdict: Too open for a bet so let’s go wide in the quaddie.

Prediction: 3-5-7-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 3 5 6 7 10

R8 Powhf Directors (bm83) 1200m

Dixie Blossoms* was G3 placed in her first prep. Ran some very nice races and we saw a glimpse of what she’s truly capable of. Won fresh last time and this looks a good race for her. Tree Of Jesse was really disappointing last time. Went back to trial where she ran well. Is capable of winning races like these at nice each way odds. Viaductress will be fitter for her first up run last time out. Drops 5kg’s here which will give her every chance. Tremor was really good last start finishing a close second at Rosehill. Loses 4kg’s on that run and this looks easily winnable for her. Others with a small chance are Allez Chival and Rock On Zariz.

Verdict: We went wide in the quad last leg so lets trim this down a bit. I think Dixie Blossoms will be hard to beat, but the ones that could beat her are Tree Of Jesse, Viaductress and Tremor.

Update: No Tremor here, and Allez Chival was scratched from race 9 to run in this one. Definitely keep handy!

Prediction: 2-8-4-6

Quaddie Numbers: 2 4 8 6

R9 Rotary Club Of Botany Bay-bm78 1200m

Burning Passion won brilliantly last time out by 3.5 lengths. He looks a great horse but gains 5kg’s which will make it a challenge. Chetwood‘s opening preparation was excellent, running third to Lady Sniper in the Gosford Guineas. He looks a promising sort and should have relished the break. Likely to give this a shake. Cannyescent is probably the next bet chance. 2 from 2 first up, and both wins on a wet track. Keep handy. Star Shaft the best of the rest.

Verdict: I think that Chetwood has the edge over Burning Passion, purely based on the latter’s heavy weight.

Update: Chetwood scratched and the only two that look like threatening here are Burning Passion and Cannyescent. Still keep Star Shaft handy.

Prediction: 2-11-13

Quaddie Numbers: 2 11 13

Best Bets:

R2 – #1 Get On The Grange EW @ $8.00/$2.40

R4 – #1 Appoint Percy W @ $3.70

R6 – #3 Mediterranean W@ $2.30

R8 – #2 Dixie Blossoms W @ $4.20

 

 

Flemington // 6th August

Flemington // August 6th

The good horses are returning from the paddock and spring is just around the corner. The Box Seat is back and looking to get off to a winning start this Saturday at Flemington. It a 9 race card for Racing Rewards Raceday.

The headline race for Saturday at Flemington is the $150,000 Aurie’s Star Handicap (Race 7). All 9 races are covered in our thorough analysis below including our Race Prediction, One for Exotics, Betting Verdict and Quadrella Numbers.

Race 1 3YO+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 84 2000m

Savannah Moon showed great fight to fend off the challengers at Flemington two weeks ago when in trouble. She’s a much better horse this preparation and i think she can go back to back. Khutulun was well backed, well ridden and walked in last start. 3 starts in as many weeks is a bit of a question mark but she relished the quick backup last week. Az Given took advantage of the leaders bias at Moonee Valley 3 weeks to claim a solid victory. I think Savannah Moon can turn the tables on that last encounter but she isn’t without a chance. Yulong Baby was a noted drifter at her last start and performed accordingly. She gets a nice weight drop today but not so sure 2000 metres is ideal. Cinnamon Carter best of the rest.

One for exotics: Cinnamon Carter ($16)

Race prediction: 4-1-3-2

Verdict: Happy to have a small bet on Savannah Moon. Savannah Moon W@4.00

Race 2 3YO Benchmark 70 1400m

Zubaqa looks a classy filly in the making. I’m unsure if she’ll measure up over here but the way she won last start was impressive. Odeon and Loch Oir fought out the finish at this track and distance two weeks ago. It’s hard to see anything from behind turning the tables but I have to go with the winner Loch Oir with Ben Allens claim (despite losing the flying Williams). Lessyd is a winner down the straight here and looks well suited to 1400 off his first up effort. Brookwater ran well first up, this is tougher.

One for exotics: Lessyd ($16)

Race prediction: 3-2-6-1

Verdict: No thanks.

Race 3 Open Handicap 2000m

Pin Your Hopes is absolutely flying at the moment. He’s a completely new horse this preparation and should prove very hard to beat again despite the weight and distance rise. Killarney Kid has an exceptional record over this distance and has a liking for Flemington. He looks very well placed here. Lucques is the best roughie for mine. He’s a pretty talented stayer and might need another run but has won second up before. Golden Mane was well backed off the freshen up and just missed, the form looks good. Almandin has solid 2000 metre form from France. I think he might just need this run but it wouldn’t shock to see him storm over the top of them.

One for exotics: Lucques ($26)

Race prediction: 3-2-6-5

Verdict: Pin Your Hopes to keep building the picket fence, too short to back at 2.40. No bets.

Race 4 Open Handicap 1700m

Cannot believe Royal Rapture was $15 last start. He had a stack of weight and did it easy over the mile. Drops 4kg and is drawn to get the run of the race, surprised bookies are offering $3.80. Petrology is a nightmare for followers but he does have claims in this event. Not getting my money. Falago is dropping back in distance and has been in work for a long time but he does have claims at double figure odds. Taiyoo will probably need the run first up with this weight but he is all class when right. Lord Durante does his best racing elsewhere and happy to risk.

One for exotics: Falago ($10)

Race prediction: 4-2-5-1

Verdict: Royal Rapture to go back to back, Petrology could blow them away or run last. Royal Rapture W@3.80

Race 5 Open Handicap 1400m

It was hard not to be impressed by Ulmann last start. He was given the gun run by Williams, stalked the favourite, took over at the 150m mark and never looked in doubt. Don’t take too much out of his Flemington record as his efforts have been behind Malaguerra and Turn me Loose. Duke of Brunswick was a sitting duck last start and beat all bar one. He is building quite the record of finding one better but should have every chance from the good barrier. Gracious Prospect generally runs well here and should be fitter third up. His best is good enough. Pilote D’essai is the big query runner. One run in Australia for a dominant win, unbeaten fresh. Sadaqa is capable of a form turnaround.

One for exotics: Gracious Prospect ($26)

Race prediction: 6-5-9-11

Verdict: Think another last start winner can go on with it. Ulmann W@4.00

Race 6 Benchmark 90 1000m

What a way to start the quaddie. The lightly raced O’Malley hasn’t been seen for a while but he ticks all the boxes. Rough Justice is a proven straight tracker and flies fresh. Runsati wasn’t suited at weight for age but looks a big chance on his run prior. Profit Share is untried at this trip but he’s a big talent. Trevinder doesn’t usually run well here but its hard to ignore his fresh run in stakes grade. Valiant Warrior is unbeaten second up and has performed well down the straight. Wary of Shaf, Risen From Doubt, Hard Romp and Le Bonsir. Cannot justify the sub $5 for Gun Case.

One for exotics: Rough Justice ($11)

Race prediction: 12-3-14-5

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 14, 15, 17

Verdict: One of the most open races on the card. No bets.

Race 7 Aurie’s Star Handicap (G3) 1200m

Another tricky straight race. Mighty Like was terrific first up over this track and distance. He usually runs just as well second up and will take a stack of beating with the handy weight drop. Ruettiger looks the biggest danger. They both have formlines through Voodoo Lad and although Ruettiger has more upside I think Mighty Like is the more talented horse. Finally broke through last start and can go on with it. Magnus Reign had a cruisy run last start and should only benefit from a drier track. Not suited by the relative weights though. Mr Chard has had his fair share of problems but is a talent when right. Also wary of Smart Volatility. Beirut and Sooboog are dual acceptors in a G3 in Adelaide, both seem under the odds but are chances. Sooboog with the blinkers back on is the pick of the two.

One for exotics: Magnus Reign ($17)

Race prediction: 4-9-10-7

Quaddie selections: 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13

Verdict: Think Mighty Like is worth a bet at the current odds. Mighty Like W@7.50.

Race 8 4YO+ Mares Benchmark 84 1200m

Miss Softhands was scratched last week and looks well placed here. She was just warming up late first up and has an excellent second up record. Has won at this track and distance and $10 is overs. Lahqa is 7 weeks between runs and usually runs well fresh, must be included. I thought Nadeem Lass would be in the finish last week but she was quite disappointing. Giving her one last chance back to Flemington. My Sister Lil didn’t have the best of luck last start, don’t know if she would’ve tested the winner though. Kaniana had the best closing splits at her last start but she was entitled to run on. Cannot justify $5.50. Just Stellar goes in next.

One for exotics: Miss Softhands ($10)

Race prediction: 1-3-4-2

Quaddie selections: 1, 2, 3

Verdict: Another mares race with a stack of chances. No bets.

Race 9 Benchmark 78 1200m

Tyrranize was 6 weeks between runs last time and was just run over by the 101$ pop Astro Castro. Oliver will give him every chance here and the extra 100 metres suits. Heza Ripper was backed off the map last start and led all the way; the form from that race has been good. Untried down the straight but looks the biggest danger. Badajoz looks a danger with the nice weight swing, he did have every chance last start though. It wouldn’t shock to see Camdus bounce back, he was awful last start. Take on trust but he looks short enough at $6. Blithe Belle impressed last week and can go on with it.

One for exotics: Blithe Belle ($12)

Race prediction: 17-3-7-11

Quaddie selections: 3, 17

Verdict: Might have a bet on both Tyrannize and Heza Ripper. Tyrranize W@4.40. Heza Ripper W@7.00.